A quick change in rainfall totals reinforces the changing tides of farming - Kelly Nieuwenhuis

Hello, I'm Paul Yeager. Welcome in to the MTM Podcast Studio here at Iowa PBS. This week we are going to be looking at the weather, specifically water again and to much of it, heavy rains in southwest Minnesota, southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa have made a lot of headlines. We talked to one of the farmers in that region to find out what he has in his fields, as he is outstanding in his field. We'll get to that in a moment. And we find out what else is going on with friends that he has across the state, the region and the country when it comes to corn production. Kelly Niewenhuis is our guest. He's in Primghar, Iowa. We've had him on the show before to talk about various things. renewable fuels could have gotten into carbon pipelines, but we did not. We stick to the weather and what's happening in conditions. If you have feedback for me, send me an email. Paul.Yeager@IowaPBS.org. New episodes of this podcast at each and every Tuesday in both video and audio form, you can watch this discussion and just exactly see where Kelly is and how an old joke lives on. One of my favorite farm jokes, Kelly, is you're outstanding in your field. Are you outstanding in your field right now?

[Nieuwenhuis] Well, I'm on the edge of one of my fields right now, so I'm standing on the edge of the road that, there's water between me and the field, so I'm now going through it.

[Yeager] What, what field is that? When do you think it was planted?

[Nieuwenhuis] Well, this was our last field, the corn planted. It was planted May 14 or May 15th. We started April 13th planting corn. This field is patterned tile. It's not within my closest creek - it is a few miles away. But this particular farm stands in the middle of April. It is bumping up against 30 inches of rainfall.

[Yeager] That's like an annual. That's an annual amount, isn't it, Kelly?

[Nieuwenhuis] Yeah. And I've got a field just a couple of miles north of here. That's almost 32 inches since the middle of April. So it's, it's been pretty excessive, the rainfall events.

[Yeager] Is that a stark contrast to the last couple of years for you?

[Nieuwenhuis] You know, I talked about the end of ‘22 and ‘23. I had 15 consecutive months that I never had a rainfall amount at an inch or more. We got a lot of 2 or 3 tenths, you know, half inch. But, all of a sudden now we're getting to the point where if we get a rainfall event, we're hoping it's under an inch. So it is a complete flip from the last few years.

[Yeager] You are in northwest Iowa, but I would call it the southern part of what had the most rain last week. Is that pretty accurate?

[Nieuwenhuis] Yeah. You know, I live about ten miles south of here, and I had about 10.5in last week. And my home place here, I had probably bumping up against 14, in that time frame. So we've had some recent big events and the worst one was early, last Saturday morning where we had, six inches in this area just, overnight.

[Yeager] Is that reminiscent of any other time that you remember?

[Nieuwenhuis] Yeah. You know, I've had about six of these, years in my 41 years of farming, 1983, 1993, 2011, ‘18 and ‘19 were really wet. And now again in ‘24. But, I have to tell you, a 1993 was the first worst year of farming of my 41 years. And this farm here right behind me, that was the only year I had prevent planting. I could never get this farm planted, so ended up putting oats in it as a cover crop in July just to keep the soil bacteria working.

[Yeager] Iowa Secretary of Ag Mike Naig, has a farm. I don't think too terribly far from you. I mean, I guess in the countryside. And he had said the same thing. 93 is his comparison as bad. And I you know, I take his word of, you know, he lived up there at that time. He knows that you're confirming it as well. Any other similarities yet between ‘93 in this year for you?

[Nieuwenhuis] You know, other than the rainfall, really not. ‘93 was so cold. It never warmed up. We didn't see the sunshine. and then we had frost in September, in mid September. And that was pretty much the final nail in the coffin for ‘93 growing season. I averaged 40 bushel corn that year and 11 bushel soybeans. And, you know, I'm pretty. I call it a crop failure today if I'm under 200 bushel corn. So we know how drastic 93 was, and I don't think we're going to be there this year. I think we've got a lot better tiling done. farming practices. You know, just the technologies and the genetics that we have to use today are a lot better than what we had to deal with in 93.

[Yeager] And if you've watched the show the last couple of weeks, we had one analyst who said how dry we were. You were dry last year. We just talked about, but even when we're dry, we still produce a good crop. The old adage of rain makes grain. Does that send a little shudder down your spine when I say that?

[Nieuwenhuis] Well, for my soil types, it does because the years that I mentioned earlier, those are the years that my crop production were their lowest. You know, I averaged 243 bushel last year in all of our acres in and in somewhat of a moderate drought, or you're not quite extreme, but pretty dry conditions. And our soil types are pretty heavy clay base. They hold moisture, excess moisture is detrimental. And I've seen a lot of crops that are severely damaged. you know, this field doesn't look real bad today, but there's areas out here that have standing water. you know, if it doesn't get off pretty quick. I've seen that corn just dies, just because it suffocates and the lack of oxygen in the soil.

[Yeager] Well, yeah. We're going to go for a drive in a minute. literally or figuratively. but tell me about that field right behind you. When's the last time you had water like that?

[Nieuwenhuis] Well, it was 2019. And at that time, you know, we got things planted good. And then we had the excessive rain come down. I had three foot corn that year that was right behind me. And I ended up having about 25 acres out of the 148, had water sitting on it. and it wasn't real deep, you know, 2 to 4 inches of water. And it died. so, you know, I just slowly watched the corn turn brown. I'm hoping with the tile stuff we have done today, it gets off quicker. So, the corn will survive.

[Yeager] Now, granted, we're watching this, a little pixelated, and the color is a little off. Is that field yellow? More than green behind you?

[Nieuwenhuis] Well, yeah. There is a streak through the middle of this farm, and you can see the higher ground. It actually has pretty good color to it. But wherever it's, a little lower lying areas, it's still got good tile patterns, patterned tiles under it, but the water just can't get away quick enough. And, the roots are probably not developing real well there, and it's not being able to get to the nutrients. So, hopefully with sunshine and drier weather, it greens up and starts looking a little better.

[Yeager] If we were to hop into the pickup and start driving around this neighborhood, what would we see?

[Nieuwenhuis] Well, if I go into areas where there are cracks, you know that rainfall event the other night, we had flash flooding. I got up early Saturday morning and went for a ride, and I drove five miles to a field by Paulina next to the plane at Mill Creek State Park. And in that five miles there were seven places where water had gone over the road. it was gone already. I mean, it came up and it went down quickly. But then we got to Paulina and the town of Paulina. There's roads coming in from all four directions, and the only way you could get into Paulina was from the West. The other three roads had a foot or two of water running over them. So, that's what's heading down to Sioux City right now. And Omaha and creating flooding in South Dakota, Nebraska and western Iowa.

[Yeager] When you go north of, you, southwest Minnesota, southeast South Dakota, any of those areas stand out, agriculturally with more damage from what you've seen with friends?

[Nieuwenhuis] Yeah. I've got a lot of good friends up in southwest Minnesota, and they're as bad. Or maybe it could be even worse than this area. I've seen photos from there. A lot of water. Southeast South Dakota is in the same kind of situation. Excess water, ponding. And so it's covering a pretty large area and it's a pretty good producing area. I guess, you know, right here where we're standing, this is the largest producing corn district in the US. And so we've got acres that are hurt and we've got even acres that aren't rounded out. The fringe acres around there are going to be struggling. So they're stressing their yield drop is happening. So we definitely have a yield loss for 2024 crop right now.

[Yeager] And you mentioned earlier some that might suffocate. Do you see crop loss being an issue?

[Nieuwenhuis] Yeah. There's going to be areas where it's zero production. And you know I've learned in the past just five acres of an 80 acre farm. If it's zero, that'd take ten bushel an acre off the average yield or more 10 to 15. And then again, like I said, all the fringe areas of those are probably half of production. And so, yeah, it's definitely, and we've definitely got a yield reduction in our area.

[Yeager] And then you see the markets keep going lower and lower. That's gotta make you feel good. Right?

[Nieuwenhuis] You know, it's been that way every year. I've had excessively wet weather and that and have because of that mentality of rain makes grain. I don't know. Thought in ‘93 we had a little spurt in the prices right after harvest, after the combines rolled. But it was short, short lived. It bumped up. I think we got as high as like $2.45 back then. So, you know, I think, they'll recognize the fact that we had yield loss here, but it's going to probably take until the combines roll to prove it.

[Yeager] Well, even then, the market and USDA don't always believe it.

[Nieuwenhuis] Yeah, I get it. That I live in that….

[Yeager] Wasn't going to get political. Kelly. Sorry. I didn't mean to.

[Nieuwenhuis] That's part of it.

[Yeager] Do you feel,  I guess what is the emotion right now?

[Nieuwenhuis] Oh, I tell you, people are pretty stressed. You know, crop losses are bad for us as farmers. we're insured. And you know what's really good about the disaster at a catastrophe is the cities and towns, the flooding that's going on there. You know, in our area, we got Spencer in Rock Valley and Rock Rapids and Haywarden and LeMars, Cherokee, Sioux Rapids. You know, these towns are devastated. Businesses are devastated. the flooding was extreme. Probably the worst I've ever seen. And, you know, I'm hearing there's a lot of people that are not insured. And so, yeah, it's a pretty tough mindset right now for individuals or citizens of these areas. But, you know, there's strong, support from other people going to help people in need. So, you know, we always pull through these situations, but it's definitely kind of working out in everybody's, mentality.

[Yeager] For you, as you drive around, you kind of talk about, it gets worse in certain areas. and again, I had a friend up in Lyon County, northwest super northwest Iowa, who said the same thing. Quick up, quick down. Does that give you a little false sense of hope when it goes up and goes down so quickly?

[Nieuwenhuis] Well, you know, the one of the differences I've noticed is, you know, I've got a lot of new bridges in our county from back when I started farming in 1983, the first year of the flooding. And they built these new bridges. I've got three of them in one area that I farm that they raised them six feet. They made them longer. They actually qualify them for 500 year floods. And you know, having the water sit longer really destroys the crop. You know, it's better to get it off there quicker. But then it gets down to Sioux City and places quicker too. So it's all kind of works hand in hand. I could actually hate to say this, I could use a light shower right now because of crops that have been flooded, were under water, and they, they're covered with mud. And that's never good for their growth potential. So you no need to rinse them off. But we don't need any big rains.

[Yeager] Half an inch will do you just fine.

[Nieuwenhuis] Yeah, a quarter of an inch for two is fine. I think so.

[Yeager] Yeah. And over a day, not over ten minutes.

[Nieuwenhuis] Yep. Exactly. There's a nice light rinsing shower.

[Yeager] I follow you a lot on X and I noticed you had some cover crop photos this year. How have those fields performed? at least with the eye test. And have you had a chance to walk into them and see how they're doing through this?

[Nieuwenhuis] You know, those are some of what I call my quicker soils. They're a little higher, a little more roll to them. And the reason I have them and cover crop is because of erosion. It prevents erosion. They actually look all right. I did it differently this year. I had the right cereal rye flown on last fall. In September. it came better than I thought it would this spring. But then, with all the wet weather, we weren't able to get in and plant as early as I would have liked. So I had cover crop that was 18in tall and everybody's telling me, you got to plant a green. Well, I didn't know if we were going to get in there in the next ten days. So I had it terminated and it worked out all right. When we got in there, the cereal rye was terminated, but it was still standing. So I got in and we know tilled the beans into it and, and they look pretty decent right now. No, it's definitely not a lack of moisture. It's a lot different than two years ago when I did it. And then we had extreme drought. That was really tough on them. But, right now, my no tell cover crop beans look pretty decent.

[Yeager] What was your planting window this year? When was your earliest. And I think you said when your latest was already. Yeah.

[Nieuwenhuis] Well, we actually started April 13th and we were about the only ones rolling. We ran the 13th, 14th and 15th and then that's when the rain started. And then it was like the 25th before we got back in and planets some more. And then we had another rain delay and then we got up here on May 15th to plant the last cornfield. Then we started during the beans and we actually finished planting our last beans on June 13th. So we have a two month planting window where it's normally, three weeks at the most or 2 to 3 weeks. So it was pretty much a stand it. And, you know, I've always had agronomy friends that tell me we need to spread out our risk as far as planting dates. Well, we certainly did that this year.

[Yeager] Yeah, I had to look. I'm like, wait a minute. Today's the 26th of June, so those beans are barely up.

[Nieuwenhuis] Yeah, they're barely up. And we haven't sprayed any of our soybean fields yet. But we are pretty fortunate. We put on a preseason and it's actually working really well. but we're going to need to get in and get our post application done here pretty quick there. that'd be another issue or a weed pressure. So, it's never ending. And, you know, I used to think the 4th of July, we'd be all done with everything, or we normally are. I don't think we'll be done by them.

[Yeager] When you talk about that window. Let's go back to that early, early corn there in the first few days of April that you planted down here. Anyway, that's some of the stuff that looks the best. Is that the same up there for you?

[Nieuwenhuis] Yeah. Yeah, they look pretty good, actually. Took a picture of the one field next to the flooding and it's just high. looks pretty good. It's a higher elevated farm. And so, yeah, our early fields are our, some of our best. They were slow to emerge. But this seed nowadays has a lot of strength. I know you know, it took four weeks of summer for that corn to emerge. But the stand’s pretty good. you know, this last field we planted May 15th had perfect emergence. Other than the spot right behind me, that's replanted, about two weeks ago and hoping it survives, but not sure because of some of the water still sitting on it.

[Yeager] Kelly, you also have involvement with Iowa Corn, which means you have access to very good reports from friends around the state. That's, you're on the board with. Are you in a different position than anybody else in Iowa?

[Nieuwenhuis] We've had a lot. You know, I've got friends. I we just have actually had an Iowa Corn alumni celebration the other night, last Wednesday night. And, you know, it's hard to believe that I'm now an alumni of Iowa Corn and actually are on the National Corn Board. So I have friends from all over the country that have been calling me, asking how things are. And, you know, it's surprising from about central Iowa and Iowans, they would love to have a rain. they're they're showing crops, stress from heat and lack of moisture. So it's definitely a country divided right now. The Western Corn Belt seems that will be excessively wet. Northern and western and some of the eastern seems to be leaning the other way.

[Yeager] So and I, I saw this morning, one of our market analysts in their newsletter was talking about North Carolina. I saw some pictures of Georgia pictures. any friends down there confirming that? Hey, they're in that tough boat, too.

[Nieuwenhuis] Yeah, it's just so spotty. you know, the conditions around the country. I was in Missouri a couple of weeks ago and, you know, saw corn down there that was traveling and, you know, that look pretty decent. I know they were somewhat wet, but not to the extent that we are. So it's definitely another variable year. it's going to be different all over the country.

[Yeager] Is there ever not a variable year anymore?

[Nieuwenhuis] No, there isn't that.

[Yeager] We have to. That's the only thing consistent is inconsistency. Right?

[Nieuwenhuis] Pretty much. And, you know, it's extreme weather events. we go from extreme drought to extreme flooding in a 12 month period. And, so it's definitely interesting, you know, talking about 2011, I remember that because Interstate 29 was closed because of flooding. And then 2012, we had one of the worst droughts in the country ever. So, you know, tides can change in a hurry.

[Yeager] Exactly. You can go from dry creeks to creeks that are on those 50 or 500 year bridges that you're referring to. Yeah. In just a couple of short days.

[Nieuwenhuis] Exactly.

[Yeager] Kelly, as we close, overall prognosis where do you like the set up right here? even though it's flooded right now?

[Nieuwenhuis] Yeah. You know, I never give up on a crop. we're going to keep scouting. you know, I'm pretty confident we'll be applying fungicide to our corn acres. you know, this year with all the rain bacteria might be an issue and fungus. And so we're going to keep treating this crop the best we can, because our goal is always to produce as much as we can and as little as we can. So, we won't give up on this crop. there is that drowned out now, though, you know, I guys, I'm going to be flying our cover crop or putting our in something out there just to hold the weed pressure down. So like I said, it's going to be a different situation, but, we don't give up on a crop.

[Yeager] And, we don't give up on you, making time for us. Kelly. I greatly appreciate it.

[Nieuwenhuis] Oh, happy to visit with you Paul.

[Yeager]

Our executive producer of market to market is David Miller. Our production supervisor is Chad Aubrey. Our audio technicians and engineers, Sean Ingrassia, David Feingold, Kevin Rivers, and also production support from Neal Kyer and Julie Knutson. I'm Paul Yeager, who serves as your host of this podcast, also the producer and editor. Thank you for watching. We'll see you next time. Bye bye.