Minnesota is now the land of 60,000 lakes after spring, summer rains - Brian Thalmann

Hello, I'm Paul Yeager. This is the MTM Show podcast, a production of Iowa PBS and the Market to Market TV show. We are in season nine, and we're going to hit hard this season, the growing season and those who grow food and fiber across the country. We talked to a farmer in Iowa last week about flooding. Now we're going to Minnesota, and in the next couple of weeks, we'll step in with our farmers that we are talking with through this growing season to see how things are going for them. So there is a look ahead for the next couple of episodes. But it has been raining a lot in southern Minnesota, and that is what our guest today is going to update us. He's done some math on how much is hit, how much of a challenge it's been to get the crop into the field for him and his neighbors, and we'll get a little perspective about just grain markets in general, about what's kind of happening in his part. Is it enough to change the markets? Probably not, but it's enough to paint a story about what some are going through. And that's what we're going to find out today with Brian Thoman. He is in Plato, Minnesota. He's also on the National Corn Growers Association board. He took time to go stand out in a windy field. Normally you like the wind when it's been wet to dry things off, but it's almost a little insult to injury. It is helping. Don't get me wrong, but we're going to talk about what it's going to take to get. Are there any conditions to get a good crop this year? We'll have that discussion right now in this podcast here, which comes out, by the way, new episodes each and every Tuesday. But now let's go to the fields of Minnesota. Brian, we've made it into July, but I'm guessing your fields still think it's like May and June. Is that about right?

[Brian Thalmann] That's about right. We have had one heck of a spring. We started back March 15th, so the feels dry enough to be out in the field picking rock. We see it's a wheat. Then here we are early July. And there's still some neighbors fields that haven't been planted yet.

[Yeager] Do you think they will get planted?

[Thalmann] Oh, they've thrown in the towel. Last week. you know, it's forecast for limited rain and a couple inches came again. So, there's people trying to actually go out and even control weeds and in the fields that were planted and, and they're still too wet. So they just kind of walk away and let Mother Nature do its thing until we get some drier weather for an extended period of time.

[Yeager] You are south, I call it west, you're probably almost straight west of, well, southwest of the cities. and Minnesota's known for being the land of 10,000 lakes. From everything I've seen online, it looks like it's more like 20,000 lakes in the state this year.

[Thalmann] probably 40 to 60,000. This area is. Yeah. We're about 50 miles west southwest of Minneapolis. straight north of the Iowa border. About 100 miles is where we're located, but we're kind of on the northern edge. That whole area from northern Iowa to us has been the one that's just been inundated with excess moisture for the last 30 days.

[Yeager] You said you started trying to do stuff back in March. Did you have windows where you felt, oh, this is going to be easy. Were there any of those this year?

[Thalmann] There were actually a middle of March. We seeded 80 acres of wheat. We normally don't, but we had some land. We may want to put some green tile in and plan to do that after the wheat is harvested. We're picking rocks and we're looking around and thinking it's too early to plan corn, but we have some nice conditions for planting corn, but we generally don't start before April 20th and we get into April. Some rain started coming. I look back on April 24th and 25th. We had a two day window down in the second half of April with good planning. Conditions are well tile ground and that corn they have to see looks quite good. It's five feet plus high. We use all spring applied fertilizer. We incorporate half to two thirds replant, and then we come back with the rest. After planting with the rains that we had, it was perfect. Having that nitrogen in the upper soil profile. So those fields look well, I was aware of, you know, some water as pot and so on. But after that then we got into me and, there was just a 1 or 2 day window a couple times in May. And, and that was really about it for prime planting conditions.

[Yeager] When did you, we'll say before any replant, when were you done with planting?

[Thalmann] We managed to get our corn finished Mother's Day weekend, and then we had rain right after that again. And there was a big push by farmers in the area to get done because there was more forecasted rain. And the last three summers we've had drier than normal summers they forecast an inch of rain, maybe get a 10th or two. So you have that mentality. But knowing that things are going to change at some point. And they did. But, there was a push to get as much corn as they can. A couple of fields I think didn't get planted corn. Then people switched to the mindset of planting beans, but then you'd get three days of dry weather and the fields that were a little bit wet just about got dry, but the wet areas that were left was maybe 10 or 15% of that field.  You're going to wait another day or two for that to dry. Then it rained again. That just kept going on. We had some windows in there. We did finish our beans Memorial Day weekend, but just the south of us, 10 to 20 miles. There's pockets again that haven't got planned yet to this day. And once we get into June, they said, okay, we got to rethink things. We can't wait for 100% of the people to be ready. Let's plant 80%. That's ready. Well, then it rained again. Then it was down to 50% that was ready. And, we're also in the seed business, so we've got some growers that were attempting to get specific soybean varieties in. And that makes it a huge challenge because you can't just switch to an earlier maturity bean. You have to get in the acres that were planned until it just gets too late. You have to abort that. But they had no choice but to plant part of a field, lay in the planter, go to a different variety in a different field, ready. And it just created a whole lot of challenges.

[Yeager] It's one heck of a cycle. It sounds like everybody's been around you.

[Thalmann] It has. And we were fortunate again. We got our fields planted. We do a little custom farming south of here. And we managed to get that planted June 12th to the 15th and we didn't get it all in, but we got about 80% of those acres. And then the fields that were left again, you know, they tried to plant those until ten days ago. And I was kind of bored of that on some of the fields that were planted earlier. They may or may not have been the ground that was drained a little bit better. So planning, you know, if the ground would dry out enough, there was the thought to go and replant some of those little spots in the soybean fields. But I think a good chance of storms again for us tonight into tomorrow and then again, middle of the week, end of the week. So I think it's pretty well time just to call it quits and concentrate on the crop that is there and take care of that, that the rascal.

[Yeager] Well it is windy today and that's why I even said it sounds like a or it looks like a May,  April day with the wind, because it's always, always seems to be blowing in the spring. So whatever drying it's doing is, is especially with the rain in the forecast, it's, it's really just more of an annoyance than a benefit.

[Thalmann] Yeah. I mean, the wind is good to get rid of some moisture. The air has been fairly dry the last couple of days. yeah, we had some humid days earlier, but interesting enough, you know, the weather, like you said, it does appear like kind of some, some May weather conditions. I just recently realized that by now, we would have had at least half a dozen days, over 90 here in Minnesota. We have not hit 90 degrees once this year. So here last we had multiple days and in June already. And our average high is 8485, a little bit cooler than it would be, you know, once you get to Iowa Illinois. But nonetheless it still was going into the hottest part of the summer. So that is a definite concern among, crop farmers, yourself included, that we've got these wet conditions, but we need some heat to go with it. So the crop it is there can still benefit and get going. But you get this cool pattern, cool and wet. And that just does not tell the plan to do a whole lot more than just to kind of sit there in a holding pattern that that roller.

[Yeager] Brian, I was talking to your national corn grower board member Kelly Nieuwenhuis house down in northwest Iowa. And you're not too terribly far from him. What he told me is this year. Yeah, it's like 93, in the sense of a lot of water, but it was much colder than it's been colder for you there. What year does this remind you of?

[Thalmann] While we would agree on this would probably be similar to ‘93 for us. I remember having a hard time thinking back that far. I know we had a wet, cool summer. We ended up with a bunch of water, probably similar to what we have now, but the entire summer was cool and that is, so disheartening. 2014. We had a really wet year. We had heat to go with. It's so hard there. Wasn't drawn out, still burned out pretty well. So, we'll have to see what happens here. But but yeah, 93 would be a similar correlation to this area as well.

[Yeager] Were you in that pocket that was, super wet in 2011 and then dry in 2012. Did that hit you like others?

[Thalmann] No, it did. We were further north than that. You know, the 2012 drought was probably centered more in the ice states. So we were actually fortunate that year we had a respectable crop. And, and, the grain prices as well.

[Yeager] Now the river flows north for you, but let's go down what I would always think downstream. But south, in Mankato, where the blue earth really made the news last week. It was something that we saw here. It went national. what's the what happened between where you're at in Mankato to give us a perspective of just how much water there was.

[Thalmann] Well, the other huge problem with the dam, the Blue Earth River south of Mankato and Louis River, actually, I believe, starts with some water coming in northern Iowa. So that water is flowing north about 50 miles to Mankato, so that dam joins the Minnesota River and the Minnesota River heads to the northeast. The Twin Cities in our location here, west of the Twin Cities, our water also heads to the Minnesota River. It all joins together with Mississippi. And then it hits back, you know, south to the Gulf of Mexico. So there's just a huge amount of water joining and even past where we are. So that's only going to make matters worse as you get down stream.

[Yeager] Well, in years past, I, okay. I'm sorry, months past, we've talked about the Mississippi having problems shipping things in September, October and November the last couple of years because of dry conditions. It doesn't look like you'll be talking about that. this year at any of your national corn growers meetings.

[Thalmann] You know, it's crazy what a difference a 12 to 18 months can make. Because exactly. There is a problem getting barges coming up the Mississippi River, bringing fertilizer up into northern states. Now, there's a problem getting barges to go from Minnesota south because the water is too high. They can't even get the barges to lock and dams in cases. And the loading force for the grain elevators is underwater. So the same issue of shipping is just caused by too much water versus not enough.

[Yeager] The inverse, the 180 flip.

[Thalmann] That's right.

[Yeager] Do you remember at any time, flipping this quickly.

[Thalmann] I really don't. You know, in the past we had some wet years. And again, back to 93. There was a problem with, you know, being too wet. Prior to that, we've had ‘88 was the bigger drought. And then slowly got a little bit wetter. And then we had the ‘93 wet year. And after that things kind of stabilized for a while. So we'll see what happens now or two if we get a little more mellow weather come in, or if we flip right back or something on the dry side, time will tell.

[Yeager] wouldn't that be an insult to injury to one to the other? Back to the other one that, hurts your neck from all the whiplash. We always talk about that old joke. I don't know if it's. Maybe it's an ad. It's not a joke. knee high by the 4th of July. Is that corn behind you going to make that?

[Thalmann] Not here. really varied in the area. You know, there's some of these fields barely knee high, and there's others that are approaching shoulder high. that earlier planting in April, if you had the right fertilizer combination, was able to take advantage of the weather that we had. So that's somewhat comforting. Comforting to know we had enough heat, you know, to get that crop going. And the rest of this is just now being stunted because of continual wet roots ever since it was planted. But, it's just hard to know. The new forecast, I know for our part of the state is still below normal temps the next ten days, so we've got to get a warmer above normal forecast real soon.

[Yeager] You need those heat units, is what you're saying.

[Thalmann] We do. Yeah. The average high is 83 to 85-87 degrees this month. And we have highs in the upper 60s to 70. That's kind of.

[Yeager] I think you told me earlier or in actually in the field behind you kind of a little bit it's inconsistent. What kind of challenges that pose.

[Thalmann] Assuming that it all produces, you know, some corn areas where the crop is more advanced, it's going to mature sooner and that's going to be drier. Corn trouble areas like we're standing by hopefully will have crops along, but those calves are probably going to be wetter. So you try to dry that corn in the fall, you're going to have a wide range of moisture. It makes it more difficult to handle and you don't want to over dry some, but you have to make sure you get the weather for and dry down enough to be able to store it too. So consistency is always easier to work with and an inconsistent crop.

[Yeager] And that also poses, I think, some problems for any nitrogen if you've got those yellow spots. Or maybe I think you said your area is more of a fall application.

[Thalmann] Generally fall application for at least, you know, half or three fourths of the nitrogen. And then the rest comes on in spring. But yes. Again, the varied height of the crop, one neighbor said that they're winning to have the smaller plants be a little bit larger so they can stand the equipment going through to put on that extra nitrogen, but the rest of it is getting a little bit too big. So how do you where do you start? Where do you stop in the same field becomes a challenge?

[Yeager] I think, from the time we've talked today, you were going to maybe do some spraying. Did you get a little better sense of how things look?

[Thalmann] Yeah, I was spraying soybeans and they were planted three weeks ago today. And actually, you know, they're four inches high ready. So they're moving along, at some dry conditions the last three days. And, and that's helping to dry the soil surface out. So a couple more days, things look cool, are better, but there's a good chance of storms again tonight. So they had to do something this afternoon.

[Yeager] You've had a couple of decades of farming behind you, Brian. So you know what I'm about to ask. Might shouldn't be anything new to you, but how many times have you seen it where you have maybe been opposite of what the national narrative is about your crop? Maybe you're too dry when everybody else is getting rain, or vice versa. How do you maintain your level headedness or maybe even laugh about it?

[Thalmann] That happens quite often. We just refer to 2012, and there was a year that was a benefit to be where we were because we didn't suffer, you know, the drought like part of the country did. Now this year it's, you know, it's the opposite. But, we've got a national corn production area and there's a benefit to having the geography that we are because the ethanol industry, the feed industry, livestock industry, they rely on a steady supply of grain. It doesn't have to come right from the facilities backyard. So you're like, this Ingredion is going to have to probably move from the areas of haves and areas that have nots in order to keep the end user happy and supplied, and that's what we need to be able to continue to, to build on those markets. You know, if we'd have a case where you'd have no crop one year, one craft the next to be pretty hard for the end users to build up that robust demand that we have created in this country. So we may not be able to provide as much from our area. But but somebody else, somebody else will.

[Yeager] Well, like politics, all bases is local. What's your basis telling you right now?

[Thalmann] Right now it's not really concerned that there's a shortage of corn. And obviously the the cash market now is reflecting the crop that's in the bean. But I would anticipate come this fall if conditions don't greatly improve, the business is going to reflect a shorter crop in this area depending on what the national crop looks like. That'll kind of affect the futures price. The basis will reflect the local production that we have here.

[Yeager] You also have some interest in a local ethanol plant where that's also affecting prices at the market. But what's the ethanol outlook right now from your location?

[Thalmann] It's very steady. Concern is what's happens with, you know, the continued discussion move to more electric vehicles. That seems to be really slowing in that increased usage. So as long as we have a good supply of internal combustion engines around, the ethanol demand is going to stay steady. Our industry is continuing to move towards a 15% land relative to 88, and that's going to provide some additional certainty for the current ethanol production facilities, along with the new products being looked at, sustainable aviation fuel. And there's some other unique products that are being looked at that utilize ethanol or products from corn to replace other products currently being made from petrochemicals. So, we're pretty confident that industry will continue to move forward. It is just what speed will we be able to increase usage of corn. And that's one of the biggest goals we have. The National corn growers is to build build market for grain. I know we talked earlier and some of these foreign markets is becoming harder and harder for this country, it seems in recent years to export grain. So the build up of local demand in our country is, is, is huge.

[Yeager] Find those various uses, find those new products, the the opportunities. I'm guessing the research train is, is, is chugging along pretty hard right now.

[Thalmann] It is. And you know a lot of new products to take time, but there's just a lot of innovative ideas out there and ways to to make products all from this renewable corn or from soybeans or whatever the crop may be. And, the future looks bright as long as we can keep providing some, some dollars, you know, the state and federal level researching these products and get them tested and approved and get them to market in a cost effective manner. I think we'll be in good shape.

[Yeager] And get timely rains and get the proper amount of, heat units.

[Thalmann] Yes, I can give you a whole long list, but we'll try to keep it short.

[Yeager] as you close up here, Brian, the. It's hard to say. I mean, if you have perfect conditions the rest of the year, you can get back to even average or trend line, but it's going to take a lot of a lot of things to fall in your way. I'm guessing in your area to consider this year. I don't know if it's, quote, good year or how would you what's it look like right now to you? Yeah.

[Thalmann] You know, to have a trendline yield, we have to have a good yield on our entire farm. And we've lost 10 to 15% of the acres ready. So the remaining acres would have to be above trend line to average. The trend line. So that's not going to happen. We're going to be down easily 10 to 15% just due to the drawn out areas and to feel like I'm standing by, which is pretty common in the area, is going to further pull that number down. So I would I'd be surprised if we could see something anywhere close to trendline yields this year with the weather patterns, the way they've been.

[Yeager] And you just hope, that's only a one year thing, not multiple. That's where, you know, the three, 4 or 5 gets to be a little more problematic.

[Thalmann] And that's right. And again, I you know, for all the listener, I'm just talking about our area. I mean, the whole Midwest, we could still produce close to a trendline yield if weather conditions are favorable across the whole area. But I think the southern part of Minnesota in particular, is going to be a big stretch to get some respectable yields.

[Yeager] And you've become a fast moving, rising, level of corn production. I mean, as that belt kind of moves a little further north, you start getting to be in those, the nation counts on your yield.

[Thalmann] Right. And Minnesota is a big state south to north. And you could kind of draw a line across the center of our state in the northern half, you know, the talk of land, the 10,000 lakes, that's kind of the north half of the state, and the southern half would probably be more reflective of an Iowa climate than the trees. And for lakes and forests, beautiful country.

[Yeager] regardless, I love your part of the state. always fun to drive through southwest Minnesota. Brian.

[Thalmann] Thank you.

[Yeager] All right, Brian, I'll let you get back to it. Thank you so very much for your time. I greatly, greatly appreciate it.

[Thalmann] You're good. Thank you.

[Yeager] My thanks to Brian for his time and good luck the rest of the way in this growing season. Let's hope for ideal conditions for him and his neighbors. This podcast is a production of Iowa PBS. Production supervisor is Chad Aubrey. His staff of Shawn Ingrassia, Kevin Rivers, Neal Kyer, Julie Knutson, and David Feingold handle a lot of the mixing, editing, and other technical support. My boss is David Miller, the executive producer of Market to Market new episodes each and every Tuesday, released wherever you get your podcasts. So if it's audio or video here on YouTube, we'll see you next time. Thank you. Bye bye.