Reporters’ Roundtable

(music)

Early voting begins Wednesday in Iowa. We've gathered a few of our favorite political reporters to discuss what the candidates and campaigns are doing and how election officials are preparing on this edition of Iowa Press.

(music)

Funding for Iowa Press was provided by Friends, the Iowa PBS Foundation.

(music)

The Associated General Contractors of Iowa, the public's partner in building Iowa's highway, bridge and municipal utility infrastructure.

Elite Casino Resorts is rooted in Iowa. Elite's 1,600 employees are our company's greatest asset. A family run business, Elite supports volunteerism, encourages promotions from within and shares profits with our employees.

(music)

Across Iowa, hundreds of neighborhood banks strive to serve their communities, provide jobs and help local businesses. Iowa banks are proud to back the life you build. Learn more at iowabankers.com.

(music)

For decades, Iowa Press has brought you political leaders and newsmakers from across Iowa and beyond. Celebrating more than 50 years on statewide Iowa PBS, this is the Friday, October 11th edition of Iowa Press. Here is Kay Henderson.

(music)

[Henderson] Okay, if you watch this show often, you probably know that November 5th is Election Day. It's coming up soon. And the people that we have assembled around this table have it marked on their calendar and they are counting down the days along with the candidates that you're seeing, or going to be seeing, on the ballots you're going to cast in the coming weeks. Our guests today are political reporters from Iowa political institutions. Stephen Gruber-Miller is the Statehouse and Political Reporter for the Des Moines Register. Brianne Pfannenstiel is the Chief Politics Reporter for the Des Moines Register. And Erin Murphy is the Bureau Chief here in Des Moines for the Cedar Rapids Gazette. Welcome back to the show all of you. Something that has happened that I think we need to start talking about first is the Cook Political Report. It's kind of a non-partisan group that rates congressional races around the country. It has now rated Iowa's first and third congressional districts as toss ups. So, let's start with the first, Erin. This is a rematch, right?

[Murphy] Yeah, it's Mariannette Miller-Meeks as the republican incumbent and she is once again facing democrat Christina Bohannan. Two years ago, Mariannette Miller-Meeks won that race by about seven points, 52-45 or 46ish. And this was a district that four years ago Mariannette Miller-Meeks got into Congress by winning by just six votes. Now, that was a little different makeup, that was before redistricting kind of changed the look of the district. But it was a close-ish race and we started this cycle thinking and the forecasters that you mentioned had this as close but leaning republican. And now as you mentioned, as time has gone on, we see things like fundraising and polling, now they believe this is a pure toss up election, very close. And we're seeing that the candidates seem to believe that too. We're seeing a lot of activity lately from both Christina Bohannan and Miller-Meeks being out and doing campaign events, doing public events, doing fundraisers. So, it seems to be a legit competitive race.

[Henderson] Speaking of polling, Brianne, your newspaper did some polling in each of Iowa's four congressional districts. What did we learn?

[Pfannenstiel] So, what we do on the Iowa Poll is called a generic congressional ballot. So, we don't have the names of the candidates on there. It's a, would you vote for the republican or the democrat in your vote for Congress this year? And so, what the results of that showed were that 52% of likely voters said that they would vote for the republican and 44% said they would vote for the democrat.

[Henderson] In the first.

[Pfannenstiel] Overall in statewide. And what that tells, that kind of matches what we see. We've got four republicans in the four congressional districts. But what we do after that is we break it down and we look at where people are responding from. And in the first district, it was the only district that we polled that showed that Iowans actually preferred the democrat there. It showed that 49% favored the democrat, 46% favored the republican. And so that is really interesting because obviously the Cook Political Report just moved this into the toss up category. But I think it's really interesting to look at these. The margin of error is higher for some of these congressional polls. So, we look to them to be kind of a general test of how voters are feeling. What is the mood of the voters right now? And if you look back when Abby Finkenauer lost her first district spot, this poll pointed out some warning signs for her at exactly this point in the election cycle.

[Henderson] You were going to add, Stephen?

[Gruber-Miller] Yeah, and I was just going to say, Christina Bohannan is a second time candidate now. She has done this before. She is receiving more support this cycle from the national party than she did in 2022. She got started earlier. She knows kind of some of the weaknesses she wanted to iron out from her campaign from last time. And Mariannette Miller-Meeks is in an interesting position where there are conservatives in her district who are upset with her. They are upset with some votes she had taken. They're upset that she hasn't more closely aligned herself with Trump. And we saw her defeat a primary challenger earlier this year by about 12 percentage points. So, almost 45% of the vote for her primary challenger shows there's some discontent there.

[Henderson] Erin, do you see other elements of this race that are different?

[Murphy] No, I think the other big thing is -- and this will seep into a lot of the conversation we're going to have here today -- which is just the issues that are driving this campaign. And obviously abortion being top of those. And republicans talk about them and voters say they want to hear about immigration as well. But I think the abortion issue this time is different than it was two years ago. We're now post some big court decisions, including here in Iowa, that has changed the legal landscape and I think there's more juice behind that for the democratic candidates to talk about that issue and it's more tangible now is probably the better word I should have used there. And so, I think there's some issues that are a little different and maybe help the democratic candidate a little more this time around than two years ago.

[Henderson] Brianne, at the national scale and if could offer some advice to our viewers, look at the battleground state polls to sort of gauge how this presidential race is going to go because you have to win the Electoral College. I may say that again. But national polls in general on the presidential race show us some interesting dynamics among voter groups. And that may be playing out in this race as well.

[Pfannenstiel] Absolutely. One of the biggest dynamics that I think we're seeing across polling, across states in national polling and in our Iowa Polls here as well is a really pronounced gender divide, especially in the presidential race where Donald Trump is really driving turnout among men of most demographic groups, whereas Kamala Harris and the democrats are driving turnout among women. We see that play out in the Iowa Poll. Our poll showed that Trump leads among men 59% to 32%. It's almost the inverse for women with Kamala Harris. She leads 53% to 36%. So, we see that kind of trickle through all of these races in the way that we talk about how the top of the ballot affects down ballot. And so, I think that is something we could be seeing in the first as well as the third.

[Murphy] Yeah, and to that, and I probably should have said this the first time you asked me the question, Kay, because another difference between two years ago and now is that presidential ticket. And now on the democratic side we've seen a boost in enthusiasm with the change in the presidential candidate from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris. And, in an election where turnout is critical, if you've got suddenly a boost in enthusiasm among your party's voters, which we are hearing anecdotal evidence of, and we are seeing in the polls as well, including the Iowa Poll, that can make a difference in a district that was already competitive. If all of a sudden there is a number of new democratic voters that didn't come out two years ago that will this year, that's another issue that could help Christina Bohannan this time around as well.

[Henderson] Let's shift to the third congressional district. Stephen, you and I covered a debate on KCCI television this past week that will be the only debate between the two major party candidates in this race.

[Gruber-Miller] Yeah, that's right. So, the candidates in this race are the incumbent U.S. Representative Zach Nunn, he is a republican. He is seeking his second term this year after winning by less than a percentage point in 2022. And he's facing a challenge from Lanon Baccam, the democrat and a former U.S. Department of Agriculture official. So, they squared off for an hour on the debate stage. Again, abortion was an issue that we heard a lot about. And that was sort of one of the touchier issues of the night where they kind of got into it a little bit more. Lanon Baccam was trying to tie Zach Nunn to the six-week abortion ban that is here in the state that has taken effect in Iowa. Zach Nunn voted for a previous version of it when he was serving in the legislature. And Baccam also brought back a moment from a 2022 republican primary debate where Zach Nunn raises his hand when he was asked if all abortions should be illegal. Now, he has since walked back that position. He said he does not support a federal abortion ban. But it is clearly an issue that the democrats are trying to bring up in the race.

[Henderson] The other interesting thing in that exchange was when he was talking about the exceptions that he supports. He said he supports an exception for rape, for incest and for health of the mother, not life of the mother, which is different than some people frame this issue. I found that really interesting in terms of what Nunn was saying during that debate.

[Gruber-Miller] Yeah, he has really tried to emphasize those exceptions because polling shows that they are popular. People, even if they support restrictions on abortion, a lot of the time they support those exceptions. And the other thing that Zach Nunn was bringing up was legislation he has introduced to try to have insurance cover infertility treatment like IVF. He talked about over-the-counter birth control. So, he's trying to sort of push back and say that he has been active on this topic.

[Murphy] The challenge to that for Zach Nunn is the Iowa law is not health of the mother, and that is what is on the books now. It's life of the mother. And we've heard doctors, including on this program, talk about what a challenge it is to implement and operate under that exception.

[Henderson] Brianne, let's roll the tape back a little bit. Zach Nunn is in Congress because he defeated an incumbent two years ago.

[Pfannenstiel] That's right. Zach Nunn ran against then incumbent democrat Cindy Axne. As Stephen mentioned, he won by less than a percentage point, which immediately puts this race in kind of the top tier of competitive races, not just in Iowa but across the country for democrats. And if you remember that race two years ago, national democrats really stayed out of it. They were kind of looking at their bigger map and picking other states where they thought they could be more effective in putting their money, putting their advertising. And that is not the case this cycle. We saw them recruit Lanon Baccam into the race. We're seeing them really go in very aggressively in terms of advertising, in terms of money. And so, we'll see whether that firmer hand on the race plays out for them.

[Henderson] The presidential impact here could be interesting.

[Gruber-Miller] Yeah. I was going to say another little wrinkle that could affect both the first and the third is that there are no third-party candidates on the ballot in those races, particularly in the third district. The margin of victory for Nunn with no third-party candidate on the ballot in 2022 was very small. But in her prior races, Cindy Axne had won that district by just under the margin that the third-party candidate received in that year. And this year we saw republican voters, activists, county party chairs, go to great lengths to get the libertarian candidates removed from the Iowa ballot.

[Henderson] Erin, if people aren't up to speed, that was something that happened over a month ago.

[Murphy] Yeah, there was a challenge to the method in which the Libertarian Party of Iowa nominated their three candidates for three congressional races including the third district. And basically, what it boiled down to is there are certain requirements in state law that they didn't quite meet and in some cases literally by a matter of hours. But it did not meet the state law. And that went all the way to the state Supreme Court and the state Supreme Court upheld the challenge, which to be clear, was ruled all along the way. The State Objection Panel ruled that way. The District Court did put a pause on it. But then the Supreme Court agreed with the state panel.

[Henderson] The only statewide race in Iowa this year is the presidential race. And so, let's spend a little bit of time talking about it. And harkening back to the Iowa Poll that was conducted in June when it was a top of ticket race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Biden trailed by 18 points. Fast forward to a different race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. She has very much narrowed that gap. So, my question is, is this a race about personality? Or is this a race about issues, Brianne?

[Pfannenstiel] Well, you look at the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and now Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and the issue set is very much the same. They're talking about the same types of issues. And yet you've seen that race narrow very dramatically in the course of that time. So, personality, yes, plays a part. But I think we're also looking at the fact that voters just uniquely were tired of Joe Biden. Kamala Harris is much younger, she is a woman, she is a black woman. She has energized the base in a way that Joe Biden simply did not. And so, in that way I think it's very much what the media has kind of termed a vibes election. People like Kamala Harris a lot more than they liked Joe Biden as the foil to Donald Trump.

[Gruber-Miller] And we see some more evidence in that poll that kind of reinforces this. Donald Trump's percentage vote share from June to the more recent poll did not change that much. It was roughly the same, 47 or so percent. But Biden had 32% and then Harris jumps up to 43, right? So, it shows a consolidation. That 43, 44% is a lot closer to what the actual margin was in the 2020 presidential election. So, perhaps just consolidating and activating and enthusing the democrats who are in the state.

[Pfannenstiel] But in the sense that it is still related to issues, we've talked a lot about abortion. Democrats perhaps see Kamala Harris as a much better messenger on that issue. She is able to talk about it in a way that Joe Biden, an older male Catholic, was unable to. And so, to the degree that that issue is shaping this race, I think Kamala Harris is a better messenger for democrats and, again, in contrast to Donald Trump.

[Gruber-Miller] And perhaps better to grab the mantle of the change candidate, the person who is going to break us out from the status quo and move us forward, although Trump will argue he has a claim to that as well.

[Murphy] And also the youth vote, I'm going to be really interested to see what happens with turnout among young voters. There seems to have been an energization there as well in Kamala Harris' candidacy among a voting block that notoriously doesn't turn out well for elections. I'm fascinated to see what those numbers look like.

[Henderson] I'm going to talk about your bio briefly, Erin. You grew up in Wisconsin. You worked for the Dubuque Telegraph Herald in the distant past. Bernie Sanders, who you may all remember, has run statewide in this state twice, is campaigning on Friday night, tonight, in Dubuque, Iowa. What's going on?

[Murphy] Well, I would say maybe he's visiting the Mississippi River Museum, which is a wonderful place, I recommend it to anyone. But, so it is fascinating though. So, the event is being billed as a show of support for labor and we've had some things happening obviously in that sphere. We've had strikes and in Iowa there's been layoffs among John Deere workers. And so, it is billed as that kind of event and it's not tied to, at least officially according to the press releases that way see, in any way to the Kamala Harris campaign or the national Democratic Party. It's a Bernie Sanders gig through and through. But it is fascinating for him to be in Wisconsin, which he's also appearing there in Wisconsin, which is a toss-up state and obviously Dubuque, which shares the river with Wisconsin. So, it's interesting timing and optics and maybe it's one of those situations where there is a pure intent here. But if it also helps excite democratic voters in a toss-up state like Wisconsin, well maybe that's just a pleasant bonus.

[Henderson] Stephen, let's shift to control of the Iowa legislature, candidates for the Iowa House and Senate. What are the prospects?

[Gruber-Miller] Yeah, so republicans have strong majorities in both the House and the Senate. Republicans have 64 seats to democrats 36 in the House. Let me not get this backwards, 34 seats to democrats 16 in the Senate. And so, I think democrats are hopeful this year that they can cut into those majorities, but I don't think anybody expects democrats to come back into the majority in either chamber. And, in fact, while they might gain a few seats in the House, I think there is a possibility that republicans could pick up even more seats in the Senate just because of the way the map looks. But a lot of the sort of battles will be focused on the Des Moines Metro, some other metros around the state. You've got a competitive House race in Council Bluffs, perhaps in Marshalltown, perhaps in the Waterloo/Cedar Falls area for the Senate. So, democrats will essentially be making the argument that republicans have gone too far on issues like abortion, which we've talked about, but also on education where Governor Reynolds has passed a school choice program and overhauled the AEAs and they'll be hoping that that resonates. And republicans will be saying, we've done what you asked, we cut your taxes, we've led on all of these issues and making that case.

[Henderson] We have another thing to talk about on the election front. But let's talk for just a little bit about something that has happened since our last roundtable in that Adam Gregg, Brianne, is no longer Iowa's Lieutenant Governor and Governor Reynolds has not picked a replacement yet.

[Pfannenstiel] Right, it came as kind of a surprise to a lot of the political world. I know I was out on a different assignment and I think probably all of us started hearing just a little bit of political chatter for just a couple of minutes, honestly, before the news was official that Adam Gregg had resigned. He's going to be taking over a position leading the Iowa Bankers Association. And that was back in early September. And Governor Reynolds has the power to appoint his successor to fill out the remainder of his term. She has not done that yet. She has said that she'll do that after the election. And until she does, Senate President Amy Sinclair is next in the line of succession. But this was really kind of a surprise. It came very quickly. I don't think anybody was anticipating that Lieutenant Governor Gregg, former Lieutenant Governor Gregg, would be leaving, particularly before an election or before Governor Reynolds announced what she plans to do in 2026 in terms of re-election.

[Henderson] And Stephen, you and I covered the Governor's annual fall fundraiser this past weekend and there was no mention of this whatsoever from the stage.

[Gruber-Miller] Not a peep. Nope. It was all about other issues here, which I think maybe speaks to the fact that the Governor has really had the spotlight for much of her tenure in office and Adam Gregg really has not. And perhaps if you are looking for some tea leaves about what her decision will be for 2026, whether she intends to run again, Adam Gregg leaving might be an indicator that he didn't really see a path for him to run for Governor himself. At least that is what some people are thinking.

[Henderson] Well, let's go back to the election that is going to come up sooner than later. One of the things that struck me a couple of weeks ago when we had two top election officials on this program, Secretary of State Paul Pate and Becky Bissell, the Adams County Auditor who is head of all of the county auditors, she is president of their association right now, was that basically Becky Bissell said, don't mail back the absentee ballot that you asked for through the mail.

[Murphy] Yeah, Paul Pate basically said, if you're going to do it have a plan. Becky Bissell basically said, don't do that. If you want to vote early, come to the auditor's office and vote in person. She's -- and I'm exaggerating maybe a little bit here -- but the tone of her message was very, I'm talking to my voters and she is in Adams County, which is a very rural area, and giving very stern warnings that the clock may run out on you and if your ballot comes in late there's, under the new state law, there's nothing that can be done. It doesn't matter when it's postmarked. If it's late, it's late.

[Henderson] Speaking of the state law, it has changed.

[Gruber-Miller] There are some significant changes. The first one is what Erin was just mentioning. Your ballot will no longer count if it arrives after Election Day, even if it was postmarked before Election Day. It has to be in the auditor's hands by close of polls on Election Day. Secondly, four years ago Iowa had 29 days of early voting, now there's only 20 days. And so, if there are delays in the mail, if it takes a week to mail something, maybe it takes a week to mail your ballot to you, you have a little think about who you're going to vote for, then it takes a week to mail back, suddenly you're really tight on timing and something going wrong could affect that. If somebody votes by mail, if they requested an absentee ballot, they can always go in in person to the auditor's office and tell them hey, I requested an absentee ballot but I'd like to vote in person, they'll cancel that other ballot. I think they want you to bring that ballot in with you if you can. But there are ways to still vote and make sure it's counted. But people voting by mail should be really careful.

[Henderson] Brianne, 2020 was an extraordinary year in terms of turnout, partly because a vast majority of votes were cast by mail-in because we were in the midst of a pandemic. Any idea what may happen in a presidential year in 2024?

[Pfannenstiel] Well, I'm not in the business of making predictions at all when it comes to presidential elections. But if you're looking at, again, enthusiasm levels and what these candidates have done in the past, Donald Trump has a long history of driving turnout in this state among republicans and among his base. And now if you look at Kamala Harris, all of the things we've been talking about, the optimism level, the excitement level among democrats who are eager to get out and support her, could push that as well. And yet, we'll see whether she's able to meet kind of that mark that Joe Biden left in 2020.

[Murphy] And Paul Pate has said that as well on this program. He said in his experience it's the candidates that drive election interest and turnout, not necessarily the laws. Now, this is a little unique, as you mentioned those 2020 early voting rules were blown wide open, there was nearly a million early votes cast in that election. Hard to believe that we'll see that many this time around and we'll see what that means for the overall turnout picture.

[Henderson] Stephen, about half a minute left. How long will we be waiting for election results on Election Night? The polls in Iowa are going to close at 8pm.

[Gruber-Miller] Yeah, we should probably know most of Iowa's results on Election Night more or less. I think in 2020 we probably knew most of the races by midnight. There was a congressional race where the candidate didn't concede until the following day. And of course, there were maybe some recounts, Mariannette Miller-Meeks' race in 2020 which was decide by six votes, but barring those very, very close races, we'll have most of our results on the night. Other states might take days or weeks to count their results.

[Henderson] Well, I can't count any more minutes left in our conversation. Thanks to the three of you for being here and sharing your reporting. Just a message for our viewers, Iowa PBS will be hosting congressional debates the next two Mondays. First, this Monday, October 14th will be the 2nd Congressional District Debate between Sarah Corkery and Ashley Hinson. Then Monday, October 21st, Christina Bohannan and Mariannette Miller-Meeks will participate in a 1st Congressional District Debate. Watch both debates live at 8pm on air or online. We hope you'll tune in. For everyone here at Iowa PBS, thanks for watching this edition of Iowa Press. And you can watch every episode at iowapbs.org.

(music)

(music)

Funding for Iowa Press was provided by Friends, the Iowa PBS Foundation.

(music)

The Associated General Contractors of Iowa, the public's partner in building Iowa's highway, bridge and municipal utility infrastructure.

Elite Casino Resorts a family run business rooted in Iowa. We believe our employees are part of our family and we strive to improve their quality of life and the quality of lives within the communities we serve.

(music)

Across Iowa, hundreds of neighborhood banks strive to serve their communities, provide jobs and help local businesses. Iowa banks are proud to back the life you build. Learn more at iowabankers.com.

(music)