Market to Market - September 20, 2024

Paul Yeager: Coming up on Market to Market. Assessing the risks of a possible spread of avian flu to humans. Solving the problem of safety when entering the bin. And commodity market analysis with Don Roose, next.

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This is the Friday, September 20th edition of Market to Market, the Weekly journal of Rural America.

Hello. I’m Paul Yeager. 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said this week he was trying to recession-proof the economy - even as the labor market remains strong. 

For the first time in four years, the Federal Reserve lowered the key interest rate - the move Wednesday was by 50 basis points.

Consumers are still spending their earnings as retail sales figures added 0.1 percent. Online retailers, sporting good stores and garden stores reported higher sales. When autos are stripped out, the rate moved higher by the same amount. 

Buying a home remains difficult due to higher interest rates.  Existing home sales fell 2.5 percent in August and 4.2 percent when compared to a year ago. The lower interest rate coupled with increasing inventory is making for some optimism in that sector.

The Rural Mainstreet Index hit its 13th consecutive month below growth neutral. Bank CEOs in rural areas say weak agricultural commodity prices and sinking equipment sales are leading the downward trend across the 10-state region surveyed.

Much of that survey area has been impacted by bird flu both in poultry and dairy cows.

Research on a vaccine is in the works and USDA recently approved a field trial for cattle. As livestock owners keep an eye out for the spread of the disease, so do scientists watching for the leap to humans. 

 Peter Tubbs reports. 

The ongoing spread of bird flu across the nations poultry and dairy herds poses a concern beyond those species.

The jump from birds to dairy cattle shows the virus can mutate in ways that increases its spread to new species.

Dr. Gerald Parker, Texas A&M: “Thirty to 50 mammalian species have been infected now with this bird flu, when historically it has been primarily only in birds. And then what really elevated its concern in the last six months is it was detected in dairy cattle in the Panhandle of Texas.”

Peter Tubbs: Bird flu has been detected in dairy cattle in 14 states, affecting over 200 herds. There have been 15 confirmed cases in humans. All but one of the human cases had direct contact with infected dairy herds.

The crossing of H5N1 to mammals is concerning to virologists, as the potential for the virus becoming endemic in both poultry and dairy has increased. A stable version of the virus could pass back to wild birds, increasing the spread to unaffected animals.    

Dr. Gerald Parker, Texas A&M: “ In this current situation with H5N1, bird flu, that’s now in dairy cattle, we have to make sure that our public health authorities, our animal health authorities and our industry, dairy industry, are working very close together at all levels, from the national, state, local level, and we have to work with our international partners, too.”

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs

Paul Yeager: Saturday marks the end of National Farm Safety and Health week. 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 417 fatalities in the agricultural sector in 2022 keeping the industry at the top of the most dangerous work environments. 

Equipment usage, transport and confined spaces all create safety challenges. Since 2007, there have been 504 entrapments in grain bins according to an insurance industry report.  But not everyone has to enter the bin and a new invention aimed at reducing that risk is geared towards saving lives.

Josh Buettner has our Cover Story.

Tony Bestwick/Chief, Fire Department – City of York, Nebraska: “Bin rescue is very dangerous.  Low frequency/high risk is what we call it.” 

Tony Bestwick/Chief, Fire Department – City of York, Nebraska: “You can’t just have them come in through the door, because what does that do?  The grain comes down on them, right?  So, if you’ve got a bad situation, and then you just make it worse with this cascading grain.”  

Josh Buettner: York, Nebraska Fire Chief Tony Bestwick’s crew have struggled with rescuing farm workers trapped in grain bins.  

Tony Bestwick/Chief, Fire Department – City of York, Nebraska: “It’s a very stressful situation.”

Buettner: Bestwick cautions that time is key.  Experts say an adult can be submerged in a bin filled with corn or soybeans in as little as 20 seconds – a tragedy all too common in rural America.

Zach Hunnicutt/Giltner, Nebraska: “Someone in their family, or a neighbor, or somebody they know… I think just about every farmer that is around grain bins has a story of someone they know that has lost their life in a grain bin.”  

Buettner: Safety is top of mind for fifth generation Nebraska row crop producer Zach Hunnicutt.  Just a child when his grandfather’s brother died in a grain bin accident, today he follows proper, established protocols to move harvested raw commodities out of storage for buyers.  But risky situations can persist, and one trip to town saw Hunnicutt instigate a homegrown tech start-up whose mission became “no boots in the grain”.

Ben Johnson/Chief Innovation Officer & CO-Founder – Grain Weevil Corporation: “We were building a robot and we were showing that to people at church and showed that to a family friend of ours, who farms, and he said: If you can build that robot, you should build me a robot to keep me and my kids out of the grain bin.”

Buettner: Ben Johnson and his father Chad had never set foot in a grain bin before they invented the Grain Weevil, an autonomous robot that cruises through grain loads on a pair of mini-augers, busting up clumps and surface crusting – to maintain profitable product.  They say their machine also minimizes lung complications and combustion issues associated with concentrated grain dust.

Chad Johnson/Chief Executive Officer & CO-Founder – Grain Weevil Corporation: “I like to tell people, it’s like…every dad’s dream to build robots with their kid – and people look at me kind of funny.  I say ok, every nerd dad’s dream.”

Buettner: With a love of robotics fostered by his educator father, Ben earned a degree in electrical engineering from the University of Nebraska – Omaha.  Their business went from father and son building prototypes at home in small town Aurora, to a shop in the state’s largest metro area, over 10 employees, two issued patents - and several more in the works.  

Private capital and federal grant money are helping Grain Weevil iron out technical hurdles and finalize their manufacturing process – which they claim will unleash a monetized ecosystem of insurance, finance, farmers and ancillary businesses.  They’ve targeted the second quarter of 2025 for a full product rollout.

Ben Johnson/Chief Innovation Officer & CO-Founder – Grain Weevil Corporation: “It started in the shed just putting it together with whatever we had.  Now you can see we’ve really grown the team and been able to engineer this thing to be powerful and capable inside the bin.” 

Buettner: Grain Weevil assures just one of their robots alone can manage up to 250,000 bushels.  This fall, they will unveil BinAssist, with partners across the Midwest, trained to run a fleet of 30 robots and provide specialized services to local areas.

Chad Johnson/CEO & CO-Founder – Grain Weevil Corporation: “Take one bushel of grain, and follow that along the supply chain.  We can actually capitalize on that one bushel of grain on the farm, at the co-ops, in the transportation, at the food processing facilities – all have use cases for the robot.”

Buettner: For Hunnicutt, whose grain bins were proving ground for the Grain Weevil, it’s an idea that’s come home to roost.

Zach Hunnicutt/Giltner, Nebraska: “It’s just been cool to see that evolution.  We’ve created a lot of technological solutions, in other places on the farm, to protect us from unnecessary risks and this is one of the final frontiers.”  

Dr. Aaron Yoder/Associate Professor – University of Nebraska Medical Center: “We try to find the most current research on keeping the grain in good quality at conferences like this. Whether it’s through - just management techniques, or we can remove the human from hazardous situations…using a robot to do that would be a great example.”

Buettner: University of Nebraska Medical Center Associate Professor Dr. Aaron Yoder performs grain bin safety outreach on behalf of his institution’s Central States Center for Agricultural Safety and Health.  

Dr. Aaron Yoder/Associate Professor – University of Nebraska Medical Center: “Often times people will go inside the bin to either check the quality of the grain, or to do something if it goes out of condition.  It gets lumpy.  It gets moldy.  They’ll go in to try to break up some of those blockages that might prevent the grain from flowing.  When I see things like that, I get tremendously sad, because we know it could be preventable.”

Buettner: Grain Weevil sought Yoder’s expertise on safety compliance – along with Nationwide Insurance, the country’s largest agricultural insurer.  

Nationwide conducts an annual Grain Bin Safety Week and has donated manufactured “rescue tubes” to various rural fire departments, including York, Nebraska.  

First responders are grateful for specialized additions to their toolbox, but as grim headlines of grain bin catastrophes continue to trickle out of Husker country, the sense of urgency is palpable.

Chad Johnson/CEO & CO-Founder – Grain Weevil Corporation: “We gotta hurry.  We gotta do this as fast as we possibly can…but we can’t.  We have to do it right. It takes a lot to develop a machine this complicated.  It really does motivate us though.  It keeps us pushing.  It keeps us moving forward.  We know, every two weeks that we don’t get one done, somebody’s losing a father or a son or a mother that’s in there helping.  It’s tough.”

For Market to Market, I’m Josh Buettner.

Paul Yeager: Range-bound trade continued as early harvest returns added little doubt to the predicted bounty ahead.  For the week …

The nearby wheat contract lost 26 cents and the December corn contract shed 12 cents. China again returned as buyers as export sales helped the soybean complex. The November soybean contract added six cents while October meal weakened a dollar per ton. December cotton expanded $3.74 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class Three milk futures sold off nine cents. The livestock market was higher. October cattle expanded $4.83. October feeders put on $4.77 and the October lean hog contract improved by $3.78. In the currency markets, the US dollar index fell 28 ticks. October crude oil found $3.20 per barrel. COMEX gold added $32.10 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index increased 10 points to settle at 532 - even. Joining us now is one of our regular market analysts Don Roose...

Don Roose: Great to be back, Paul.

Paul Yeager: Thank you. We're not sweating at the Iowa State Fair today. We're in climate control here. Still hot over this time of year. Is this weather having any impact on maybe spring or winter wheat plantings or anything of that nature in this country?

Don Roose: Well, you know, I think he hit two of the issues for the weather standpoint. And I think 80% of the market is weather. But, you know, for the most part we'll see how the yields come out. But the, it's not the finish that you want from a producer standpoint, hot and dry. And then down in the hard red winter wheat area for the wheat plantings. They're in dry dirt. Same thing in the Black Sea on wheat. So you've got two areas we're watching pretty close. and we're watching the weather here, the finish to the crop and also watching the weather in South America.

Paul Yeager: You've got a geopolitical issue, though, because Russia's having a bigger crop. Ukraine is not. Ukraine's in that drought area. What's that going to do to some of the world dynamics? Is that a little more instability coming to wheat?

Don Roose: Well, you know, estimates on the corn, is about maybe Ukraine has a 50% corn crop. And, you know, really our competition on corn exports really comes down to Ukraine and Brazil. But, you know, the wheat in, you know, talk about the wheat. Russia just continues to keep a thumb on the price. They keep selling the wheat market. You know, down, clearing wheat, I guess is to pay for the war. But, you know, that's the real issue with the wheat market.

Paul Yeager: With wheat having this, receding this week, this is an opportunity that you need to take advantage of for some sales.

Don Roose: Well, you know, I think when you look in the big picture things, I think you have to say, you know, at harvest time isn't the best time to be trying to press and sell stocks. seasonally, the wheat market, the old market bottoms the first couple of weeks of September and it looks like, you know, that's what's going on at the present time. So, you know, we had a pullback this week. Let's see if it finds support here. The technicals certainly were weak on Friday across the board.

Paul Yeager: You know we have a question that came in from a viewer. And I'm going to set it up this way. We always talk about government reports USDA reports. But it's really the Fed that had an impact on agriculture and inflation. Here's what, the question is, Jacob in Minnesota wants to know, Don, why haven't commodity prices changed with inflation? It always hits everything else in AG.

Don Roose: Well, you know, the big thing that happened, you know, if you look at the, the whole policy, it was the interest rate when they started raising interest rates in 2022, that's when the dollar, moved higher. That's when our exports, slowed. And that's when the fund sold. The market impressed it. You know, basically, for the last two years, two and a half years. So, you know, I think when you look at it from optimistic standpoint, just reverse it. you know, interest rates are going lower. Funds are gradually getting out of their short position. The dollar's trying to go lower. And so the exports and the demand should pick up. Paul. So the interest rate cycle is changing. And maybe that's a good thing for the grain market buyers.

Paul Yeager: So we had but we had really good S&P the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq all performed well initially in those first 36 hours after the Fed news. What about the outside money then influence it? It sounds like they're not selling off in that sector yet to come in and commodities.

Don Roose: Well you know I think the real problem is the, you know, the confidence when the, last month, the, the budget deficit was 380 billion, you know, so there's just too much government spending so far, Paul. So people are looking at alternatives to, from an inflation standpoint, a dollar standpoint. And so you're right. I mean the Fed cutting, half a percent really kind of stoked the fire again. And so we'll see. But in the futures market, you have another half a percent dialed in. You can trade the futures market on interest rates. another half a percent dialed into the end of the year. And from now until March of full another percent. So, you know, it's a dicey situation going forward.

Paul Yeager: Those are big steps. Let's talk corn, for a minute. combine starting to roll. Harvest pressure is here. The easy question is, are we low? But what does this early returns and harvest mean to the market?

Don Roose: Well, you know, I think the big thing is we had our harvest, probably are ready with old crop stocks moving pretty aggressively. Producer doesn't want to sell corner soybeans at these prices. National average on corn, $3.74 producers interested in selling here at these levels. $9.50 on soybeans. So I think it's just, maybe our seasonal lows are in at these prices fall that December.

Paul Yeager: Corn just hung on to that $4. And it was kind of in that $4 to $4.15 range for really most of the last 2 to 3 weeks on that deferred contract. If we look out on the road here, a little, little better opportunity ahead.

Don Roose: Well, you know, the, you know, we're down to these little numbers in these pennies now in this market on merchandizing. Paul is not the big dollars that we were talking before, but from, December to July, corn, the producers, choices on marketing are probably, trying to get the carry in the market. The basis an improvement. You have a 36 cent carry from December corn to July. seven months out and eight months out of 57 cent carry in soybeans. So I think the producers going to do the best job he can to use as a storage and, try and get a better way to return.

Paul Yeager: You bullish long term corn, though.

Don Roose: You know, I think you have to say what's fair market value on the market. And I think what we've really learned, lately is, you know, it's a typical seasonal market. Put your high in the spring lows in the fall, and it appears at around $4 on corn, give or take, $0.10 or $0.20. Is fair market value in the same on soybeans. So, when you look at the demand side of the market, probably continues to improve, Paul, with all these biofuels. So long term, I think you have to be bullish on agriculture, be bullish on the grains, soybeans.

Paul Yeager: A little bit of help on that demand picture comes from China this week showing back up in the market, and is actually showing up in a couple of other figures. But we're still stuck in a range.

Don Roose: We're stuck in a range because it's harvest time and we haven't really sorted out with the producers going to be aggressive, sell or not. But you know, you're right. The supporting the maker underneath the market China buying. And we're in extreme drought in the northern central and northern Brazil. some of the driest areas in there in 40 years. So it's something that needs to improve. And I think when South America raises twice as many soybeans as we do in the US, the weather is going to be the focal point going forward.

Paul Yeager: I don't mean to be so prickly with you tonight, but it's normally dry this time of year in Brazil. Why is this any different?

Don Roose: Well, you're exactly right. I mean, because usually what you're alluding to is the monsoons usually come at us. The first couple of weeks of October, they wait for the rains, then they start planting. So nothing yet. I think the other thing is maybe that does. Maybe that doesn't happen, but it's also a La Nina year, and the La Nina is gaining strength. And that means you flip around that north goes, normal in southern Brazil and Argentina go into the dry drought pattern. So I think it's the fact that there's a lot of unknowns in the weather.

Paul Yeager: You said he were bullish on agriculture in general. Does soybeans get to be included in your long term view of how you how you see soybeans?

Don Roose: Well, look at the soybean markets, not only us. It's around the world. It's the biodiesel. We've got three new plants coming on in the fourth quarter, crushing soybeans, big demand. there you've got, countries like, Indonesia on their palm oil. They're looking to maybe use 50% of their gasoline, infused with or, diesel with biodiesel. So, you know, I think it's the energy. and that's the big one on corn. Look at corn. 40% of the corn roughly goes into ethanol.

Paul Yeager: Cotton real quick. There was a storm last week. Not this week. Is there something else at play besides weather here in the US in that market?

Don Roose: Well, if you look at the cotton charts, I mean, we've had a big rounded bottom on, on the, since mid-summer on cotton. So much like the grains we hit kind of a fair market by value. Got some buying in because of the rain and the bulls, you know, that were open in some issues. And the question mark, is China going to, pick up the demand as their economy continues to improve?

Paul Yeager: We think live cattle appeared to be through with their paws as they marched higher. Is that going to continue?

Don Roose: Well, the cattle market rally. You're right. The futures rallied $8 to $10. You know, the big issue with the cattle market is the weights. The weights are sitting right at all time records, you know, cheap grain, cheap prices. So I think the bigger weights kind of an anchor here. But the government says 191 for a cash prize for all of next year, if you believe that too low out in the, in the distant months, hunting cattle pull.

Paul Yeager: Cattle on feed came out just before we rolled today. What was in that report?

Don Roose: Well, we went into it a big rally on the cattle like we just talked about, but, the total cattle on feeds slightly higher, slightly higher than the trade thought up. maybe a one half a percent, placements, you know, bigger than they thought in the marketing's a little bit lower. I always say those numbers by on surface are a little bit negative, but a lot of it is probably dialed in. And I think it's just the big pump that we got on the cash at the end of the week here. They gave us the strength.

Paul Yeager: The cash trade, not the cash from the government. Sorry. I just wanna make sure it's like we've been talking a lot of those things. do you, I, I guess I'll stick with the theme of the night optimism for cattle. I mean, we've been a really good levels here for cattle and for feeders. I ask this all the time. This can't keep going, can it?

Don Roose: Well, the numbers aren't there. I mean, the placement numbers are close to a five year low. you know, the government next year has had total production down 4.5%, hogs up 1 to 1.6%. But you know, you're right. The issue with all these meat markets is cheaper grains mean cheaper livestock. Just because, like we said, you put more weights on, you go to work and have imports from Canada, from Mexico. You know, you bring more meat in from Uruguay. So you plug some of these areas, you know, some of our tight numbers with world supplies.

Paul Yeager: Hog market reversed and, and moves higher this week there's been this story of exports. Is that what you think the story is?

Don Roose: Well I think if you look at it I mean China was the one that really started putting some real pressure on our hog market. And, you know what, China's hogs are up over 40% this year, so that's a big plus. It tells us our industry, but the futures market have pushed up here kind of at some tough levels. You know, seasonals are still positive on cattle and hogs. But, you know, I think when you look at the hog market overall, it probably is going to be one that, you know, summer months look like, you know, we've got some decent prices here. The weights are the issue there again, Paul. I mean, the weights account for about another 100,000 head of hogs, a week, you know, 20,000 head on cattle. So it's the weights that are putting more tonnage in this meat market.

Paul Yeager: You've been talking to my doctor again about the weights. when? Let's look at crude for a moment. And the dollar, crude puts on $3 this week. Plus the dollar weakens. There's an election campaign. I mean, we got a lot of stuff on the outside markets influencing the commodities. What's the one thing the producers should be looking at the most right now on some of those outside things?

Don Roose: Well, I think probably the biggest thing for the producer is what's going to happen with the US dollar. And what's going to happen with interest rates. Is the government really going to continue this interest rate, cycle that is much lower. Like we said, interest rates out into March are already dialed in. You know, a 3.25% interest rate, three and a half, versus where we were five and a quarter, five and a half before this cut. So interest rates a big factor for, for the producer and then the dollar from a demand standpoint, as we watch inflation, we know inflation's just killed everybody.

Paul Yeager: It has and continues to be I guess pinned down in 10 seconds. Which one of those do you think is the biggest story we need to watch?

Don Roose: I think the biggest story is probably the interest rates, because that's the thing that can affect the bottom line the most short-term.

Paul Yeager: All right. Don Roose, good to see you again. Thank you.

Don Roose: Thank you Paul.

Paul Yeager: All right. That's Don Roose, everyone. Next week or first we're going to pause the analysis, continue our discussion on these markets in our market. Plus you can find both analysis and plus on our website of market to market.org. As harvest 24 gets going be sure to tag us in any of your images on Instagram. You can also see what we are posting at Market to Market Show. Next week, we'll look at the shrinking options for health care in rural America. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week.

Announcer: Market to Market is a production of Iowa PBS, which is solely responsible for its content.

Announcer: What's next? Doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because at Pioneer our name is our mission.

Announcer: Family owned and operated for more than 60 years. Sukup Manufacturing is a full service provider of grain handling, storage and drying equipment, helping farmers feed and feel the world. For over 45 years. Steiner Tractor Parts has shared your love of antique tractors. New parts for old tractors. Learn more at Steiner tractor.com or at (877) 559-7887. Tomorrow. For over 100 years.

Announcer: We've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. To trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

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