Market to Market - April 4, 2025

Paul Yeager:  Coming up on Market to Market - A new round of tariffs on more items is aimed at helping Americans.

Spring weather hits hard in many parts of the Midwest.

A look at the tradition of cheese making.

And commodity market analysis with Kristi Van Ahn Kjeseth. Next. 

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Announcer: “This is the Friday, April 4, 2025 edition of Market to Market - the Weekly Journal of Rural America.”

Hello. I’m Paul Yeager.  

Government reports and new tariffs fueled wild moves and actions across the globe.

To say the week was short on news would be drastically underselling and underreporting the story.

First, the latest jobs numbers from the Labor Department. 

Employers added 228,000 positions in March but the federal government made revisions on the totals for  the two previous months. Additions were made in the healthcare and restaurant sectors with losses recorded for government jobs.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent. Part of the movement was on those entering the workforce in search of a job.

The Dow Jones went below 40,000 this week for the first time since May of 2024 after hitting a peak above 45,000 in December. 

Several markets moved lower following Wednesday’s announcement from the Rose Garden.

Peter Tubbs breaks down the tariffs announced and the situation that could be setting the stage for a global trade war or just a massive show of bravado. 

President Donald Trump: “And today we're standing up for the American worker, and we are finally putting America first."

This week, the Trump Administration placed tariffs on imports from virtually every country on the planet, at rates that are higher than the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930.

Trade analysts estimate that up to 68% of goods imported into the United States fall under the new tariff scheme. Economists estimate the cumulative cost of tariffs could act as a $3,800 dollar annual tax on each U.S. household annually. 

While the additional costs of agricultural inputs for the 2025 crop season driven by the Trump tariffs are still being calculated, exporters of farm commodities are waiting on the reaction of trading partners around the globe. Retaliatory tariffs from export destinations would alter trade volumes in the coming months.

The global reaction to the new tariffs has been cautious as nations discuss their options both internally and with geographic partners. 

China responded with a 34% percent tariff on all American imports, and controls on the exports on rare earth materials.

Exports of bulk grain declined during the first Trump Administration primarily due to a tariff conflict with China. Farmers received over $60 billion in cash payments in 2019 and 2020 to make up for lost sales due to the tariff tiff. Grain exports rebounded during the Biden Administration, with shipments in the last four years each exceeding previous highs.

During a visit to an Iowa ethanol plant on Monday, new Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins assured farmers that an aid plan will be in place if farmers need cash to offset trade disruptions.

Sec. Brooke Rollins, U.S. Department of Agriculture: “But if necessary, we are ensuring that we are set up. We have the infrastructure ready to make whole again what that will look like.”

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs.

Paul Yeager: Spring planting is days away for the Grain Belt.

The drought monitor has hovered in the mid to upper 60’s for weeks and not gone below 60 since August of 2024.

This week’s weather pattern took on a volatile and wet change.

David Miller has our story.

Spring weather hammered portions of the Midwest and South this week as tornadoes and violent storms tore a path almost 800 miles long across the countryside. Homes were flattened and buildings ripped apart from Oklahoma to Texas to Indiana. The system also dropped record-setting rains and created a situation for life-threatening flash floods.

At least seven people were killed in western Tennessee, Missouri and Indiana in the first wave of weather that spawned powerful tornadoes. One of those tornadoes hit Lake City, Arkansas destroying homes and turning over cars. Parts of Michigan, Kentucky and Tennessee experienced localized flooding.

The storms may not be done. Weekend weather predictions include more of the same as daytime heating could combine with an unstable atmosphere and abundant moisture streaming in from the Gulf.

For Market to Market, I’m David Miller.

Paul Yeager: The dairy industry has long been one that takes one product and turns it into many others. 

Milk, butter, and yogurt rise to the top of mind first, but it is cheese that’s an industry in itself. 

The process of making cheese is centuries old and the tradition is unlike any other. 

Josh Buettner reports in our Cover Story.

Rufus “Junior” Musser IV/Owner – Milton Creamery:“It’s really neat how you just take a simple vat full of milk and six hours later you’ve got 900-thousand pounds of cheese.  There’s a lot involved in cheesemaking.  There’s art.  There’s science.  There’s passion involved.”

Rufus Musser IV, or “Junior” as he’s known in the rolling hills of southern Iowa’s Van Buren County, is an integral part of a family operation helping to boost the local economy.

Rufus “Junior” Musser IV/Owner – Milton Creamery: “You got all your different products here: Prairie Breeze, Garden Vegetable Cheddar, Tomato Garlic, Black Pepper, Caramelized Onion, Four Alarm, Old-Style Cheddar…  We are in all 50 states.”

Satisfying demand for the award-winning, globe-trotting cheddar cheese varieties crafted by Milton Creamery creates jobs and allows for profit-sharing with fellow Mennonite and Amish source dairies. 

Rufus “Junior” Musser IV/Owner – Milton Creamery: “Cheese gets made in the other building…comes out here for aging.  So what aging does – it allows the flavors to develop.  This particular cheese has been here a little over a year.”

It took a little time for Milton Creamery’s gastronomic accomplishments to ripen as well. Junior’s parents relocated their Mennonite family from Pennsylvania to Iowa in the early 1990s, away from selling homegrown produce and into dairy farming, which brought its own challenges.

Rufus “Junior” Musser IV/Owner – Milton Creamery: “We don’t have a lot of population.  So, to get much milk out there…going to have to do a lot of driving – a lot of delivery time.  Dad kept looking at the price of milk in the store, and the price he was getting on the farm, and he said: somewhere, somebody is making money in between here.”

The eureka moment came around 2000, when the elder Mussers attended a value-added dairy conference in Wisconsin and came away convinced that specialty cheesemaking, not milking cows, was their best path forward. 

Milton Creamery Employee: “That is straight off the farm, right there!”

Rufus “Junior” Musser IV/Owner – Milton Creamery: “Dad said: Here’s our niche.  This is where we need to be.  You bring milk in, being as milk is 87 percent water, you take the water off - condense it to cheese - now we can afford to ship it across the country.” 

 After breaking in and lighting up farmers markets for several years with their celebrated cheese curds, Milton Creamery unveiled Prairie Breeze to much acclaim.

Rufus “Junior” Musser IV/Owner – Milton Creamery: “The American Cheese Society would describe it as a sweeter cheddar, or a new age cheddar.  We decided that’s going to be the Cadillac.  That’s what’s going to drive the business forward, and it truly has.”

Their success allowed for expansion, which helps ensure a steady stream of customers with discerning tastes.  Just this summer, Milton Creamery’s Old Style Cheddar won gold at the International Cheese and Dairy Awards in the United Kingdom.

Megan Jennings/Villages of Van Buren County: “Well known in Van Buren County, and around the world!”

County tourism officials celebrate the Mussers and a rising tide of similar endeavors which help bring things like tax relief and school funding to local communities.

Megan Jennings/Villages of Van Buren County: “We’re very fortunate we do have the Amish and the Mennonites, and how they do work with us too.  They know that they have wealth coming in, but they also want to share it.  They support economic development.  We have bakeries, wood carving, cabinetmaking…  It offers unique tourism for people who want to experience their life, or just buy that unique craft, or food, that they make.”

The Amish reputation for exceptional craftsmanship and work ethic is well known. Though larger groups are found mostly east of Iowa, the Hawkeye state’s Amish population ranked ninth in the U.S. in 2023, at just under 10,000, according to statistics compiled by Pennsylvania’s Elizabethtown College.

Dr. Gail Carpenter/Assistant Professor & State Dairy Extension Specialist – Iowa State University: “Iowa actually has quite a large Amish-Mennonite population: a plain population.  They’re actually quite a large contributor to our agricultural sectors.  In dairy in particular, Amish milk makes up about 25 percent of the milk that’s produced here in Iowa, so they’re definitely big players.”

Iowa State University Assistant Professor and Dairy Extension Specialist Dr. Gail Carpenter says larger mainstream dairy producers, consolidated mainly into northern pockets of the state, harness various technologies to maintain high animal welfare standards and milking efficiency for their huge herds. 

She says while the Amish shun such advancements, Mennonite beliefs are less strict in practical application – though they adhere to stringent quality standards.  Complimentary partnerships have emerged, like Milton Creamery and the 5 dairy farms they buy milk from within 25 miles of their plant – the largest herd being 80 head.  Together, they leverage value-added niche opportunities inside a smaller footprint.

Dr. Gail Carpenter/Assistant Professor & State Dairy Extension Specialist – Iowa State University: “They share a lot of the same values that their producers would.  So, I think that creates a lot of trust there.  It’s also a very competitive market trying to look for places to sell milk.  It can be hard for small producers to find a co-op that wants to buy their milk from them because they just don’t have the same volume as a farm that milks a lot more cows would have.  So having that stability and that surety and that lack of risk with selling to Milton Creamery also fits in with their culture and their values as well.”

Carpenter adds each dairy cow in Iowa contributes roughly 24-thousand dollars to their local economies - and in a world of fewer producers, frayed connections between customers and food sources, a spirit of nostalgia has emerged – driving demand for products like specialty cheese.

The Musser family’s vision has led to benefits for their business and the region.  For creamery workers, hard work also pays off - in more ways than one.

Rufus “Junior” Musser IV/Owner – Milton Creamery: “Forking the cheese curds, stirring the salt in…very intense…  Also, when you put the 40-pound blocks into the hoops to put in the presses – between the weight of the hoops, plus the cheese in it – you’re looking at lifting 60, 65 pounds.  I like to tell new employees, when they start here in the production facility, you can cancel your gym membership.”

For Market to Market, I’m Josh Buettner.

announcer: Next, the Market to Market report.

Paul Yeager: Market movement was muted following Monday’s acreage and stocks report - but had a bigger response Friday to China’s counter on tariffs. 

For the week… 

The nearby wheat contract added a penny and the May corn contract gained 7 cents. 

Soybeans were down 40 cents in early trading Friday limiting some of the losses following China’s retaliation. 

The May soybean contract fell 46 cents while May meal declined $10.40 per ton.

May cotton contracted $3.56 per hundredweight. 

Over in the dairy parlor, May Class Three milk futures cut 78 cents.

The livestock market was lower. June cattle decreased $6.65. May feeders lost $10.30 and the June  lean hog contract shed $4.23. 

In the currency markets, the US dollar index declined 104 ticks. 

May crude oil plummeted nearly 11 percent or $7.35 per barrel. 

COMEX gold weakened $68.20 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index subtracted more than 10 points to settle at 550 - 25.

Joining us now is regular market analyst Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth. 

Welcome.

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: Hello.

Paul Yeager: Let's take away Friday completely out of the mix. Let's just talk about the reaction to that report. We'd hyped it up. We're guilty here on this show. Hyped it up a lot last week. Reaction muted. Then it took tariffs to move it. Why was the reaction muted even though we increased corn acreage. Increased decreased beans like we thought. Why?

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: Yeah I don't think you amped it up. This is I would say the second biggest crop report of the year. So it typically is a very important crop report. But I think that there just wasn't enough changes. So stocks for example, came in right at average estimates. So you had nothing there but the acre number. You saw very large corn acre number. The average estimate was in the mid-94s. And we got a million acres higher than that. However, even though the average estimate was 94, I think the week, week and a half leading up to that report, you had people that were more like. Given the dynamic between corn and beans, it's got to be higher than that and you have done nothing to help that situation since then. So I think you're even pushing that more right. That was your wakeup call to soybeans to say, hey, if you want more acres, you need to be doing something here. And that obviously has not happened.

Paul Yeager: So did the retaliation by China change the story? Then?

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: I think emotionally, maybe it changed the market. But when everything is said and done, I mean it's just a matter of soybeans eventually finding its bottom. You know, where is that? And in our opinion, you're very close to those lines. You're at our first support line right now for both May and November. Soybeans. it's usually you rely so heavily on these technical support lines or resistance lines. And I would be there if it weren't for the fact that you had the retaliation from China. And I do think that you will have something come back from President Trump. So that's the biggest question is over the weekend, what do we hear him say? He did say that, you know, China made the wrong decision. They made that knee jerk. But it'll be really interesting to see if he pushes those tariffs more or not.

Paul Yeager: So let's stick with soybeans then because resistance was here and you just talked about the acreage wasn't there. Does this further depress the acres number in your opinion?

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: Yeah. I just, I don't think you're really reaching out to a lot of people right now and saying, hey, let's plant some soybeans here. The general look of soybeans, one profitability is not there, but the fear of what's to come, I think, is enough to shake some people away from wanting to know when everything shakes out. You have your rotation. Like, what else are you going to go to? Especially for your core states? So it's not like you can drop it to zero by any means, but it's definitely not getting those. However, we have a lot that can change over the next month. You look at the sheer amount of moisture that has hit so many areas, and if you come in post Easter and have another forecast, that's what you're going to hear them talk about. More being acres because of the inability. And that's a lot. The current forecast is dry, but it's also cool. So you put all this moisture on there. It's cool. Will you have the ability to dry down. And if you put that next system on that's where I think you start to talk about it. And then once again, that further pushes that relationship between corn and soybeans and just makes it worse and worse and worse for soybeans. And we need to kind of hit rock bottom and soybeans. And I think eventually they will do that. And then I actually think the longer term forecast is just because of this sheer lack of acreage could be friendly soybeans. But, you know, we got to find rock bottom first.

Paul Yeager: Well, I was going to ask on that November contract, can we see the rock bottom from here?

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: I think it all depends what you hear this weekend. Rate, you know. What do you hear from President Trump? is he going to come back? And I think the big thing is right now we have two different stories. So we have China that came back with retaliatory tariffs. And then we have Vietnam, a conversation that was, hey, Vietnam is looking at taking their tariffs down to zero. They're willing to work with the US. And I think this is the big question is how many countries fall in line with what China is doing and how many fall in line with what Vietnam's doing.

Paul Yeager: Let's go to the commodity that seems to be the rebellious child, or the one with the blinders on. And it's the corn market.

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: My favorite child, right.

Paul Yeager: Oh, you picked one. Oh, that's bold.

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: But I think corn has shown such resilience. I, I really want to be friendly corn, especially old crop corn. but until it breaks out of this range, we're like, smack in between that range. Just let it be. And that's honestly how it was with soybeans. It couldn't break $10. It couldn't get above the 40 day moving average. And it just sat there, sat there, sat there. Now corn's kind of doing that same thing. But you have thrown so much bearish information at corn and it has been very resilient, that I feel good about it. And I do think that it's being able to separate itself. And I think some of that has to do with we have tighter carry outs in the US. Are they the tightest? No, not by any means, but we're definitely our tight world. Situation is tight. demand seems to be extremely hot right now. And our top buyer, Mexico, seems to be working very well with President Trump to do what it needs to do to keep this relationship really tight knit. and we need that because they're our top buyer.

Paul Yeager: Which goes back to a little bit of beans of if you really need something, maybe a deal will get worked out. some optimism that you were wrapping up. I want to ask you a corn question here. Paul in Minnesota wanted to know, Christi, any price targets or selling on new crop corn that you like?

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: Yeah. So if you look at new crop corn, you have always been able to get back to your crop insurance price from spring. That is something we rely on heavily now. Past performance is not indicative of future results. However, I do want to rely on that. I do think that you're going to get a couple stories here and there. I do think that the old crop carryout is tight enough when you pencil in that large acre number, you're also using a 181, which is what we should see in May. That's going to be really tricky to get with that many acres alone. Right. Couldn't get it to it last year. Now you're asking us to get it on all these fringe acres that are being added. So I think that corn will be able to do that. But my first target on new crop corn would be around that $4.70, $4.75 mark.

Paul Yeager: And it in in six weeks dramatically thing could change back to what your comments were at the end of soybeans given the weather.

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: Right. All right.

Paul Yeager: Let's go to wheat for a minute because that's still weather. Because when you talk about this weather line, Christy, I look at where it is the driest. It's still in that wheat country. Yep. Is that become a bullish story yet for wheat?

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: I think it was. Right. And then we dropped back off. And I think the big question is yes you talk about how dry it's been. But then, you know, there was this interesting thing that they were talking about, these storms that go in the background of these storm pictures. You're seeing winter wheat country. And I don't know about anyone else, but I was like that winter wheat looks pretty good back there. And so I think it's a question of ‘we know how drought tolerant these crops are nowadays.’ So do we really have an issue? And I think even if we had an issue, we're still looking at an abundance of supply. Here in the US, wheat is very similar to corn tight on the world situation. So I think that's wheat friendly. But the friendliest thing I think for wheat is the fact that if we can bottom here, the chart looks really good here, looking at a W formation, double bottom. And if you really wanted to go back, there's a couple more bottoms past that that are all very similar here. So if we can get out of here what it was trying to do, I would feel very good about it. But we got a setback this week.

Paul Yeager: Looking at that chart. Is that why you put hedges on to protect yourself in case what happened this week on week?

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: Yeah, I think the big thing is just the unknowns that are out there. When you look at all of these markets in general, I mean, you can put it on cattle as well. Cash can be as strong as it is, and you can continue to see that support on the cash side of things. But realistically, we have some real threats here. And the big thing when you talk about the tariffs, it doesn't matter if it's making an immediate impact or not. On the demand side of things, the emotional impact is there. And we saw it today. You see it with the stock market. You see it with the crude oil. Right. Crude oil down so hard the last two days. Lower crude oil prices are not a friend to corn.

Paul Yeager: Which at this point hasn't needed any. But as you said thrown a lot of things. Let's go to livestock because that's had a lot thrown at it. Limit down on the three that we cover the majority. Let's start with live cattle. that gap lower than limit down. Is this the end of the longs?

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: You know, I think that you probably have about six more box. So when you look at it somewhere between, you know, when you're talking about June live cattle 188 192 I think is going to be that solid level of resistance, as long as you can start to see that breather in the stock market, you know you're down. I think it's 15% on the Dow market rate. history has told us that when you're down 15% or 10 to 20%, it takes seven months to get back for that stock market. And so you're looking at and then saying, hey, we got to rebuild this. We got to get this going. But I do think that you have that resistance or that, that level around that 188 to 192, where you start to see that retracement of 50% retracement from last August that you start to see those buyers come back in. But we need to see that liquidation, which made me happy about corn, which made me happy about soybeans, as you were having the ability to for manage money to really sell these markets before we got to this point. So you can come in with fresh buyers. I don't know if livestock saw that necessarily. We weren't all that far away from record long holdings and live cattle. How much did you really see? So I think you're seeing those funds leave now, but that would be my target.

Paul Yeager: Are they leaving the feeder market then?

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: Yeah, I think it's similar. Right. I think you just follow that stock market and just the fears that you could see. I don't know if tariffs are all that ugly in general maybe for, for cattle, but it's just the emotional side of things in the stock market for hogs.

Paul Yeager: also limit down on Friday. But that came after we had good export volume.

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: Huge export volume. When you look at the hog market, same situation, I think summer hogs, when you look at it, you're supports probably around 88 bucks, three bucks lower I think it is when you look at them overall, you got a friendly hog and pig report. I felt like that was enough to give a little bit of support. And really, when you look at the tie for hogs, Mexico is so key there. And so is Canada playing a big role in it. And so far we've had good relationships with them or they're working towards those good relationships. Right. You have not seen them involved in this last round and hopefully that's enough. But I would say you look at those retracement counts and you're getting close.

Paul Yeager: So of the three livestock then the only one that really or any of those going to get caught up in tariff talk or is it more economic talk because of tariffs.

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: Yeah. So I think when I look at cattle my concern would be right. So you're going to tariff these the cows coming in. Right. You talk about the cattle coming in. and you've, you've had this argument from producers for so long saying we need to stop these from coming in, which is great. You stop them from coming in. But does that mean that the buying just follows them to their countries, or do we see exports remain strong for the US? And I think that's what we're going to watch is that it's if you keep the cattle out, we need to make sure that our exports aren't completely dropping off as well.

Paul Yeager: All right, Kristi, thank you so much.

Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth: Appreciate it. Thank you.

Paul Yeager: All right. Kristi Van Ahn - Kjeseth thank you. 

We are going to pause this analysis and continue our discussion about these markets in our Market Plus segment. You can find both Analysis and Plus on our website of markettomarket.org.

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Next week, a look at CRP compliance across the U.S.

Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week.

Announcer: What's next doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because at Pioneer our name is our mission.

Announcer: For over 45 years, Steiner Tractor Parts has shared your love of antique tractors. New parts for old tractors. Learn more at Steinertractor.com or at (877) 559-7887.

Announcer: Tomorrow. For over 100 years. We've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

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