Cattle producers face two major headwinds in Southern Plains

Michael Kelsey, Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association: We're in really troubling times. It's weather related and economy related as to things I would say is what I'm hearing more than anything. And then as you look at the average age of the beef producer, not only in Oklahoma that even across the country, but in Oklahoma is not unique. In that sense, the average age of the producer, whether you're in the cattle business, or farming, corn, or whatever, we all know that age is creeping up. And so we're gonna see a lot of generational transfer. And so sometimes the drought and the economy actually excels that in not a good way, sometimes it can be good, but not necessarily so water right now, drought, whether we're hauling water to cattle or trying to figure out how in the world water the cattle. That's, that's really tough plus, then the forage basis, or I should say, the lack of forages, because of the drought and even the outlook. We're a strong wheat pasture country, as you well know, we graze a lot we import a lot of cattle in Oklahoma, mainly from the southeast is where they primarily come from Kentucky and south and so forth. Boy howdy, you it's gonna be tough to do that this year, because we're just not going to have the wheat pasture unless conditions improve, and so that the Outlook doesn't look very promising right now from a drought and then you tack on the economy. And the economy. What I mean by that is cattle prices, you're talking to a cattleman. So cattle prices could always be better, right? I mean, they can always be better. But cattle prices really are pretty strong right now, beef demands really strong considering, but boy howdy when you factor in $4.50 diesel, and the supply chain challenges of where do I even get hay. What is corn going to cost? What are your feed stuffs going to cost? How am I going to ship it in? All of those input costs are just really challenging folks. And so we're hearing a lot of of concern. We're, we're also hearing a lot of selling a lot I would say right now I'm talking to Dr. Derrell Peel, last week about this very question, you know, how many cows have we sold in the state of Oklahoma? What's our cow herd? In other words, and we're probably his, he said, You know, I'm gonna kind of guess this, but it's eight to 12%. I wouldn't disagree with him at all. And I think we're going to see another sale of cows, because a lot of our members are telling us they don't have enough hay to get the cows that they still have through the winter. And so we may have to sell some more cows. So is it theoretically possible that we'll sell 20% of our cows in the state of Oklahoma? And I think the answer is yes, I hope not.

Paul Yeager: Well, what timeframe? Are you talking here? When you say eight to 12?

Michael Kelsey: Right, eight to 12 would be Oh, that's a good question. So it would be relative to this time last year. Okay.

Paul Yeager: So we're talking annual?

Michael Kelsey: Yeah, yeah. So this time last year, we can share and you know, we weren't bumper crop of cows, but we were a healthy cow. We were very healthy cow herd this time last year.

Paul Yeager: Now. Now, I know you said things are connected and we know that they are but if you had to say one is leading the other and why someone's making a sale, is there a leader, drought?

Michael Kelsey: Drought, definitely drought right now.

Paul Yeager: Dry since 2010, '11 and '12. You hadn't started on the job yet? And it was that dry. Remember that drought? I think we had video out of Oklahoma and we saw the sale barns were full. Are you seeing a repeat of what it was? 10 years ago?

Michael Kelsey: We Yeah, we've we've slowed down a little bit, because we sold them earlier. Yeah, so we're seeing less now because we sold them earlier. Okay. I think I'm afraid we're going to see another resurgence here in the next month or two.

Paul Yeager: Well, and so I guess that I guess the reason I bring it up is it's a little misleading when you see Oh, sales aren't so bad. That's because everything has been sold already. And if it's if it's not going to another feedlot or another pasture, and it's going to slaughter of course that animals not going to resurface.

Michael Kelsey: That's right. And she's our factory. Yeah. She's our fact. She's what makes the calves you know, calf prices. Next year, you're after it's gonna be great, right? Because we're selling all these cows will have fewer calves. But if you don't have any cows to make calves, then you don't really care what calf price is.

          The full interview was released Tuesday as part of the MtoM Podcast. Subscribe via our YouTube channel for the video version or follow on your preferred audio podcast format.

Contact: Paul.Yeager@iowapbs.org