Study Estimates Tariff War Risks

A return of tariff politics would damage farm incomes, according to a study commissioned by the American Soybean Association and the National Corn Growers Association.

The study, conducted by World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services, estimates a dramatic drop in corn and soybean exports to China if retaliatory tariffs return to the trade relationship. Details in the white paper show that higher tariffs on soybeans imported by China would cause them to cut purchases by 51 percent, a decline of 16 million metric tons. Corn imports to China would nosedive by an estimated 81 percent or nearly 2.2 million metric tons.

Former President Donald Trump, March 8, 2018: “Today, I am defending America’s national security by placing tariffs on foreign imports of steel and aluminum,”

Former President Donald Trump has made high tariffs on imported products a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign. The 2018 decision to increase the duty on Chinese imports during the Trump Administration sparked a tariff war that caused a dramatic drop in exports to China. The fallout from the move included a series of federal relief payments to American farmers totalling $28 billion.  Researchers also predict China would turn to Brazil to fill the gap cutting into U.S. marketshare. Also, Brazilian farmers would put more land into production to increase their output to meet Chinese demand.

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs.