War Could Delay Ukraine Spring Planting and Drive Third World Hunger Crisis

Russia and Ukraine account for about half of the global sunflower production.

War has disrupted the flow of seed and oil from the bright yellow and green flower along with other crops needed in the global food chain. 

Here’s Josh Buettner with more.

Roman Leshchenko/Minister of Agriculture - Ukraine: “Today, Ukraine has no choice.  We have to limit our exports to ensure our survival.  Because, we don’t understand when we’ll have the opportunity to start our agriculture season.”

This week, Ukraine’s Minister of Agriculture addressed the European Parliament on the issue of food security as Russia’s protracted invasion of Ukraine limped past the one month mark.  Continued attacks have left outlook for the embattled country’s winter wheat harvest stuck in the mud, while spring grain planting expectations have been cut in half from pre-war predictions.  Some local farmers have fled, taken up arms, or heeded government advice to plant alternative cereal grains, like peas and buckwheat, for local consumption.

Roman Leshchenko/Minister of Agriculture - Ukraine: “They are sowing under heavy shelling and dangerous occupied and mined areas under the risk of losing their lives.”

Comparative data from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service reveals Ukraine’s average corn and wheat production areas, encroached by Russian advancement – and Black Sea ports – where the “breadbasket of Europe” normally ships key grain and fertilizer to Africa and the Middle East – is besieged.  Ukrainian officials expect remaining port and farm infrastructure will be destroyed in coming weeks - warning a regional hunger crisis could ensue as supply is choked off and prices skyrocket worldwide. 

Dr. Joseph Glauber/Senior Research Fellow/International Food Policy Research Institute – Washington, D.C.: “Corn and soybean prices are real high too, so I’m not sure farmers will necessarily say ‘well let’s plant a lot more wheat’, when they’re getting equal or better returns from other crops.”

Former USDA chief economist and current International Food Policy Research Institute Senior Fellow Dr. Joseph Glauber says the situation in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia should coax out extra wheat exports from countries like India and Brazil, but it’s hardly enough to make up for 30 percent of global supplies being hindered by the consequences of war.

Dr. Joseph Glauber/Senior Research Fellow/International Food Policy Research Institute – Washington, D.C.: “Ukraine alonel is like 50 percent of the global share of sunflower oil exports.  In my understanding, those crush operations are not operating right now.  So there’s a lot of sunflowers that were harvested from the previous crop that haven’t been processed and haven’t gone to market yet.”

Some commodity analysts are bullish soybeans as Ukranian oilseed supply is disrupted.

President Joe Biden: “We’re in the process of working out, with our European friends, what it would be, what it would take to alleviate the concerns relative to food shortages.”

President Biden pledged over $1 billion in humanitarian aid this week while on a trip to Europe, and another $11 billion over the next five years to address global food security as a result of the war.  Additionally, NATO allies ratcheted up another round of sanctions on Russian individuals and entities including 40 Russian defense companies and more than 300 members of the Duma – Russia’s ruling legislative body.

For Market to Market, I’m Josh Buettner. Twitter: @mtmjosh