Market Plus with Sue Martin

Paul Yeager: Welcome to the table for the Friday, November 22nd, 2024 Installment of Market Plus. Sue Martin is with us again. Sue, we're going to talk beans, hogs, cattle. Got to answer some questions. But I want to start with weather. Dan in Nebraska is going to lead us off here. What are the growing years like after a perfect growing season? Now you first have to, you've already disagreed with me, Sue, that this is not a perfect growing season. But what can we expect weather wise here next?

Sue Martin: I think the weather going forward is, I think your winter is going to be colder. now, granted, the one weather service I was telling you about, I haven't seen his full entity, but I think the when winter's going to be a colder winter than we had this past year. Of course, I wouldn't take much. And I also think we're going to have more snow. And then as we get towards summer, I think it's going to be interesting because Dr. Elwin Taylor would be quick to remind you of the 89 year cycle, and this would be the year that should relate to 1936. So and that year, the winter before you had a horrible winter. And so I don't know.

Paul Yeager: So if we're buried in snow come February 15th look out is what you're saying.

Sue Martin: I'm hoping my guy comes and cleans us up.

Paul Yeager: Yeah, exactly. Because you're not going out. Let's go. Joe in Iowa next to, what's the window of time to be considering lock in of ‘25 pricing?

Sue Martin: I think the window, for beans, I think, could come up for corn, and that's not uncommon. I think it'll be. I'm going to watch January, but I think it's going to be more into March. And, then, you know, we look at the Brazilian crop and they're going to start to steal our thunder, especially if we have a high priced dollar. Interest rates don't appear like they're going to drop a whole lot more. That makes letter of credits more expensive. So I think we're going to find that we'll have to compete at that time. With Brazil starting to harvest the beans and what have you. And that probably will be more March April. Sometimes beans can push in a year of five into May, but, I, I think corn I'm going to look more towards the April, May, June timeframe, but I think both of them are not good as we go towards the latter part of the year. And I also think if we have to have something that tries to hold us together, to make us take us higher, it's got to be for us. It's got to be a weather market, a really good stiff weather market.

Paul Yeager: Even though come January we might know, might get confirmation of that crop was smaller.

Sue Martin: Yes. I'm of the opinion that the yield in corn is not as high as they thought. It's still a record, but I don't think it's the 183 something that they want to say. It is. I don't think it's 182.8 I and of course we were well over last year's 177.1. I still think the corn yields coming down in the final. The soybeans started coming down pretty good in this, November report. And it could come down again. I don't think it'll be majorly though. They took a pretty big step back on this last report. So I think as we go towards the January report, we'll probably see a little smaller in beans as well. So then it goes over to the demand side.And of course, you know, we know that we've got South America. that we're dealing with. Our exports are ahead of a year ago now. And in both beans and corn. Mexico has been very avid in corn and even been coming in for some beans. you know, used to always be was Japan. Now it's Mexico. So I think and everybody's worried, they say, well, this is all happening because of President Trump elect coming into office. And he just did tariffs. And there's less, tenure. And thinking he'll do it again. I tend to be an optimist. You'd never guess that. What would you do with $30 beans?

Paul Yeager: So, somebody wanted $25 corn answer today, but that's another discount. Yeah.

Sue Martin: And, but I don't think President Trump's going to utilize tariffs. I don't think he's going to have to, with Mexico, I don't think he'll have to. And I think with China, I have a feeling they know what's going to happen. Now, granted, if he does, they're going to say, okay, fine, we'll just cancel all these beans. Fine. But, you know, China's been known to do that anyway, so.

Paul Yeager: Right. late Friday, Kelly Leoffler, former senator from Georgia, was announced to be the president-elect's pick for secretary of agriculture. What do you know about her? What could she do? Bring to agriculture? We have somebody head of USDA from Georgia again.

Sue Martin: Well, we do, I guess I don't see much change. You know, I think that, it'll be interesting to watch. I thought Sonny Perdue did a good job. I guess I don't know Kelly real well of her, so it'll be interesting to watch, but I think that, I think there's so many changing, irons in the fire for when President Trump takes office that I think there's probably some things that we're not even thinking of. You know, I have seen some, comments where he may elect to take us off of federal income tax and put us on, consumer tax. And that, in effect, would bring companies away from China and other countries and bring them back to the US. but also, you know, then we aren't paying that, you know, increased price for consumers because of tariffs.

Paul Yeager: And, yeah, there's a whole lot of unknowns. And we have to let some things unfold. It's curious about your tariff, conversation. But I guess Tim's question is maybe not looking at things is rosy. How long is this price downturn going to last? Two years or 10.

Sue Martin: I don't think it's 10. I think that what we're looking at is this next year, I think it's going to be tough on farmers. And so they need to do their pricing. I think they'll tend to do their pricing much quicker than they did this last year, because you always remember the most recent and they held on way too late and it didn't pay off very well. So this next year, I think they're going to be more aggressive in making their sales, and that might be a good thing. I think that, then as we go from 25 into 26, I think we start to turn our tide and maybe start looking at things, getting better as we move towards 28.

Paul Yeager: Which goes back to the we have to let some things play out and kind of see how they unfold. So yeah, yeah there's a lot that's but again, it's back to that. We got to have perfect growing conditions or at least optimal. Doesn't have to be perfect, but we have to be better. but let's get back into livestock. We have two livestock questions. Let's go. Beef first. Brock in Montana. Brock is new to submit a question. So thank you, Brock. We are thinking about retaining all of our heifer calves till spring or even breeding most of them this spring and then run through the summer, I think. What are your thoughts?

Sue Martin: I’d for go for it. I think the prices are going to be awesome. So and the thing is, the whole pack of heifers, he's going to you know, he's kind of thinking about that, you know, are holding back for breeding. The price of feeder calves should be very, very good. April, May.

Paul Yeager: Which is always the temptation.

Sue Martin: To feed him on out, too.

Paul Yeager: Feed him on out or move on.

Sue Martin: And you have to be one thing careful. because we have less numbers of cattle and we're feeding them heavier. But, we'll have less numbers again as we see this hold back. And that's going to tighten the supply very tight. So the prices continue to push. Now the thing is years of a “five” lot of times in cattle, which tends to be a year that we see hold back and retaining of heifers and for breeding and what have you also lead you into the whiplash effect where prices are at their peak and then drop. And so I guess I'd sell them as feeders, especially if we see some moisture. Oh my goodness. Yeah.

Paul Yeager: You wanted to discuss the hog market a little bit more. We talked about this, political deal with China, going to Brazil saying we need more red meat, but they're also talking about hogs. What do you want to talk about? Hogs?

Sue Martin: Well, I just wanted to say, when I look at December hogs. First off, you know, again, seeing a large four with a small C on Elliott wave just underneath this week's low market rally, it's trying to lift. We closed near our high on Friday. I wanted to just add in there that, you know, the hog index is, I think, around 87.08 or something like that. And if the market rallies and tries to align with the Hog index, preferably moving up and not the index coming down, I would think 87.75 on December hogs is pretty good. Resistance 90 is pretty tough, 90 to 91 is pretty tough resistance on February. So just enough way out there.

Paul Yeager: And also, not necessarily completely tied together, but sometimes it is being meal you think is a possibility of a rallying point. Is that good or bad for hogs and good or bad for beans?

Sue Martin: Well, it's very cheap right now. And it'll help, you know, it's been the spotlight's been on soy oil and of course, soy oil hit the skids late this week, mainly because Malaysian palm oil fell apart, but it had been way high. I think soy meal is going to start to gain favor, and that is going to eventually get the beans caught here and turn them around and rally with the meal. I think end users should be booking meal, and I’d probably book it through March at least.

Paul Yeager: This was the question I was supposed to get in during the show, and I ran through it there, and I'm almost running through it now, so I need to get it in. By the way, thank you, for the question. Some of them we asked in analysis. We didn't ask them specifically. Phil. That's what we did there. Thank you for letting me borrow your question, Sylvain in Quebec. So since the beginning of this marketing year, commodity seem to trade lower, even with some export sales numbers being announced, have markets already expected these sales or are they just not large enough to react positively? What would make this trend change?

Sue Martin: Well, demand markets are always harder to detect or to quantify. I think the market has ignored some of the sales because it's caught up in the carry outs that we had, which now are dropping or have downsized. And you look around the world and we're seeing tightening supplies globally and even in wheat. And I think then you get the situation going overseas, the potential now you're worrying about nukes possibly in the Black Sea region. And I think all of that gels this market to where all of a sudden, you know, the focus on the sales is kind of like more political and what have you landscape rather than the actual demand, because our export sales on beans are running ahead now. Corn sales running very well and wheat has a little work to do, but it'll come along too. So I think when I look at the fact that the market looks like it's ignored some of these sales, I think it's just waiting. I think it wants President Trump to get in and see just what does he do with tariffs? And if he doesn't because they're all anticipating the bearish they're the more negative attitude. Well China to just cancel all the sales they've been buying and go to, go to Brazil. They might do that anyway.

Paul Yeager: They've already proven that. They've you know they're not afraid to go ring up Brazil. Exactly, I appreciate your time. It is so good to see you. Have a great Thanksgiving.

Sue Martin: Thank you. And you too, and all your listeners.

Paul Yeager: I appreciate it. Sue Martin, everyone, a reminder to get signed up for our new free newsletter at Markettomarket.org. It's right there on our page. Next week we are going to check economic conditions on Main Street and in the fields of America. Ernie Goss and Chris Robinson, we talked to them in July. We're going to talk to them here at Thanksgiving. Thanks for joining us. Have a great week.

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