Market Plus with Naomi Blohm, Matt Bennett and Ted Seifried

Paul Yeager: Welcome back to the. Friday, March 28th, 2025. This is Market Plus. This is a panel discussion that I'm glad we started when we did and not before. Ted Seifried here. Hi, Ted.

Ted Seifried: Hi, Paul.

Paul Yeager: Hey, Matt Bennett, good to have you back. Naomi bloom, did you feel that we were. Did we cover a lot of ground? Do you think we covered enough ground on the TV show?

Naomi Blohm: I would give it an A+ for all of our efforts and our commentary. And I am a tough grader.

Paul Yeager: What's the most important thing you think was said in that first segment?

Naomi Blohm: I really feel the point about acres, I think was right on as far as being a leading factor for next week. The quarterly stocks, important as well as I said. But acres are the big component. And I feel also that a lot of countries are watching what's happening in the United States and then getting into the weather plays as summer goes on. So we have a lot of, a lot of good ground.

Paul Yeager: Well, Ted, what is happening in the United States right now? What is the big story? You talk about whether we, the tariffs I wanted to ask you about. I'm sorry, I'm going to go six questions for a minute. You just pick one, okay. You had said something about the market doesn't necessarily respond to certain things, but is the market already, like, stopped reacting to tariffs as much as it did in the beginning? And so if a report on one day and then whatever happens on April 2nd is different, does it matter?

Ted Seifried: Yeah. Well, first of all, Paul, you can ask six questions. It doesn't matter. I'm going to still talk about whatever I want to talk.

Paul Yeager: I know you've been on, we've been on this together enough, so. Right, right.

Ted Seifried: No, no, what I said was that sometimes we get jaded about things, right? Mad Cow is, is what I use for my, my main example. Because the first time there was Mad Cow right across the border in Canada on Christmas Eve, we went bonkers. The next time we were like, okay. And then finally we really don't pay attention to that anymore. Kind of the same thing for bird flu. And at some point you say that's happening with Russia, Ukraine and news coming out of that. tariffs. No, I don't think we've gotten to that point. Right. We are still in the discovery process of what is going to happen with the tariffs, what responses are going to be to the tariffs that we potentially put on on April 2nd? What's going to happen with the port fees that we want to put on any vessel that has any sort of link to China, is this is unknown, right? We are not jaded to that yet. That will have a very big impact. And you ask, Naomi, what's the most important thing that was said in the first segment or the, the show segment? I think the biggest takeaway that you have to have going into next week is that the first half of the week is going to be absolutely dominated by USDA, but the greater, bigger picture might trump all of that by the end of the week. I'm hoping that's not the case. I'm hoping we can just continue to trade grain fundamentals throughout the, the next six months growing season and all that. But you have to be mindful of what's going on in the bigger picture. Global fundamentals, global economy, how trade relations are going to work out going forward.

Paul Yeager: Matt, you've been on the road just like everybody at this table has, customers. Clients. What are they asking? I mean, are they paying attention to tariffs? Are they paying attention to the weather? Did the USDA outlook them that you were a part of? Did that reaction generate the most interest from people you talked to?

Matt Bennett: Yeah, I think they're definitely weather. It comes up every time I go anywhere pretty much throughout the entire corn Belt, especially north of me and west, you know, so you could say up into northern Illinois, over into Iowa, Nebraska, the Dakotas, people are dry for the most part, and uncomfortably dry. It's not just that. Yeah. I mean, I mean, so moisture. And so this is a bad time of year to get your moisture. And I don't think that they wanted this because you want to plan into somewhat dry conditions. But you know, so they're concerned about that as far as the outlook for me when I it was it was, it was fun to be a part of. I had a lot of good feedback. But, you know, a couple of different people just asked me, hey, on acres, don't you think you're too high? Because I was just floating 95 five? I said, it's an idea I had. And part of the reason was all the meetings I've done have been asking people, how are you guys are going to plant more corn? What you did last year in virtually every hand goes up in most rooms I've been in, especially Iowa and into the Dakotas. So, you know, whenever they, whenever I talk to these people, they say, hey, how, how much is too much? Whenever profitability is where it's at. And I said, well, you got to ask yourself what soybean profitability? Because if I go back two years and I come up with a 94.6 where we're at two years ago, you know, I'm making the case that 94.6 is the baseline. And the reason is because whenever corn was six bucks trying to entice people to plant corn, back then beans were 13. Now you've got 4 bucks for 9.75 for beans. And guys are just saying, gals are just saying, if we can't make money there.

Paul Yeager: I don't pull numbers as good as all you. I have to always write them down. Naomi, I think in your newsletter this morning you said the the average of the estimates is 94.36. So a little lower than what he's saying. What, what's, is there a magic number come next week.

Naomi Blohm: I really think if we come in anywhere near that 94 number, it's priced into the market already, period. And the market is going to ignore it and say, all right, we priced it in. Let's look at the next thing. So it would be a game changer if the number was more than 95 or towards that 96 level. There was one group out there today that said 97 of that was actually happened. That would be really frustrating, but it would be quite friendly for the soybean market. you know, kind of back to the trade and tariffs, though, you know, one thing that people around the world need to remember with President Trump is that he wants the deals to get done. 

Naomi Blohm: And any time he's talking about trade in tariff, he always says there's a deal to be made. And I think people just need to get over any feelings they may have about him one way or the other and get down to business. And I can understand different countries wanting to maintain their look of being tough on a stance or tough on their situation, but at the end of the day, the deal needs to get done and Trump is a good enough business person where he knows both sides need to have good things happening. So I think let's just get these deals done so we can all move on.

Paul Yeager: The only yeah, I know, the only thing I'm going to say is, is it a deal? Is it a good deal or a deal? And at what point does the market start going. That's not a good deal. I know it's a deal and that's what the White House is going to that's I think where some of the resistance and hesitation, sorry.

Matt Bennett: I think you know, one thing that Ted said that is paramount is he said potential tariffs. I mean, last couple terms, we got to the point of the first of the month. It's like, oh, we're going to wait another month here. And what what has happened here? And I agree with somewhat with Naomi is that he's saying this is what we're going to do. And the reason why there's a difference between threatened tariffs and instituted tariffs. Right. And so essentially he's trying to elicit a response. I'm not saying he's right. Don't persecute me here. It's just a matter if that's what he's trying to do is he's trying to bargain in. Has there been some movement? Yeah, there has been. The last thing I'll say on trade in tariffs is that we do have some pretty big imbalances with people. And I feel like there's nothing wrong with saying, hey, until we get these imbalances figured out, we're doing reciprocal tariffs. If you're going to go 25%, we're going to go 25%. I think that it makes sense to me.

Ted Seifried: I'm trying to be good. I'm trying to go, okay.

Paul Yeager: Well then I'll give you the first question.

Ted Seifried: For no. Okay. Well first of all, you know, they say trade wars are quick and easy to win, right? So we'll see about that. I think it's very interesting the dynamics of how this has been handled so far in the last couple of months. You get the feeling that we're playing good cop, bad cop with Canada and Mexico. We're being really tough on on Canada, really tough on Canada. And, you know, when we talk about fentanyl coming over the borders and things like that, it's really more of a Mexico problem. But we are really being tough on Canada. Whereas with Mexico we're being really rather friendly. I feel like, the concessions that we're making seem to be going towards Mexico. And I think we're doing this in the timing of all this is because we're showing the world, look, we can either be really mean to one of our best allies, and we can be really friendly. Like it depends on how you want to play the game. We can be either or, but there's a stark difference between how we're playing the game with Canada, how we're playing with game with Mexico, and what we're doing with China. There's virtually zero communication, zero dialog happening with China trying to fix these. The tariffs that we have put on top of the already, standing tariffs. We're not working to deal with China, at least if it's happening. It's happening behind the scenes. But there's no talk of doing anything with China. I think that the the message message to China is that we are going to be exceptionally hard on you and there's really no negotiation unless you guys come to try to make concessions first. I think this this the deal with China is going to be a much, much harder deal to get than with any other country in the world.

Naomi Blohm: And I think it's interesting. I mean, what you're saying with their tariffs to China, they're at 10%. And with the tariffs back that China is putting at us the things that they need from us the most, they have a smaller percentage tariff on it. And the things that they, don't need as much. They have a larger percentage tariff. So like specifically it was 15% with corn and wheat because they don't actually import as much corn and wheat from us. But the soybean number was a 10% tariff because they actually do need to be able to buy some beans from us. So yeah, we'll we'll be watching.

Ted Seifried: China likes to leave their options open. They don't want to put absolute tariffs on us necessarily. But they're going to tell their buyers stay away from the US as much as you possibly can. Oh look at the amount of sales that we have on the books for new crop soybeans. It's the smallest that we've had in like 20 years. Yeah. And that that's coming from last year was really small. At this time in year two, they tell their state owned buyers, which is all of their buyers really don't buy from the U.S. unless you have to, but they leave the door open because they realize that they can't buy all their needs from South America.

Naomi Blohm: Absolutely.

Paul Yeager: Okay. Matt gets this question, and I thank you to all who've submitted questions. Probably only you get like one. That's okay. Glen in Ohio, sent us this one in on X in this poker game of international grain trade in cargo shipments. Currently who appears to have the winning hand? China. Brazil or the US? Matt, who's bluffing. As a farmer, I really don't like the cards that we're holding.

Matt Bennett: I mean, clearly the cards we're holding are pretty tough. I mean, if you look at Brazil's situation, Brazil is exporting the heck out of corn and beans the last couple, three years. Right now, they don't have a whole lot of corn. They exported a ton of corn. And it's part of the reason that I think there could be some volatility this summer. It's just our competitors and how much that they lack. You look at China and China is not exporting anything. We know that as far as our products that we're worried about corn, soybeans, you know, and then you look at the U.S, the U.S is definitely beholden to we have to have a fair amount of export activity. That's all there is to it. We've built in as far as corn's concerned, a pretty decent export number, but I think we've overshot it big time here this year. And so who's bluffing? I mean, who's in the best seat right now? I feel like the US is in a really good situation as far as this corn export situation goes. But on soybeans, in my opinion, I think that it's going to be tough moving forward. I'm afraid that you're going to come in and have to lower bean exports at some point. You know, it's a distinct possibility, especially if these cancellations happen, like Naomi talked about. Whereas on corn, I don't think there's any direction to go other than seeing those exports grow.

Ted Seifried: The clear winner is Brazil. Clear winner is Brazil. They're not fighting with anybody. They're getting all the benefit of any extra business. I mean, they're having, they're having a time in Brazil right now.

Matt Bennett: Weather stocks are so low on and corn.

Ted Seifried: Absolutely. Although they always run themselves out of corn basically. But look, when it comes to the major players or the combatants in this, that's not Brazil. us first China. Really? you know, Matt, you say we don't really export a lot from China or China doesn't export much. We don't buy a lot of time, man, I guarantee you that half the things that you are wearing. 

Matt Bennett: Not touching in that. Just talking corn and beans.

Ted Seifried: Yes, of course. Agricultural. That's what we're here to talk about is agricultural things. But the fact of the matter is the US economy is dependent on buying a lot of stuff from China. Right. And that can hurt us. Now, I think we have the strongest resolve. Yeah. So in that shape or form I think maybe we have the strongest cards, but look, this could get really nasty from a global economic perspective. And it can really hurt demand for things like beef, which in turn demand for things like, feed grains, for, for fuels, feedstock for fuels as well. China is really trying to move away from their pork demand, but also the amount of protein they feed pork. They're trying to adjust their feed rations to cheaper, more corn. I mean, there's a lot going on here that make you very concerned about what the global trade market tariffs are. No tariffs. what that might look like going forward. So I'm going to go back to what you said in the main program. We need to be doing whatever we can to develop domestic demand for soybeans. let's take on Argentina on the meal export market, but also biofuels. Right. So yes, domestic demand. That's that's the change that needs to happen in American agriculture to be sustainable for the longer period of time.

Naomi Blohm: And I don't think it's any, any secret like, Secretary Rollins, they announced today she's doing some trade mission trips to, other countries to try to get them to more interested in our ag products. so it was two in South America, and I feel those three in Southeast Asia. And the other one, I feel like I was the United Kingdom. So there are also doing the behind the scenes work that if things fall through with, China on, on the trade issues that they're trying to get other customers lined up for us as well.

Paul Yeager: All right. Naomi Bloom, thank you. I appreciate your time. Matt Bennett, good to see you. Good to see you, Ted. Always.

Ted Seifried: Yeah, always a pleasure. Great to see Paul. 

Paul Yeager: Good to see you. Thank you everybody. Thank you. Please check them out. Check out the TV show. Check out the Market Plus: watch it. Listen. Read it. See what these intelligent people have to say. I want to let you know that we give you feedback and insight on what's coming up on the Market Insider newsletter, which comes out each and every Monday. Subscribe at Markettomarket.org. By the way, we are coming to Lincoln, Nebraska on Monday. They are still just a couple of tickets left. If you want to see, we'll talk with Ross Baldwin for a live taping of the MtoM podcast. Next week on the TV show will honor the tradition of cheesemaking. And no, I did not make this up. The analysis of Kristi Van Ahn Kjeseth. Thanks for joining us. Have a great week.

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