Market Plus with Jeff French

Paul Yeager: Welcome back to the table for the Friday, April 18th, 2025 market plus Jeff French still with us here. And Jeff, we normally record this show on Thursday. This year we're doing it on Friday. So that allows me to have the weather discussion with you. All right. Rain was in the forecast. How big of a deal? You kind of talked about this during the program about weather forecast. How big of a deal is it on trade right now with forecasts on the 18th of April? When does the forecast become heavier or lighter on the trade?

Jeff French: The forecast will become, you know, as the critical stages of the growing season, obviously during pollination for the corn and then August, during bean pod fill. So, right now the rain, I, you know, again, I said it on the main show, I think it's it's more beneficial. I mean, it recharges the soils, but also it's the lack of rain in some of the areas, you know, Kansas didn't get any of this, and, they remain dry. So, we'll just have to see if it continues. If it gets too wet. That could definitely have an effect on, you know, the acres that get planted. But right now, I think the market takes it as beneficial, which means a little bit bearish.

Paul Yeager: Had a conversation with the producer in Ohio. And their story is completely different than it is back here in the west part of the Corn Belt. Marketing. With that knowledge, how do you do that?

Jeff French: Well, I think you just got to look at, you know, you know, your cost of production. You know, where we're at historically, and, you know, we're in kind of this two different worlds now with the old crop and the new crop, especially in the corn, and the old crop corn, I mean, demand has been excellent, and we've seen the old crop July really rally stronger than the December. On that July Dec spread here the last couple days. They gave some back here this week on kind of this breather, but, you know, we'll just have to see what happens. But right now, it's it's demand focus. But all of a sudden here, it's going to switch to what's going to happen here with the forecast. Absolutely.

Paul Yeager: Let's talk old crop, shall we. And how much is still out there in the field? Mike had a question that he sent to us and he wanted to know, as of this date, what percentage of the 24 harvested for corn crop has been marketed, delivered or contracted? What's the percentage of last year's crop left to sell?

Jeff French: So last year's crop, you know, from the guys. And I spoke to a lot of them when you sent me that question. You know, I heard anywhere from obviously it's all gone, to as much as we got 40% left. So I think nationally, I think there's probably maybe 20 to 25% still in the farmers bin. But you see these basis levels, they really ratcheted up here the last couple weeks. But, when the prices moved higher, the basis level starting to weaken a little bit. So, there is still supply out there because when the rally comes, it brings out the bushels. 

Paul Yeager: Well, how do you know that? I mean, you can't just call every. But not every farmer can call every farmer around the world and say, how much corn do you have left?

Jeff French: Well, I think you look at number one, the price, the price the market will know. And then look at the basis. Yeah, the basis levels. When that basis level gets tighter, closer to the futures market or even above the futures price, which we saw that the last couple weeks in certain areas. They're needing the corn. And if they're not getting it out there, that basis level continues to move higher. So, I think there's probably 20 to 25% left nationally.

Paul Yeager: And for some, they, no matter what that market did, no matter how many days it was above $5, they weren't going to sell because they wanted six.

Jeff French: Yeah, I don't know. You know, do you have to ask the individual, you know, maybe they didn't need the money. I don't know. You know, it's just it depends on the individual. Yeah.

Paul Yeager: All right. Well, let's talk about the other direction. Bradley in Nebraska wants to know about the dollar. How much lower can this U.S. dollar go?

Jeff French: I think it could go significantly lower. I think the longer this trade war, plays out specifically with China. I think it could move significantly lower. I mean, we're taking out some major levels that we haven't taken out in the last 3 to 4 years. And we close below that psychological support number of 100. We're down here at 99 now. So yeah, I think, you know, time will tell. But, you look at the technicals in the chart, it looks like we could go 92 pretty easily.

Paul Yeager: Is there any movement that you're seeing globally about using the US dollar or seeing this as a good thing for other countries?

Jeff French: Yeah, I mean, but there's just so much uncertainty with how these trade deals are going to get done. I mean, they're you know, it's going to take a long time when they're doing each country individually. But maybe there'll be some package deals. We'll just have to tell. But the market does not like uncertainty. Now, we've gotten some clarity here. The last week or so. But that volatility, when you know the trade, you know, the tariffs are being announced and every country had a different amount. That was the market did not like that one bit. So we'll just have to see.

Paul Yeager: Oh the market's one thing, farmers another. And the Mizzou Tiger MT wanted to know on tax if I get more government relief dollars, is it going to be tied to acres or bushels. Now that's an if. But any whispers out there.

Jeff French: I have not heard of specifically. But I think the last time they did it, they did it on the acres planted. But you know, we'll just have to see. But yeah, there's been some rumblings that, you know, Trump is going to take care of the farmers, and I'm sure he will. But, how specifically that comes out, I don't have any specifics on that.

Paul Yeager: Okay. Let's go to Gary in Wisconsin. If we could, with an increase in nitrogen, is corn acres or yield more likely impacted?

Jeff French: You know, I think it's depends on where you're at in the country. You know, there's always talk of, you know, cutting back inputs, because of high prices. And I'm sure it does happen in places. But I just don't see that, you know, do you look at the I it's in the corn belt. I just don't see it. Personally, I think, you know, guys are going to be even more apt to do it to grow themselves to profitability. I mean, that's just what I. That's my opinion. It's an.

Paul Yeager: Old playbook. It's happened before.

Jeff French: Absolutely.

Paul Yeager: And you don't hear, though, anybody saying, cancel my order. I don't need it.

Jeff French: Exactly right. They like to talk about it, but talk is cheap.

Paul Yeager: What's the biggest conversation topic in the office? This week? What are you hearing?

Jeff French: Well, right now it was quiet. Number one. You know the corn market being market kind of stalled. And then producers were in the field. I mean, if you're a farmer, you were you were farming this week. And depending on where you're at. But, you know, in Iowa, soil conditions were pretty ideal. And, you know, they were just busy. So unless specifically, I need to get them, I let them go to work.

Paul Yeager: So knowing that next week, I'll be back. What do I is there something I need to do Monday to kind of ease my mind for the coming week on any one of these wheat, corn, beans?

Jeff French: No, I think Monday, you know, you look at Monday, the most of the world Monday is shut down. I mean, we have a big obviously Easter weekend. So Monday should be relatively quiet. I mean, we'll see. But, Washington DC, Washington, D.C. will kind of dictate that. And yeah, I mean, we're just watching the headlines and then the Trump tweets.

Paul Yeager: I want to go back to soybeans. One thing I didn't quite get wrapped up, there's been fighting. I asked you about a technical thing and feeders, but beans again it's back to trade a little bit on some of the headlines, but is there any technical action going on? I think the 200 moving day average was kind of a story there for a little bit on this. Can the soybean market just shove away to the side the tariff talk for its movement?

Jeff French: Yeah, I think it can. I think it has to get into what's bigger than the tariff talk that's going to be, you know, the weather this season, this summer. And again, you know, the acres are going to be low in the beans of the intentions. I mean, we'll see here in the next, you know, by June 30th what the actual planted acres are, but, you know, the beans had a big snap back rally. Now it's going to get into more difficult areas. You got July right up here against 1050. You got new crop at 1030. So we've had a nice rebound rally. Now we're going to have to probably see some of these deals actually get done. That's what it feels like. We're kind of pausing here, to potentially maybe take our next leg higher on some announcements made next week. So we'll see if those come.

Paul Yeager: All right. Good luck finding all the eggs this weekend. Are you hiding? Are you the hider?

Jeff French: I help out where I can.

Paul Yeager: Be careful of the ones in your shoe. All right, all right. Jeff, good to see you.

Jeff French: Thank you. Paul.

Paul Yeager: Jeff French, everyone, a reminder. We want you to get signed up for that Market to Market insider newsletter. It is free. Sign up at Market to Market dot org. Next week, farmers navigate changes in labor policy and we'll have the commodity market analysis with Ted Seifried. Thanks for joining us. Have a great week.

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