Black Sea and European insight for U.S. farmers - Matt Ammermann

Hi everyone. I'm Paul Yeager. This is the MToM Show podcast, a production of Iowa PBS and the Market to Market TV Show. To begin 2024, there were a lot of protests of farmers in Europe. Why? Why did they bring their tractors to capital cities? Why did they bring manure to throw into this protest? And what kind of an effect did that have on the European farmer? And did the American farmer see what's happening and get inspired to feel sympathetic? Or is there just more that we need to know about what's going on with them, and it goes back to the word green, how the green agenda made for a very interesting year with many farmers. On the other side of the ocean, we'll also further stitch together what's happening in Russia and Ukraine, how production has gone up, and what exactly that means for the rest of the world when it comes to the products made in those two countries. Matt Ammermann from StoneX, he is an expert in Eastern Europe, in the Black Sea region, so we figured he'd be a good one to have this conversation with. And yes, StoneX has become, as I'll say, here in just a moment, very regular on this program as we fold in another person and their insight from this large company. So we're going to talk about Europe, the green agenda and the American farmer. Now, on the podcast, StoneX has like become our second sponsor, it seems like on the show, we get Mark Gold, we get Arlan Suderman. We've had Josh Linnville on. Have you ever figured out how so many people are now your co-workers?

Matt Ammermann: I'm surprised daily by the increasing number on that. Which is a good thing, though, right?

[Yeager]  Has it allowed you to be able to focus more on a very specific thing, since there's somebody else that might do what you used to kind of have to do on the side?

[Ammermann]  A little bit, you'd say, especially like with Arlan's team, the market intelligence side of StoneX, he's really done a really good job of picking that up and really feeling like I'm on the risk management side. So I would be inquiring about his team to create some documents or research information. So yeah, it helps, it helps the big picture for sure.

[Yeager]  Tell me exactly what risk management then means forced in StoneX terms.

[Ammermann]  Sure. In StoneX terms, we're here really to help manage price risk, whether it's the farmer for this audience, the farmer directly, we all know, they're always long a commodity, whether it's current, next year, two years in the future, there's always they always have price risk. So we have strategies that we can implement to help manage that downside. price risk that a farmer takes. 

[Yeager]  Whereas Arlan is gathering intelligence to help you make better decisions for I'm guessing, are they called clients? Is that what you have?

[Ammermann]  Exactly. So a client would be in this term of say, a farmer goes from an elevator to a trader to importer, a flour mill, or basically anybody in the whole value chain that accepts price risk. That's where we would step in and do some sort of strategy to help manage that risk. So yes, Arlan's team helps feed market information, studies reports like that to us as well. 

[Yeager]  I'm always fascinated how these companies are structured and how things go and how there's, I know, there's supposed to be separation and delineation. And there's walls, and there's, you know, there's some fire gaps to keep people separate. Right? 

[Ammermann]  Right. I think in today's regulatory world, yes. I'm supposed to say yes, yeah. But it also helps just everyone to be more efficient, kind of like you're seeing as well.

[Yeager]  Now with Josh Linnville. I've talked to him very specifically about fertilizer. I'm talking to you today about two specific areas. How did you get interested or pick up this specialty of Eastern Europe? And the Black Sea region?

[Ammermann]  Yeah, so I grew up on a farm in west central Minnesota. You would say a lot of the commodity brokers are risk management consultants at StoneX, at least on the agricultural side, we typically come from a farm. I think that kind of makes sense. We understand what the growing season entails and stuff like that. So definitely still next appealed to me for that reason at that time, it was, I believe, FC Stone. We've been through a few changes, but that time was FC Stone. And, yeah, so farm kid started here doing that. And then, to me, an opportunity came in the Black Sea market, kind of jumped on it and have not looked back since. And that was like almost 17 years ago. So definitely a lot of changes. Not only market wise, but also in the Black Sea. It's just like, incredible.

[Yeager]  What part of West Central Minnesota and what Lake is considered your home like then?

[Ammermann]  Home lake would be Yeah, so I actually grew up in Chippewa County, which came the Ohio County is the county of like, lakes in Minnesota. So if you've heard of like Lake Florida, or Green Lake by Willmar, Minnesota, that's like, the lake,

[Yeager]  I know the area, I know exactly where you're talking about. Yes. That's good. So then what do you get then consider your home lake then.

[Ammermann]  Home lake? Green Lake, like that's where my grandpa and grandma actually have a cabin on Green. 

[Yeager]  Like is there anybody still on the farm? There?

[Ammermann]  There is. Yeah. So my dad actually just retired this year. My brother has taken it over. So that transition is going on. But yeah, he's still still doing it. So it's good.

[Yeager]  Did you ever have any thoughts of joining the family?

[Ammermann]  I would say this job that I'm doing is as close as it gets to maybe farming. So I think that's as close as I've got. definitely times where I'm like, should I be a farmer. But I think now I'm good at where I'm at right now. It's nice that my brother's taking it over. So I can still kind of go see it, and participate whenever I want, without maybe the hard work of it. So maybe the best of both worlds.

[Yeager]  Your work is different. Your hard work is different in I mean, you have to sit there and you're trying to parse information coming out of a region. And then he's kind of like the I won't call it the incubator, but the test area of you can kind of see how your thought plays out with what he's doing.

[Ammermann]  Exactly, exactly. Yeah, sometimes the voice of reason sometimes comes in for sure. Because farmers always are like, right, to the point. Blunt, which is good.

[Yeager]  Bluntly, speaking, Black Sea has been full of news the last three years how again, did you make that connection from farm to learning to being so involved in this arena?

[Ammermann]  Yeah, I think it just takes to kind of gain that initial respect of market players and those involved in the market. They can decipher it much like a farmer. I think that for this audience, you can decipher maybe like, a city kid very quickly from a non-city kid. Not that that's bad or not. But if you just have the experience of farming, I think that just speaks and how did you get the experience of it? It just? Yeah, I think when you look at the similarities between the Black Sea and think the Upper Midwest, Iowa, Minnesota, Dakotas, it's very similar climate wise, growing wise, like Ukraine has a good amount of sugar beet grown as well, which that's my dad and brother grow sugar beets. So a lot of just, I think the same similarities, it's just different timezone. Which kind of brings a nice benefit. And one nice thing is I think StoneX was open. And we were a huge global firm. So it kind of fits into the business of stone works very well.

[Yeager]  You mentioned geography is the same. I mean, you're almost like the same parallel from where you're at Minnesota. So I mean, there's that understanding the weather. And I think that was like the first connection that maybe farmers who hadn't traveled or familiar with Ukraine of just how similar it is to the, you know, the Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin Dakota type area. So when it struck, and we, we still had grain in the fields, or we had crops in the bins, and then you hear Russia, taking over all these things, and then shutting off access to ship and then Russia just kind of, for lack of a better term commandeers the grain for their own is what we see if I summarized it pretty accurately, and what we've seen the last three years.

[Ammermann]  Yeah, I mean, pretty accurately, I think my biggest takeaway is how resilient the Ukraine farmer has been in the midst of what's been going on, but also the Russian farmer, like they're equally kind of, I think, removed from the political aspect of it. But to me, number one, Ukraine, they just continue to operate, they're not going on their third year, which I think if you throw three horrible years at a US farmer, they might, they might fold right, there might be a lot that fold and just they can't do it. But Ukraine is now going on their third year. They have a good mix of more winter crops as well as spring crops. So they kind of have that. Maybe call it diversification a little bit but not not too much. Yeah, to me, the biggest thing that just stands out is just how resilient they figure it out. They don't have the collateral they don't have the insurance schemes that the US has. They are operating with virtually no insurance, no collateral, which boggles my mind even more, that they're able to make it through these hard times. but they are. They're not doing very well, this year, the third year or third year around prices aren't the best. They had the UN corridor setup, it was working well for a while Russia stepped out, then their exports hurt. But now they stepped in, they figured it out the military of Ukraine kind of helped back it. And now they're actually exporting more than what they were even pre war. So again, it's one of those things that a market economics, they always find a way to get it done. And I would just say over the past three years, Ukraine farmers are very rapid in finding a solution, whether it's going to the different ports in the Danube, or finding roads and trains to get it out, or finally doing the port themselves. So it's good on that side. Then even on the Russian side, Russian farmers, you know, they have a lot of sanctions in place. But they still, I would say they're still able to get it done as well. There is a bit of land in there where it's in occupied regions. USDA, I think, is still questioning, what are we going to do with this data? Obviously, Russia is more like we'll count it. So that's obviously a huge debate on the numbers side. But both sides, both farmers are finding ways just to still kind of get it done in very simple terms.

[Yeager]  And those farmers aren't a part of what's going on above them both literally and figuratively. And so they're trying to operate with. You've mentioned, there's really no safety net for them. They are operating without a net even more. So now. They've just like, let's just say instead of being two stories off the ground, they're more like 20 stories off the ground trying to operate.

[Ammermann]  Exactly. So you would say for them, when prices are really good. It's really good for them. You know, they have the big swings. Yep. And when prices are horrible, it's like even worse for them. So to your point, yes.

[Yeager]  Manic, you would call it when we, whether it's Arlan or whoever comes on to market to market and talks about the wheat market or any analysts that I read, it's always this this amount of of wheat that is coming, and soybeans and whatever the grain is coming from this region is flooding the market, lowering the price. Or they're not producing more than they used to. Where did this happen? Why does it seem like this is a bigger story now because so much of this is on the market?

[Ammermann]  Right? Well, first off, I think on the export side, they are producing more. Russia last year producer record crop. USDA, I believe still is at 94, 99.2, 94 million ton. Privates are at 104. So that's last year that's fed now into new crop, like the current marketing year in Russia. So that's fed export record export levels out of Russia. Ukraine, not so much but they're still exporting near record amount was bigger than pre war. So to your point, yeah, there was a point where Ukraine could not export anything because the corridor was closed. Maybe they're having some issues at the ports. So they found roads or other ports to go to. Yes, that brought increased supply. But the argument is, is that easiest way to put it into Ukraine, wheat is much like SRW Chicago wheat. Most of Europe is like HRW. Russian wheat is HRW. So, Ukraine, wheat is typically a little lower quality. So they're always going to feed to specific Middle East Northern African markets, as well as Portugal and Spain. The EU really doesn't compete with Ukraine, even in a normal market. It's just that they were using transit through Europe to kind of get there. Combine that with a lower price environment, because if you could just go look at a price of Chicago wheat, for example. Prices are now below pre war. So of course, a farmer when prices are lower. They always like high prices. So when prices were lower, more from the European perspective, they see all this product coming in from Ukraine, even though it's not influencing their market directly. They know it's low prices, and they find an excuse to blame the product coming in from Ukraine. So to me, it's more the narrative, the bigger picture of overall lower prices. Therefore, let's find a reason to argue and try to get more support.

[Yeager]  Is there any WTO  options for anybody to argue unfair trade practices?

[Ammermann]  I'm sure there are some there. But I think at the end of the day, they're not really there because they're not really competing with each other. Like, I'm sure there's some small amounts that are still competing, but from a big zoom out perspective, they're still not essentially competing. is different than what it was pre war. I mean, even beyond it a little bit, if you see all the tractors and stuff like that from going to Brussels in France and Germany everywhere across the EU, that was also in regards to the fourth to food argument in Europe where they're pushing, let's say the the green agenda, where they're going to lower the pesticides, lower fertilizer usage, increased fallow land. So the government officials were trying to also push a green agenda very quickly, in the midst of lower prices, that pushes an angry farmer, because if you push a green agenda that comes at a cost, when prices are already low, it equates to not a fun situation, which I'm sure everybody saw. So like the majority of the EU protests that you saw, it was a combination of, well, this product is coming from Ukraine, we have this green agenda. That's trying to get some additional help. From an EU perspective.

[Yeager]  So the two are tied together.

[Ammermann]  Yes, the two are tied. 

[Yeager]  We're gonna go back to Europe in a minute. I want to button up one last thing on the Ukraine. I thought you were going to say what the Ukrainian and the Russians are doing when the price is low? If they are doing the American Way is let's just produce more because we need to compensate for the lower prices there for oversupply lowers the price.

[Ammermann]  At some point, yes, that occurs. But I think at least Russia, Ukraine are financially in the position where they can't really step out and do that much different practices, the only slight differences, they're making a switch to more oil seeds, especially in Ukraine. Ukraine has soil Okay, exactly like think Minnesota, Dakotas, parts of Iowa, they're set up to crush Sun seeds, so they favor Sun seed production, they're increasing soybean seed production a little bit. So that's maybe the slight adjustment they can do from a low price environment perspective. But overall, farmers are, let's be honest creatures of habit, they're used to kind of doing a certain rotation. So they can't really step out and change really drastically that way.

[Yeager]  That's what I was gonna ask the next was, what is the change? Is there anything different? Is wheat being planted? Because as what we know or be? Yeah, if we lose it, we don't lose as much as if we put a more valuable, profitable crop in the ground?

[Ammermann]  Yeah, I think there's some of that. And like I said, more and more switches to oil seed a little bit. One big switch, if I were to go against zoom out, the ethanol era in the US pushed, in my opinion, Ukraine to plant more corn, soy corn is definitely that, much like in the US how it can yield profitability much quicker than soybeans or other products. The same thing happens in Ukraine. So but again, they're they're they're, they're stuck to that rotation factor. So it's not that corn on corn and corn on corn that you might see in the US as much in Ukraine. But yeah, but beyond adjusting, those are really the only factors that they can really do besides putting the seed in the ground and hoping that they get a good crop and somewhere else in the world as a weather scare and makes prices go up.

[Yeager]  Sounds familiar? I think I've heard that before. Matt, let's continue that zoom out. Earlier this year, we had stories on our air, about protests in Brussels, all these European roads with tractors coming from wherever it was. First it was just one country, then it became 234. Give me the high level first, and then let's dive in.

[Ammermann]  Yeah, so the high level again, it just gets back to a green agenda. Like you had government officials saying we're going to restrict you as a farmer, whether it's what you plant where you plant, what fertilizer, what amount of fertilizer, pesticides, different permits, livestock, there were restrictions on increased land to put fallow to increase the potential of less pollution, etc. And I think the green agenda in Europe has probably been more prevalent than in the US. So I think it's kind of been pending there for a while. And again, I think it just got to a point where you combine inflow of product coming from Ukraine, lower prices, and the farmer kind of erupted. I would say that the European farmer, I mean, from from basic perspective, it kind of seems like they know how to protest with how they kind of bring all the tractors together and manure spreaders and just all that it's just incredible to kind of see the way they they protest and well,

[Yeager]  the autobahn. I mean the Autobahn always they move quickly. They're used to high speed on their interstate system for lack of a better term interstate, I know is not the right term. When you bring a big old tractor onto the highway, it slows things down. And the manure is plentiful. And it certainly if you're not used to it, if you go back to what you said, not from the farm, that smell is very pungent. And do you think that it was a successful series of protests?

[Ammermann]  I think it was, it seems like they kind of backed off and said, Okay, fine, we'll kick the can down the road a little bit. We won't deal with this specifically right now. But I think it's just, it's something that I think farmers realize, like we have to do something with the way we're doing things. But I think just that whole narrative globally is okay. And we're even having it in the US. So I think overall, yeah, I think it was successful. If they did nothing, I'm sure we'd be looking at a much different situation. So it kind of seems like that they win, maybe short term, but long term, I think, again, they just they just kind of know that, hey, we got to change eventually or to adapt some changes down the road.

[Yeager]  Is this green agenda more of a European Union thing? Or is it country by country just adopting the same type of copy paste, copy paste? rules, policies that these countries want to put in place?

[Ammermann]  Yeah, I think it's more European thing. Now, I would I don't know the exact specifics, but I'm going to assume that it is kind of a copy paste that once one nation like France does it, well, then maybe Germany will do the same thing, etc, etc. But yeah, Brussels is kind of the one that kind of drives the ship in that, that I'm sure most government officials if something happens, I'm sure everyone will have to kind of adapt, adapt to the changes that are made. 

[Yeager]  I also Spain, Portugal, I mean, I think they were in this too. They have their own sets, but they are removed from some of these other areas. How's the connection between all of these countries? Because a farmer in one country seems you would think it is dramatically different. But you're making it sound like they're a little more similar and thinking?

[Ammermann]  Yeah, yeah, I think I think at the core of it, yes. They operate independently. So think like how US states? I mean, we can operate independently, but we can't again, I'm no government official, I still am confused sometimes how the US tax rates. But yeah, so the European Union is is more or less the same? Again, I think, just from a basic perspective, yeah, they're all going to follow each other. There might be a few year lag difference there. But yeah, I agree with you, Spain, Portugal, we're in the mix of that as well. It's kind of one of those things. Once one nation, when one country starts, it kind of catches fire. That definitely what happened with these farmer protests. Maybe also just thinking about it off the top of my head. It was winter. They weren't in the field yet. So maybe they, you know, realize we have some free time a little bit. And now that they have to get back to work more legitly. Maybe that also calmed down the actions a little bit too.

[Yeager]  Are we to a point where we can see tractors roll into St. Paul or Des Moines or Washington DC with American farmers seeing what their European farmer has done?

[Ammermann]  This time of year, I would say. Maybe never because us equipment is just way bigger, probably wouldn't even fit down. Most of these smaller streets.

[Yeager]  it already is slowing down and Willmar or tanah or Plymouth or wherever if a tractor rolls through at the wrong time. That's enough of a protest right there. Whether they were intending to do it or not.

[Ammermann]  

Yes, yes, exactly. Exactly.

[Yeager]  Just the American farmer though. Can they sympathize with what the European you talked about? You know, the green agenda there that's always kind of a buzzword in the United States that many farmers? Don't they feel like they are being pressured in a direction they don't want to go. Is there sympathy that can be had by the American farmer to the European?

[Ammermann]  Oh, I think I think there for sure is Yeah, I would say at least again, my knowledge of US farmers, it seems like the younger generation is maybe more aware that like, hey, maybe we can or maybe we should do this or that because maybe they realize some of these practices do need to change. Yeah, it's a little bit of a tough question, because I think change is always tough. Unless you're rewarded for change, it's even harder to change. So yeah, I think there's maybe some sympathy I think, you know, US farmers are always looking for the most efficient way, especially with these margins, these prices. They're looking at the most efficient way to get really the best money for what they're doing. So maybe, yeah, maybe maybe just more time more information. People realize that maybe, maybe these green agendas have a fit, but just maybe not as they currently are set up right now.

[Yeager]  However, the American farmer does pay attention to what Europe is doing, and they will see some type of regulation that has passed and has been implemented. And they want nothing to do with it. Right? That hasn't changed.

[Ammermann]  No, that hasn't changed, either. And unless it really finds a direct benefit to us farmers, why would they do it? That's kind of the old old way of, of saying, right.

[Yeager]  And as we have global companies that have addresses that aren't in the United States, they might be European based, they might be Chinese based, they might be Brazilian based, where their rules are going to carry over a little different. And their implementation might happen- is we have a global agriculture economy. Do you see that playing a role in how some country might not have as much of a choice in this as they think?

[Ammermann]  Yeah, yeah, I would say overall, the market, the world is definitely getting smaller, year by year. Yeah, what happens in the US might actually be led by another nation, I won't mention a specific nation. But yes, fully agree, it's going to eventually evolve to a very small, small world, I still would say there might be that separation, where if I, again, zoom out, Ukraine has a lot of big farmers that are vertically integrated. They're publicly traded, they have anywhere from 50 to 100, 200, 400,000 hectares, not acres hectares, those might be easier to adapt and take those policies. Europe, not so much, you have very small farmers in the US kind of the same thing overall, in general, you have small individual family farms that I think aren't going to be governed by big corporate, if that makes sense. I think some of the majors in the US might be the driving force, which, okay, if they're getting pressure internationally, that maybe some international buyer can only buy based upon the specifics, they might flow it back to the farmer saying, Okay, now we can only buy from you if X, Y and Z implementation of that, I think is it's going to take time. Even just tracking, you know, if an ethanol plant desires it to be a no till piece of land for them to buy the corn to create the ethanol, you know, the tracking of that, I think is going to be maybe the biggest leap to get done. But, again, if there's a reward for the farmer, they probably slowly adapt. 

[Yeager]  This was not in what I was going to talk about. But you bring up a point of interest in the show a couple of weeks ago, discussing, the US trade rep was in front of Congress and was asked about why aren't we doing trade deals with basically Great Britain? And a lot in Europe? What do you know anything about that? And to answer that, does that play into anything that you've just talked about?

[Ammermann]  I didn't listen to the specific thing that you're talking about. But I know like, okay, a trade deal to to Europe, one of the bigger things that Europe is kind of always restricting a little bit is the GMO genes and the GMO function of the product produced in the US. So I think that's maybe one of the biggest kind of issues right now. That would just maybe be the biggest thing from an EU perspective. But otherwise, yeah, we export, I mean, I'm sure you're well aware of, basically, any market in the world that you can export to, it's just that maybe the ones that desire at the most, at the cheapest price buy the most.

[Yeager]  Well, we'll send an American product wherever we can. I mean, that's what the policy has become, because I need to move whether it is the ethanol or the soybean or the crush or the bean or whatever it is. pork loins, let's ship it somewhere. And global trade is complicated. So I guess let's tie it back to your job, then on a day to day basis. How much does trade ever play into understanding these issues of the Black Sea or in Europe? In handling risk for a producer?

[Ammermann]  Yeah, it's big. I think we all know that almost one of the first things everybody looks at when they wake up is did something geopolitically happen? Right now that's outside of the Black Sea, but prior to maybe two months ago, it was always the Black Sea. It still is. I think, more specifically, now that the US aid got passed. I think it brings focus right back to Ukraine, again, because the majority of that aid is going to Ukraine. So yeah, to me that's a huge, huge part of it. All these geopolitical tensions, just other supply factors, are weather based risk. To me, that's the biggest risk moving forward for this upcoming years. Weather and geopolitics. 

[Yeager]  So let's take the deal that lets take the geopolitics for a moment. In six months, there's a deal. Not saying it would happen in Russia and Ukraine, we determined something has happened. How big of an impact is that?

[Ammermann]  Yeah, that's a great question. I think it would be a big impact. You would have more investment, I think fleeing to Ukraine to get them back on their feet very, very quickly. Whether there's no deal or deal, I think Ukraine and Russia both continue to export to the max. They, at least as it looks right now, production looks to be fully fine. between Russia, Ukraine, they're probably exporting the same amount, if not more for 2425. So the influence of the Black Sea is not going away anytime soon. But if there is a deal, yeah, it probably pushes. more efficiency, more competitiveness, probably cheaper prices from the Black Sea. So ultimately, it probably pushes up more of a bearish trend, because you'd have more production potential in the Black Sea. Yeah, so I think, again, it's hard to say, you know, a deal of what define a deal. I think both sides are pretty set in their ways right now. So who knows what a deal looks like in today's world. But yeah, if it were to get done, I tend to think it's more of a bearish influence on prices than anything.

[Yeager]  And then once you repair those docks and export locations, it might further bring in some of that bearish sentiment that you're referring to.

[Ammermann]  Exactly, because then all of a sudden, it should bring better hopefully better profitability, more efficiencies, and better access to all the technologies see fertilizer, diesel, everything that the farmers have been scrapping to get. It would be easier to kind of produce but yeah, now prices that's the other function probably doesn't guarantee profitability is gonna go higher. But I think just the supply function would definitely be there. And

[Yeager]  the European let's button that one up. French President Macron is finishing out a term. There will be a change in France, not saying France is the only country that sets a lot of policy, but they certainly have a lot of influence in Europe. When it comes to agriculture. Do we see a change there having any reduction next January, February? Do we see less tractors going to protest?

[Ammermann] Yeah, honestly, I don't follow French politics a great deal. But I would say if this green agenda, they kicked it down the road, it's going to continue to come up. And my guess is if lower prices are still in the environment, which it tends to look like that assuming normal weather. Yeah, protests will be back in this lower environment. Nobody wants to really adapt to those changes. But then you go down the line of if we're in a higher price environment, will officials want to make those changes? They probably won't, because they want to do everything possible to make the most production. So it's kind of that equal opposite. It seems like the only time this argument comes up was when we have lower prices. So politicians can maybe think about doing it. And I would say overall, okay, in the US, it seems like politics, change takes a while to actually get implemented. For example, like looking at biofuel policies in the US, they just continue to get changed, etc, etc. So, I mean, yeah, maybe maybe next year, there's protests but actual change. I think it's an ongoing debate.

[Yeager]  And this is an ongoing conversation that we can have again, and things might change in six months, man. Exactly. Oh, man, I appreciate the insight. Thank you for helping fill in some gaps that some of us may have and give us something to think about. I appreciate it.

[Ammermann]  All right. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you.

[Yeager]  If you have any feedback for me, hit me up in an email MarkettoMarket@IowaPBS.org. New episodes come out each and every Tuesday. We'll see you next time. Bye bye.