Renewable Fuels Industry Matures, Eyes Measured Growth Ahead - Paul Nees

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[Yeager] Hi everyone. I'm Paul Yeager. This is the MToM podcast, a production of the Market to Market TV show, which is based at Iowa PBS. Meaning we are at the center of corn and soybean country. We're going to be talking a lot about the soybean today. Yes. Harvest is pretty much done, but that doesn't mean the demand, the crush, the future of the bean is finished.

In fact, it might just be beginning. We're going to find out today what is the future and the outlook for biodiesel and specifically renewable fuels. As we talk with a legacy oil company that has now acquired, Renewable Energy Group. Chevron, Meet Renewable Energy Group, they are together now. And Paul Nees is the VP of Global global supply trading. Global supply trading has a very big wide sounding topic and it is so Paul is going to fill us in about where some of the future demand might come from, where the production and what the outlook is for the industry in this installment of the podcast. By the way, this is a look at the 2025 calendar. I say that to you because some cool things are going to be coming your way in 2025. So stay tuned. If you want to know what is coming when, subscribe to the Market Insider newsletter, which can be found on our website of market to market. Uh.org sign up. So you know the insider information about this podcast. We always preview it the day before and you'll know before anybody else. And then you can just know, yeah, I want to make sure I listen to that. Thank you for subscribing. Now let's talk to Paul. Nees. Paul, it's quite a year to be a cyclone. You, can you contain your excitement? Do you look around and go. No, seriously, when's the other shoe going to drop? That's what the cyclone fans tell me.

[Nees] Yes. Yeah. Of course, being an Iowa State graduate and living here in Ames, it's awesome to have a great football team to cheer for. And, you know, cyclone fans are always a little bit nervous about what's next. But of course, just want to enjoy the ride with our attitude.

[Yeager] Well, the game against Central Florida was quite a ride. That was one thing.

[Nees] Yes it was. Yeah. I was pretty excited to see him come back. Despite some of the challenges during the game. It was a fun outing. Being in Ames means you're in the center of Iowa, in the center of a whole lot of research and a lot of agriculture. And Chevron is been located there for a little while. When did Chevron first put stakes down in Ames? Yeah, we actually started the business in a small town called Ralston, Iowa, kind of near Carroll. And it's been about, about 18 years ago, we moved the company to Ames, kind of outgrew our space there in Ralston and felt the need to move to Ames here. And so we've been situated here, ever since. And so it's been a really good, area. Of course, we have, a lot of good partners in the area, including the university, to do research with. And it's been a great community to build a business.

[Yeager] And I think I asked one of your old bosses last year about the connection between Chevron, a traditionally oil based company with renewables and how the two came together. How do you see that partnership and how it developed?

[Nees] Yeah, it's been really great. You didn't know what to expect at first when the announcement, came out and, you know, Chevron's been a really, great owner of this company. And over the last two plus years, we've been able to make sure we're aligned on goals and strategy and really grow the business in a way that we probably couldn't have if we were still, on our own. And so having access to a larger set of resources, a stronger balance sheet, allowed us to do things that, you know, we weren't able to, to grow, quick enough, as a standalone company. So, a lot of great people within Chevron and, a lot of smart people. And we've been really fortunate to have good partners to help grow the renewables business with.

[Yeager] Paul, I'm going to make a tiny bit of a jump here that you and I are fairly close in age, but when I remember going to college, renewable fuels was not quite something. That was widespread. So how did you get, from a guy at Iowa State to where you're at today?

[Nees] Yeah. You know, I grew up on a family farm, over near Carroll, and spent a few years, in the kind of soy crush, merchandizing business and a little bit of risk management. And really, I always had desire to find a career and value added agriculture. And, this opportunity came up to join a biodiesel company. And to be honest with you, I really didn't know much about what it was. But I really like the concept of trying to find new and innovative ways to add value to the products that farmers produce, every day. And so, I've actually joined the company 20 years ago. I was kind of there when the company started and, had a really fun career along the way. So, have had many different roles within the company, in charge of things like logistics, and trading, buying feedstocks, risk management, supply chain optimization. So I had a lot of, of fun as the company has grown, from the small start that we had to eventually becoming a publicly traded company, later on being acquired by Chevron and now continue to grow. You know, in the last couple of years since then, too, as part of the larger Chevron organization. So it's always been fun and challenging to, you know, see the industry grow, see our business grow, and, you know, just attack the new challenges that we have. Every year.

[Yeager] What do you think has led to the growth the most?

[Nees] Well, we're, industry that, I think provides a lot of things that the public needs around energy independence. Cleaner, lower carbon fuels and really, providing additional value to farmers. And so we've seen a lot of, policy that has helped us grow both on a state level and on a federal level that has led to the growth that we've seen. And so, you know, there's been some ups and downs. It hasn't been a straight up type of, trend. But over time, we've kind of weathered to some different storms and we're stronger than we've been before. It doesn't mean there's not more challenges in front of us, but there's certainly a place in this market for renewable fuels. And we're a leader in that spot. So we really like where we're at.

[Yeager] Policy and incentives have helped. There's always that pushback of, okay, what point are you going to be able to run on your own? You're probably the closest you've ever been to being an industry that's self-sufficient.

[Nees] Yeah. That's right. You know, you need policy to get new things started. And, certainly that's been the case that, you know, policy has helped the industry grow in a way that wouldn't have, without support of policy. But yes, we've come a long ways and, yes, there's still policy in place that supports that. There's a lot of, people it's due to the benefits of biodiesel and renewable diesel, and the policy can work different, and can come in forms of tax incentives. Usage requirements. But all of it's been supported to grow our industry, and it's still pretty critical for our future growth as well.

[Yeager] Oh, and one of the big news has always been here in the last couple of years has been this, hey, you know what we think the sustainable aviation fuel and and biodiesel. And we think this can lead. When you see a headline, that headline like that, what goes through your mind.

[Nees] Yeah. It's exciting. The you know, it's gone from being this kind of small niche, fuel, part of the industry that was really disregarded by, many folks and really become more, got a lot more attention, as well. It should you know, we've done a lot to, add value, for the crops that farmers drove for the animal byproducts that we use, that go into, biodiesel, and renewable diesel. So it's become an important part of the total overall demand for agricultural products as well as making a significant, impact on lowering the carbon of fuels that we consume here. In the United States, state of California, is up to, I think 75% of its fuel will be diesel fuels, not all renewable content. So, we're making meaningful progress in a lot of different areas because of the support that we've had.

[Yeager] And that doesn't happen overnight. That takes years to get to get the I guess let's use the but we'll use the plane metaphors. You got gotta it's a long way to take off before the thing gets airborne. And do you find encouragement? Is there an acceptability? Is it the industry's have to buy in? Who has to lead the acceptability side to make financial sense for a company to dive into, hypothetically, not necessarily specific to Chevron?

[Nees] Yeah, I think we've had really good, support. Again, it starts with policy. We've had great champions here in the U.S for, Senator Grassley is certainly the leader. But many other, state legislators, from the state of Iowa and other Midwest states have really, helped us with, getting policy that supported our markets and really, we see also good demand pool. We see customers that really see a need to lower the carbon intensity of their operations. And there's limited ways to do that. Battery electric vehicles are great, but they're gonna have hard time making headways into some of the heavy duty sectors that we serve over the road. Trucking, mining, aviation, marine. Those sectors are going to have a hard time, coming with battery, battery electric solutions are really going to serve those industries well. So we provide a solution that could help them decarbonize their fuel fleets. And it's available now. It's not some technology that's ten years away. It's available today. And so we see a really good, good demand pull from these companies that are wanting to do something about lowering their, carbon footprints. And, you know, they're, they're really reaching out and looking for those types of solutions that we offer.

[Yeager] Who was the biggest breakthrough in understanding the potential of the soybean in this discussion?

[Nees] That's a good question. I think there's been a lot of, you know, people, of course, I, I to be honest, we we built our first biodiesel plant in Ralston, Iowa. It was a 12 million gallon a year plant when the total size of the entire industry in the United States was less than 12 million gallons. And so certainly we've come a long ways since then, but it took some people that wanted to, you know, put some money on the line and make some investments, even though the sure thing wasn't there. And so that was early on. There's been multiple people along the way that have, really stepped out and been leaders in the industry, both in the commercial and business side as well on the policy and government side. So I mentioned Charles Grassley as the senator from Iowa is one that I'd probably point to as one of the best leaders from the political standpoint, has done a lot to really help, provide support of policy and, and grow this, industry in the state of Iowa.

[Yeager] Yeah, I think he gets a there's a name for him sometimes a nickname. Father, father ethanol or father renewable fuel. There's some term like that, right? You've heard that you're smiling like you mean.

[Nees] Yeah, I call him one of the grandfathers of biofuels, for sure. He's certainly been a champion for us. And like I said, there's many others, as well, but he's one that's been doing it for a long time and has always been one of our champions.

[Yeager] Near you, in Ames was a facility that was, not yours, but it was on feedstocks, and, that was also seen as an opportunity for generating fuel. Where are you at in feedstock discussion now, or is it pretty much strictly biodiesel? Is it where you're hanging your hat.

[Nees] Yeah. So we've grown the business. And which means we need more and more feedstocks. And so the feedstocks we use is a wide range of different types. We buy soybean oil, canola oil, all different types, from animal fats, from swine and beef and poultry operations. We buy a lot of used cooking oil from restaurants. And, we buy a lot of corn oil, which is a byproduct from the ethanol process. So, recently we have made it a, investment to form a joint venture with buggy. And so we have some, vertical integration into two soybean crush plans to provide soybean oil to our network. But beyond that, we primarily source our feedstock from the rest of market providers that are out there. And so we require much more feedstock than we can produce ourselves. So we rely on good partners in the industry to, produce those feedstocks. And, we source from all different places across the country and across the world.

[Yeager] Demand is good for the soybean farmer, and the corn farmer. And they need it right now. Do you feel that you're in a good position to assist in, in helping create demand?

[Nees] Absolutely. If you look at the soybean oil supply and demand data, really we've seen a decline in exports. We've seen really kind of slow, flat demand for the food industry. And so the biofuels demand has been the incremental demand that's been able to soak up this additional supply of soybean, all that's been available. And so, if the industry wasn't pulling as much soybean oil in as we were, we'd have large stocks of soybean oil, which would definitely put some downside pressure on soybean prices. So we know farm prices are low. We also see low fuel prices. So we overall just see lower margin environments in our industry, which you know, unfortunately we're seeing for farm prices as well. But we certainly are helping provide incremental demand for soybean oil, which in turn provides, additional demand and higher prices for soybean farmers.

[Yeager] Helps the soybean farmer, but it doesn't necessarily help your bottom line when you're product, when you're one of your inputs is higher. I mean, that's just the way business works.

[Nees] That's right. Yeah. And we again, we buy from all different types of feedstocks. We buy canola oil from canola farmers and processors, we buy animal fats and towels as well. So we're able to diversify our feedstock mix. And, you know, buying the tallow from the, the, the cattle processing facilities that helps provide higher values for, for beef farmers as well. So there's other ways that we provide, upstream values to those producers.

[Yeager] And when you see these facilities come online that are new crushing facilities, where is where you add in conversations with those who are building those facilities? I mean, I always hear about, you know, market research of, well, who's going to be interested if we build a whatever billion gallon plant or million gallon plant, where do you fit in that discussion?

[Nees] Yeah, we're excited to see this. Again, I talk to other my one of the reasons for getting this business is for supporting value out of their culture. And I'd love to see more investments here where we're able to process soybeans here instead of exporting that whole soybean somewhere else and create additional value here, at home in the US. So, it's been a great story because we've seen this demand signal from the renewable fuels industry that we need more soybean oil to, support growth in renewable fuels. And so we've seen many investments, going in from producers here that routing soybean crush plants. And so, we want to buy from all of them, you know, we have more demand than we can satisfy from just 1 or 2, origins. And so we want to have lots of different suppliers here because we think the demand growth overall is going to be helpful. Now, we do see, the renewable volume obligation has been set for 2025. It's open for 2026 and forward. And so it's really important for us that we see supportive policy. As we said, 2026 2027 renewable renewable volume obligation targets will help set the demand for biodiesel, which in turn will set, you know, market demand for the feedstocks. We, by including soybean oil. And so as we think about upcoming policy that's going to be negotiated in the next coming year, this is a very important, policy item for us to keep our eyes on.

[Yeager] Well, when you see RVO go, we're raising it. We're lowering it. It's not as high as we want it. It's not as you know, I mean, where are you at in that discussion? How do you fit into that? Is that another phone call to grandfather, on Capitol Hill?

[Nees] Yeah, we've been active in those discussions. What we saw previously is the EPA set a three year renewable volume obligation that covers 2023 through 2025. And, you know, we try to provide information and support of a higher volume target for biodiesel, renewable diesel in particular. And, I think the EPA underestimated our ability to produce renewable fuels. And so we are currently in a lower margin cycle in this business because we simply have more capacity and more feedstock available than the EPA had planned on. And so we see, overproduction of fuel and therefore RINs. And that's putting some downside pressure on margins. And so again, that's why it's important for us to get the next volume obligation. Correct. And so we're providing input into the EPA ourselves directly through our trade organizations and trying to show supportive information for growing the RVOs, because it's important. And we think the capacity is delivered. The industry has the capacity to deliver much more than what we have here in previous years.

[Yeager] I want to make sure I decode that. Right. Because I'm hung up on something you said at the very beginning and may have missed some of this answer in the back side. Are you saying the EPA is looking at your industry, not necessarily Chevron, but saying, we just don't think you can produce as much. Therefore the number is lower. Did I hear that right?

[Nees] Yeah. Correct. Every time the EPA sets the renewable volume obligation, they have to do an assessment of what they think the industry can deliver, and they don't want to set the target too high. And, that could cause problems as well. But we believe they set the target too low. And so what we're trying to do is provide facts and data, information around the ability for this industry to produce renewable fuels, the ability availability of feedstocks to feed these refineries, and the demand for this fuel in the industry. There's there's showing that there is, people that want this fuel. And so that's really been our approach. The EPA in the past has pushed back on larger volume growth, mostly based on their concerns about the availability of renewable feedstocks. And so going back to the conversation about these soybean crush plants, we think that's really important factor. We think that there's plenty of feedstock available to grow these ratios. And, we're trying to help provide them good information to make a case for higher growth in the RVO for 2026 and future years.

[Yeager] Because I'm, I also think I'm hearing you say, help me out if I'm wrong. The EPA wants to make sure that this is more of an American grown a homegrown product, because if you set the volume requirement or obligation so high and you need to fill this gap that can't be raised by the American farmer, you may have to go somewhere else to fill that volume or to fill that hole to fill that volume again. Do I have that somewhat right?

[Nees] Yeah, partially. I think that they're looking at all the feedstock available. There's no, there's no policy that says we can't use imported, right, heat stocks to make biofuels. And so I think they're trying to find that fine line. And and really, what their focus on is in the past, they've used this food versus fuel debate. And if they set the renewable volume target too high, they're worried about food inflation. And so that's probably their biggest concern, especially when we think about the inflationary environment we've been in for quite some time. There's quite a target on their back around not wanting to raise food prices more than they want. So that would be an unintended consequence if they set the RVO too high. And so again, trying to show the total volume of feedstock available both in the US and that's available internationally, that can come into the US and that is going to provide lower carbon intensity fuels, is something we're trying to show.

[Yeager] Where is the I don't know if you're holding hands necessarily, but where is that partnership, with biodiesel and corn based ethanol in having conversations like this with EPA?

[Nees] Yeah, absolutely. We've had great partners, in the ethanol industry. Again, we buy a lot of corn oil from that industry. We are united on a lot of policy issues, as well. And so, we see a lot of great opportunities for partnership and growing the renewable volume obligations is something that we are both completely aligned on. And so we see, great support, and the way we go about doing that now, we're not going to be alone on every single issue. But for the most part, you know, we have common interest around converting agricultural products into renewable fuels. And the same outcomes of lower carbon intensity fuels, domestic homegrown fuels and providing additional value back to farmers.

[Nees] We're completely united in that front.

[Yeager] So more friend and foe.

[Nees] Absolutely. Yes. More.

[Yeager] More partner than friend.

[Nees] Yes. Yes, absolutely. I sit on, you know, some different organizations, trade groups that are made up of both biofuel, biodiesel, renewable diesel and corn ethanol producers. And we have a lot of common interests that we work together on.

[Yeager] Is the biggest growth in biodiesel and ethanol going to come in the United States, or is it going to come from another country and not necessarily one other country, but other countries?

[Nees] We're seeing a lot of growth here. What we've seen here in the last few years, which is new to the industry, is larger oil companies getting into the biofuels business. And so we talked earlier how Chevron had acquired a renewable energy group, a little over two years ago. You know, that Chevron, decided that there was, there were following behind and the ability to, produce renewable fuels and need to step in in a bigger way. And so, they acquired Chevron, I'm sorry, Chevron acquired our player and rig was the right step to take, but we've seen that from many others, as well. We see many of the oil companies now in the biodiesel renewable diesel business and, which makes for different, you know, policy type of conversations, but also allows for, significant growth and volume, of production capacity that's available in the industry. Now, as we've seen some oil refineries that are being converted to renewable fuels, refineries, and that just adds a lot of capacity, to the market. We see Europe as a leader as well. Europe's always been a leader in biodiesel, and renewable diesel. And so that's where we see most of the growth, happening. There are some things happening in South America and Southeast Asia as well. So it really is a global market and all for different reasons. But, you know, certainly the growth in the U.S has been something that, you know, has been significant because of this participation from the oil industry.

[Yeager] Is it going to be better to be strong domestically, or is it going to be better to have. I'm not saying all the business or all the growth go global, but just the way geopolitics work of they're our friend this year, they might not be our friend next year.

[Nees] Yeah. We have really good international trade partners, both on feedstock and on fuels. But the vast majority of our business is focused on, both buying and selling, in the United States. So we'd expect that, to continue, logistics is a big part of it. You know, it's it's lower cost to keep stuff here. But that's where we're mostly focused on getting on our U.S. policy. In a way, that's supportive for keeping our product here and allowing us to continue to grow, here in the United States. And so we see great opportunities to do that. We haven't we're far from meeting any type of caps or limits. And so we think there's a lot of runway here left in the US for growth.

[Yeager] Tying it back into planes and aviation fuel, I like that. There you go. Do you see, Paul, that the story that you've told about the benefits of biodiesel here? The farmer knows if I have another place to sell my product, that's going to help me. You mentioned the carbon aspect of it. That's going to be maybe a little more governmental. That seems to be the way government likes to. They like that. What's the selling point to the general public then? That makes up the majority outside of your industry. That needs to know what your story is and what's positive about it.

[Nees] Well, I think there's general awareness across the country around the need for we need to lower the carbon intensity of our fuels. And so, you know, we need more and more energy every day. We also need lower carbon energy every day. And so we think we have a great, product that helps us to do that. And so, you know, we're fueling trucks and railroads and boats that are really kind of that workhorse that helps run this country. And so, being able to produce a domestically produced fuel that's lower carbon produced from agricultural inputs. It's pretty good story. And so we see great. You know, great acceptance of that. And we see a lot of people, you know, want to reach out more for how they can participate, and use these types of fuels. It doesn't require any type of special engine modification. And so it's easy for them to convert their fleets into these types of renewable fuels, without having to do major investments. On their end.

[Yeager] The homegrown side of things, the not open to global wars is, it seems to always be a selling point when people talk about gas prices and I know that gas has a different word in your world having something different. But you get what I'm saying, right?

[Nees] Absolutely. Yeah. You know, people have their eyes on the fuel pump, every day, whether it's gas or diesel. And we think that having a secure supply here in the US is pretty darn important, as well. So we're happy to contribute towards that.

[Yeager] We've talked about feedstocks, we've talked about biodiesel, renewable diesel. But I guess we haven't looked at your official title of global supply trading. What's the market look like right now for trading? What does that mean in your world?

[Nees] Yeah. So I have teams that are responsible for logistics, acquiring the feedstocks that we, put into our refineries, doing trading, and doing hedging and risk management activities. But as I said earlier, we're a global business. We source feedstock from places, all around the globe, South America, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, Europe as well. And so, it's really important for us to have, supply chains and visibility to all the different markets and so we can optimize based on the product that's most available. And we see, different cycles and commodity prices here in the US and internationally. And we want to have access to the feedstocks that provide us the most value. And so, as we try to grow our business, we want to have a larger supply of, volume available for us to do that. I don't think I mentioned that earlier, but we have a big expansion happening in our business right now. We have a renewable diesel plant that's in operation today. And guys, my Louisiana, which is right around New Orleans, currently producing about 90 million gallons per year. By the end of this calendar year, we'll complete the expansion and will be running 340 million gallons a year when that project is completed. And so, it just points to, again, our need to grow total feedstock supply to be able to feed our growing demand within our network. But overall, the industry is growing as well. And so we're just looking to supply low carbon intensity feedstocks to to keep growing the industry.

[Yeager] Are we going to see more retrofits of oil refineries and not new ones built?

[Nees] Yeah, I think that's a pretty, big shift that we've seen here in the past couple of years as some of these smaller oil refineries that maybe weren't as profitable for, for various reasons, made more sense to switch into, renewables. And some of those projects been quite successful. I would expect that we're going to see more discussion of that happening as we see more demand for renewables grows. Every refinery has their own set of, of, supply and demand fundamentals that are going to drive that, decision making. But, you know, certainly that's been a model that has worked and would expect more people looking at, doing that as well.

[Yeager] I've had this discussion multiple times over years here about nobody wants to there's always the biggest Nimby. They think it's a packing plant. It's probably a refinery. Nobody wants to put a new one in their backyard. And it is by your smile, I think you're in agreement there with me.

[Nees] Yeah, certainly a petroleum refinery. But I tell you, we have biodiesel plants, renewable diesel plants, and, you know, you're not talking about near the same type of environmental impact or noise and smell that you'd maybe see at other types of locations. So, we're pretty good neighbors, as far as that goes. And so, you know, we've seen, you know, early on with the biodiesel industry growing. We had lots of farmer investor groups or just community investors that wanted to put a refinery in their community, somewhere. And so, you know, they're reaching out to say, hey, we we see the future of biodiesel. We think this is a great potential market opportunity. How do we get in this? And so we had the knowledge and expertise to understand the technology and know how to build a refinery that would produce quality product. And then the business know how to know how to run this thing as far as buying and selling and and doing all the things to run these refineries. And so we were able to build biodiesel plants for other investor groups early on, when they were wanting to grow these things out. And so, so I think people really appreciate the rural, economic impact that these refineries have had in Iowa and across the country, because they've been pretty significant in areas that haven't had a lot of other, you know, new job opportunities. They've been some pretty significant sources of investment and job opportunities for people.

[Yeager] Do you see the growth in your industry to continue to be much more of a measured stair step? Or do you see one of these big leaps that's really going to stretch the capacity? I'm getting the sense from the government. They want to keep it on a stair step approach.

[Nees] Yeah, I think it’ll be more measured growth. We're starting to mature a little bit. Like I said earlier, I've been in this industry for 20 years and there's been a lot of ups and downs and sometimes some sharp ups and downs. And so you know, really, as we talk about the renewable volume obligation and policy and, we see companies having that demand pull for our product. We're really talking about pace of growth. We're not talking about, is this industry going to be here or not, or is it going to grow by 50%? It's just the pace of growth that we're really talking about. And we still think there's a lot of runway, as I said earlier. But we're becoming a much more mature industry that has more, more stable, returns and, and more stable growth.

[Yeager] Lastly, the ceiling on this, do you how high is that ceiling?

[Nees] At the end of the day? I think it's quite high. I think, you know, biodiesel, renewable diesel can displace a lot of petroleum fuel in the supply chain today. So if you look at the size of the diesel market in the U.S. is something over 60 billion gallons. It's a huge market. Really the limits to growth are going to be the availability of feedstock, vegetable oils, animal fats. Talos. There's only so much of that that we grow, every year. And that'll continue to grow on an annual basis. We're looking at things, novel technologies that might provide new types of feedstocks that we haven't used in the past. We are partnering with folks in the industry on drilling out, cover crops and winter oilseed crops so we can see opportunities for farmers to grow more crops on the existing land that they have. And so I think there's other ways that we can grow the overall supply of feedstocks, because we really see that as the ability for our ability to grow feedstocks will be the way that we can grow the size of this industry. And so we're find ways to different, different ways to invest in the feedstock growth, to help support that.

[Yeager] Paul Nees. Thank you so very much. Appreciate your time.

[Nees] Thanks a lot, Paul. Great talking with you.

[Yeager] New episodes every Monday from Market to Market and the MToM podcast. A reminder to subscribe to the Market Insider newsletter. Because in this space, there might be something fun coming your way in 2025. Stay tuned. Subscribe for that newsletter and be in the know. We'll see you next time. Bye bye.

Contact: Paul.Yeager@IowaPBS.org