Cattle industry faces tough drought and economic headwinds - Michael Kelsey

Paul Yeager: Well, boy, Howdy do we have ourselves a good conversation coming. And I say that in all seriousness, but you're gonna hear that phrase a little bit because we're going to Oklahoma. Michael Kelsey is the executive vice president of the Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association. In case you've been living under a dry rock, there's two big things happening to the cattle industry. Right now. It is very dry and big key cattle producing areas Oklahoma. Hello, and Texas and Kansas and other places. We're going to talk about the struggles that the producers in that state are facing. We're going to learn more about Michael. We're also going to have a little bit of discussion to some of the politics involved in the industry. We've discussed that before about action that's heading on in Congress. Some parties within the party senators are struggling to find common ground. So what does that mean for the producer? But let's go a little bit find out what's going on with the Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association. Our guest today, Michael Kelsey, I'm Paul Yeager. By the way, this is the MtoM Show podcast. You're in the M to M podcast studio, here at Iowa PBS. If you have feedback for me, hit me up at Paul Yeager@IowaPBS.ORG. New episodes each and every Tuesday. If you like us, rate us if you have comments, leave them. I'd like to hear from you. Either where you listen or watch or you can email. But now, let's have that conversation with Mike. 

When you Google Michael Kelsey, I see Rockstar. Oh, do you get that often do people stop and ask you are that are you that Rockstar guy?

Michael Kelsey   I really don't. Although, you know, I've googled myself, everybody.

Paul Yeager   Does everybody does it.

Michael Kelsey   It's okay. It's I think he's from Indiana. Yeah. I've never met him and I'd love to meet him sometime. I have no idea. Yeah, but no, I'm not the rock star. So well,

Paul Yeager   you could I think when we get done with this, people might say, well, he's a cow rock star.

Michael Kelsey   I don't know about that. out there. 

Paul Yeager   So where are you sitting, what in Oklahoma City?

Michael Kelsey   I'm in our office in Oklahoma City. We're down in the stockyards is where our office is. We've been here since probably the early 60s. In which is great because we're there'll be a cattle truck parked in front of our office almost weekly, certainly on Mondays and Tuesdays and we don't mind one bit because hey, that's that's our customers. That's our livelihood. That's our members. And so yeah, we're right down here in Oklahoma City. It is dry, dry dry right now. And I know that's what we're going to talk about.

Paul Yeager   We are a first I want to talk about you a little bit from the farm. You grew up on a ranch

Michael Kelsey:   I did. I grew up in southwest kind of south central Oklahoma, we had a primarily we registered operation, but we had some commercial cattle as well. Probably the most honestly, the most money we ever made as a kid was when we Stockard some cows that took advantage of a market that just let him go buy some just kind of some old cows, we d warmed him the first thing we did, we got home turned him out with a bull, we had some forage, made more money on those cattle and then not anything else but but that's how I grew up grew up feeding cattle, you know, doing chores in the morning doing chores in the evening. excetera just loved it. Love the beef industry, love the people in the beef industry. And I'm blessed to be able to call OCA my home

Paul Yeager   Were you in one of those positions? Where? Yeah, I'd like to go back, but it's hard to do.

Michael Kelsey   Yeah, it is. I was and the the operation where mom and dad were wasn't big enough to keep several people and the 80s were tough on us as they were with a lot of people. No hard feelings. No, no resentments are, you know, nothing of that nature in terms of our family because mom and dad were able to raise my sister and I, you know, in a rural environment and instill a lot of those good qualities there. And we weren't able to hold on to the operation long after the mid 90s. But that's okay. I mean that those things, those types of things happen unfortunately, you try to to move through them, but just very grateful for the upbringing that I had.

Paul Yeager   Well, and that allows you in your job to be able to relate to people when you say I know what you're going through, and it's not a hollow thing that you're saying.

Michael Kelsey:     I hope so. I genuinely try to remember obviously a lot of things change agriculture updates with innovations and technology like every other industry does. But you still have to go feed those cattle when it's cold outside. You still have to haul water no water

Paul Yeager   So stop, stop with this cold business of Oklahoma, it what, gets below 40 or something?

Michael Kelsey:  You know, that's I know but it's I tell you what the past two February's here in the state of Oklahoma, we've had a couple of stretches that were gruesome for us, for us and actually talking to some folks have really they've changed their operation because of it. I've, in fact one of our past presidents used to camp quite a few heifers in early February. He's not doing that anymore. And he said you know I just can't do that. I probably won't ever have another February like that in his lifetime. But it changes. Yeah. And so you're right. It's all contextual. It's all context. Boy howdy, you can get gold?

Paul Yeager   Well, I will say that our friends from North Dakota and in northern Minnesota that watch and listen to us, they do give me grief about Paul, look at the temperature. Today. You're complaining about single digits? We haven't seen that in a month. So yes, it is all relative. It is all relative. Okie state, Oklahoma State's, that were you went? 

Michael Kelsey:   you go to Oklahoma State? You bet you can't shake that. I

Paul Yeager   get it. I know.

Michael Kelsey:  There you go. That's right. You haven't got my orange. Oh,

Paul Yeager   I see that. Why there?

Michael Kelsey: I actually started at NEO on a livestock judging scholarship, junior college and then went to OSU but I had planned to go to OSU my entire life because I wanted to be a veterinarian. And my granddad was a veterinarian in southwest Oklahoma in in Elgin, and that's what I wanted to do. So Oklahoma State animal science was that was kind of bred into me Dr. Totusek, who was the department chair for years. If anybody's acquainted with OSU, you know, Doctor 'Tot' and so he recruited and recruited and recruited and so I was just going to OSU and that's and that's where I went and and loved it had a great tenure. There learned a lot of things met a tremendous amount of people. And and that's really probably honestly the people is what valued me more or was more valuable to me than anything in that space. But yeah, go Poke's. Absolutely.

Paul Yeager   Did you when you say livestock judging? Was that something you thought maybe you would do more of?

Michael Kelsey   Well, you mean after college? Yeah.

Paul Yeager   I'm sorry. Yes. You know,

Michael Kelsey   I did a little bit there for a while and and then got busy with other things. And we start and my wife and I, we obviously started having kids. And so we started showing a little bit and so forth that I still love to go to the livestock show and, and armchair quarterback, the the judges that are out there, you know how everybody does. But you know, it's one of those things. It's a lot of fun when you do it. It's a lot of work. And it takes a lot of talent. And I really admire those folks who do that. And do that. Well, because there's some there's some good ones You bet.

Paul Yeager   When did the logo behind you become a part of your life?

Michael Kelsey:  I started in 2013 is when I started here at OCA and I'm actually in our boardroom is where I'm at and I have to say, I was in this boardroom when I was in my teenage years when I started on the junior Junior Cattlemen's board, as well as the Oklahoma Junior Herford Association. We would have our meetings here at the OCA office in this boardroom. And as a junior cattleman. And so and I remember even younger than that, when I was growing up, we would often sell cattle over here at the stockyards a lot of times we sold at Apache, that was a little closer for us, but a lot of times we sold here and so when Dad and I would bring cattle up here we'd always stopped Cattlemen's Steakhouse on the way back that you just had to do that. But as we drove by, you know, dad would say hey, look, there's the Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association. We were members of OCA as I was growing up and you know little snot nosed kid, push  window his nose up against the window and go wow, look at that. And now it's my office. I mean, it's really it's really honestly a bit of a dream come true. And I'm, I, do it more of his honor and a privilege to work for our members in the beef cattle producers here in Oklahoma. But I do feel a sense of heritage at this association because it's been a part of my family's life for for many, many years.

Paul Yeager   Did you come in at the position you are or did you work your way?

Michael Kelsey:  No, I came in as Exec. I was actually spent a little well I've kind of been a nomad since I left OSU moving around, but spent some time but most recently before here, I was at Nebraska with Nebraska Cattlemen. And again, that's a who you know, not what, you know, I bought a Herford heifer from Homer Buell, Shovel Dot Ranch, which is square in the middle of Nebraska when I was a sophomore in high school, and we stayed connected. And he knew my family and I knew his family and we stayed connected. And years later, he called and said, Hey, we've got an open position. Would you be interested and I did and went to Nebraska moved the family up there for about eight and a half years and loved it. And Nebraska Cattlemen were so good to us. I mean, they they were so kind and generous to an Okie who didn't drink coffee till I moved up there. And I did that just to survive the winters. You know, it's so cold,

Paul Yeager   Yes, now we're back to the relativeness, Yes, Nebraska.

Michael Kelsey   But yeah, but anyway, so it you know, and then when I had an opportunity when the the previous execs got me well, whose good friend when he left to go to REI, the position came out and I thought, you know, it's home. I've got to try and see what happens and we've been here since 2013.

Paul Yeager   You are sitting in the boardroom. And when those members board members come in, what are they telling you right now about this? Eight of the cattle industry in the state of Oklahoma.

Michael Kelsey:  And it's it's it's really we're in really troubling times. It's weather related and economy related as to things I would say is what I'm hearing more than anything. And then as you look at the average age of the beef producer, not only in Oklahoma that even across the country, but in Oklahoma is not unique. In that sense, the average age of the producer, whether you're in the cattle business, or farming, corn, or whatever, we all know that age is creeping up. And so we're gonna see a lot of generational transfer. And so sometimes the drought and the economy actually excels that in not a good way, sometimes it can be good, but not necessarily so water right now, drought, whether we're hauling water to cattle or trying to figure out how in the world water the cattle. That's, that's really tough plus, then the forage basis, or I should say, the lack of forages, because of the drought and even the outlook. We're a strong wheat pasture country, as you well know, we graze a lot we import a lot of cattle in Oklahoma, mainly from the southeast is where they primarily come from Kentucky and south and so forth. Boy howdy, you it's gonna be tough to do that this year, because we're just not going to have the wheat pasture unless conditions improve, and so that the Outlook doesn't look very promising right now from a drought and then you tack on the economy. And the economy. What I mean by that is cattle prices, you're talking to a cattleman. So cattle prices could always be better, right? I mean, they can always be better. But cattle prices really are pretty strong right now, beef demands really strong considering, but boy howdy when you factor in $4.50 diesel, and the supply chain challenges of where do I even get, Hey, what is corn going to cost? What are your feed stuffs going to cost? How am I going to ship it in? All of those input costs are just really challenging folks. And so we're hearing a lot of of concern. We're, we're also hearing a lot of selling a lot I would say right now I'm talking to Dr. Derrell Peel, last week about this very question, you know, how many cows have we sold in the state of Oklahoma? What's our cow herd? In other words, and we're probably his, he said, You know, I'm gonna kind of guess this, but it's eight to 12%. I wouldn't disagree with him at all. And I think we're going to see another sale of cows, because a lot of our members are telling us they don't have enough hay to get the cows that they still have through the winter. And so we may have to sell some more cows. So is it theoretically possible that we'll sell 20% of our cows in the state of Oklahoma? And I think the answer is yes, I hope not.

Paul Yeager   Well, what timeframe? Are you talking here? When you say eight to 12?

Michael Kelsey   Right, eight to 12 would be Oh, that's a good question. So it would be relative to this time last year. Okay.

Paul Yeager   So we're talking annual,

Michael Kelsey   so year over year annual Yeah, yeah. So this time last year, we can share and you know, we weren't bumper crop of cows, but we were a healthy cow. We were very healthy cow herd this time last year.

Paul Yeager   Now. Now, I know you said things are connected and we know that they are but if you had to say one is leading the other and why someone's making a sale, is there a leader, drought?

Michael Kelsey: Drought, definitely drought right now. It's just we just don't have the the forages either on the ground or stored hay etc. Or the prospect of forages, we actually have a lot and you would know this, but we have a lot of folks who graze cows on wheat pasture. So in addition to stalkers, and so without that prospect of that green feed stuff in, in December, January, February, March, and then those guys who decide to graze it on out, boy howdy, it's just gonna get really tough. So drought, drought, by far and away is the main concern. 

Paul Yeager   As we record this right now, Michael, the state of Oklahoma 99.97% of the state is in some form of drought. Three months ago, that was 41%. But we know if we go back to a year, we were back up to about 70%. Has it been a long pattern of drought that's led up to some issues? I mean, because you look at winter wheat a year ago at this time, there's always optimism in agriculture, if you know it'll rain, if we plan it, it'll, it'll work itself out. But right now, it's not working itself out.

Michael Kelsey:  No, it's not. And that's an interesting question. And I would say that's probably more of an individual type of an answer. In other words, there are some folks who compounding years compounding droughts has just really hit him pretty, pretty hard. There are others that maybe it hasn't as as much as and then there are others, for instance, like this time, this drought, especially on the eastern side of the state has struck people so hard, that they weren't necessarily in some of those deep shade colors that we see on the Drought Monitor as last year. But, boy howdy they're having to make some decisions now. So that's why I say I think it's really more individual as to what an individual's having to do on their operation, but holistically, we're seeing some drastic actions and drastic changes that would, as a pattern wise would indicate we're selling cows, the number of calves we're going to have is not going to be as high, the available forage we're going to have is not going to be there. So just some really difficult decisions right now,

Paul Yeager   Who are the buyers in state or out of state? 

Michael Kelsey   Most of them are out of state, a lot of these cows are from what we understand and want to slaughter. A lot of them are going there. You know, you said a minute ago optimism, I tell you what, you're absolutely right. And so we're working with members on the IRS, obviously, there's some rules in place that if you have to sell cattle beyond what you would normally sell, then you can offset some of those capital gains if you reinvest within three years, and so forth. And so we're working with members to make sure they know the information they need for their tax accountant. That's just the optimism of who we are to remain in business. You know, and to keep looking ahead at that next year, hey, it's gonna get better, it's gonna get better, we're gonna we're gonna get through this. But boy, howdy, it's, it's just really tough right now. But we're thinking most of those cows are going to slaughter. So that tells me that, you know, a good replacement heifer, this time next year is going to be worth her weight in gold, maybe. And so if we do have some members who've had some timely rains, and they've been able to hold on to some of those heifers, they may be doing very, very well, this time next year.

Paul Yeager   Well, and that's what I was going to ask them when you say where they were going, who in your state can survive this a larger producer or a smaller producer?

Michael Kelsey   Ah, you know, at that, that is a really good question. And, and if the larger producer has done some things to insulate themselves, and those would be more production in orientation, then they they will be able to survive. Now, again, they're going to downsize. If they have some access to some pasture somewhere else that they can get some cattle to, and so forth. The smaller producer, what we're finding interesting about them is is some of them, in fact, most of them have off-farm incomes. And so they're a little bit insulated from some of the drastic changes that we see whether it'd be market oriented or input costs and so forth, still hits them. I'm not trying to trivialize that by any stretch of the means. But with that off-farm income, they are able to maneuver a little bit, that maybe a larger producer who's solely based on their income on those cows may not have that functionality to do. So again, I guess it drives home, it's still somewhat of an individual response. And and I know that sounds kind of, you know, weird, but it is it is what it is, yeah.

Paul Yeager   Well, let's get you in political water here. Did those small producers hurt or help the industry?

Michael Kelsey   I think they're, they're very much helpful to the industry, we've got to have producers of all shapes, sizes and kinds in our industry. If you consider the the availability of the resources, there are some resources that a smaller operator can take advantage of that larger operator cannot remember, we're dealing with an animal that the good Lord created to take something we can't use and turn it into something we can't, we can't use grass as humans, but boy, how do we can use beef and that cow can do that better than anything else. And so there are some available resources that a smaller producer may have some access to that a larger producer, it would just be too cost prohibitive for them to try to get to. At the same time, larger producers provide that bulk and that volume, that consistency and product. I mean, you can breed, you know, 200 cows to the same genetics. And so there's a place for everybody. The The other thing I would emphasize, too, is is even in Oklahoma, which is we're flyover state, we know that so are we high, but yes, you are to not a high population state, but we're seeing more and more consumers who want to reach out to a local producer and purchase their product locally. So a small producer can do that much more efficiently than a large producer can. And so I think there's room at the table for everybody. And we need to emphasize that and we need to help producers wherever their model is, let's help them build it up.

Paul Yeager   Well, it's like you were looking at my questions, or at least the ones I had in my mind. I want to go back to let's go back to March, April, May of 2020. We're seeing the stories we did the stories here on Market to Market about locally-sourced food. People are like okay, the, the big packer can't push the animal through but this small two to four person can do it. Did that happen in Oklahoma like it did and in the states that that I'm in, that maybe don't have quite the large footprint of the animal like you do?

Michael Kelsey   Yes. We did we spent I'm so appreciate your question because in March of 2020, actually a probably a month or two before that, excuse me, we reached out to Secretary Arthur, Blayne, Arthur at our Department of Agriculture, who is fantastic as far as agriculture is concerned. She's a cattleman. She, she was raised in agriculture, she knows what's going on, she has a great connection to agriculture. And we asked her, Hey, can we work together, public private, if you will, and figure out this this concept or excuse me, figure out this Packer issue this, this ability to pack animals, and she said, Let's do it. And so we started working on that, at that point in time actually, really dug into it from a task force present a presentation type process and looked at what are our challenges of building smaller and medium size packing operations, the ability to build a large one, we'd love to do that. I think everybody would. But the realities of building a 5000 ahead of day packing plant are just tough. I mean, they are they just, that's what they are. But boy, if we can build a lot of these smaller ones that think can serve as those folks who want to sell directly, as well as may be able to sell into their local restaurant, we have a producer out west, and in western Oklahoma, she sells a lot of her beef to a local Mexican restaurant. They advertise that as local beef. And so it's a great partnership. Small, it's not industry changing, which are changing for her. It's critical for her. And so those that has come along very well in Oklahoma, I tell you, that's the challenge we're running up against to right now, though, is rendering, the ability for rendering product, whether it be hides, or the offal, O-F-F-A-L product, the offal product, the tongues and livers and you know, all those types of things. Even if you're in a 50 head a week plant, you got to do something with that product, and it has value. So we've we're trying to figure out, we're working with our legislature now Representative John Pfeiffer, who's doing a great job asking some good questions about rendering. I just bring that up to say, hey, we've got opportunities, but we've also got challenges, but let's look at them as opportunities and build our industry.

Paul Yeager   Do they say in the cattle industry like they do in the hog industry, they process everything but the squeal or everything.

Michael Kelsey   We've used everything and we can even have moves on our phone now. So use it all. Don't we use it all? 

Paul Yeager   Well, let's go back to the Pokes. Let's go back to Oklahoma State. What's that relationship like of telling the university what the need is and put some brains in those think tanks in those towers of you know, how can you help us out?

Michael Kelsey   We've got a great relationship with Oklahoma State we just hired I say, we are not employed by us you but I am always you. We just hired a new department chair of Animal Science, Dr. Richard Coffey, he's going to do a great job. We're excited about the enthusiasm that he's bringing in. Dr. Kayse Shrum, who is our university president. She's a medical doctor, but she's very in tune with rural Oklahoma. And so she has translated her thoughts and processes on health care, to rural Oklahoma into the health of rural Oklahoma, more than just health. And so Oklahoma State is, is really positioning itself very well to do a lot of good things for rural Oklahoma. And we're really excited about that.

Paul Yeager   Let's close let's let's do the last part about politics for a bit. I know I kind of teased you earlier. You bet. There's national bills being discussed how could help or hurt the cattle producer? Are there state bills? What just, first, lay the groundwork about what's important in Oklahoma? I mean, do you does your state legislature really help you? Or do you need bet? Do you get better assistance on the federal level when it comes to some of your national part of your livestock industry?

Michael Kelsey   You bet we have a great relationship here on the state level. Our both our house and senate do a great job but both of our Chairman's of our ag committees, as well as some of our leadership within the House and Senate, whether it be a floor leader or something along those lines are rural, and they're in tune with rural Oklahoma. So excellent. There, Oklahoma. Our federal delegation is fantastic. Now we're going to we're going to change a few of those. We're going to elect a new Senator James Inhofe, Senator Inhofe is retiring, and and so we're going to elect a new senator, it looks like representative Mullins is probably going to be that person. If you know who you look at the polls and so forth. I will elect a new Congressman on the east side of the state. All that seems to be shaken up. We have a great relationship with our federal delegation. Here in Oklahoma, we're very red, very, very red. So very Republican, very conservative, fiscally conservative, as well as how do we make this work out in the real world is what I call conservative versus a one size fits all. And that's important when you think about environmental issues, climate change some of those types of buzzwords that come up, especially in Washington way more than they come up in Oklahoma City, but are very important for us to be at the table to engage in. 

Paul Yeager   All right. You didn't mention though anything about that Packer margin or the Independent Producer Act, or, I mean, what does that relate into?

Michael Kelsey   The trance, the cattle Transparency Act by your good senator, Mr. Grassley and Senator Fischer just to the west? Yes. Yeah, we struggle with that one specifically, because of that mandated selling piece that cash market or negotiate I shouldn't say cash that's not fair, negotiated trade that mandated negotiated trade, our folks have just traditionally been, hey, we need to not let the government tell us how to sell and buy our cattle. That being said, we love some of the ideas of the Act about transparency. We need more transparency in our market, no questions asked, and we want to do to help whatever we can do to help make that happen. We want to do that the boy howdy, just to be honest, that mandated piece just gives us a lot of heartburn.

Paul Yeager   Well, I think it and when you talk about the red, I mean, you're talking about other Republicans that can't agree on this topic, let alone trying to get the as of now, as we record this still the majority in the Senate, they're trying to find something. So do you think that's maybe been a little bit of the hurdle and trying to get something done?

Michael Kelsey   I you bring up a great point, it's hard to talk agriculture in Washington, because the air in the room gets sucked out by the Supreme Court or Ukraine or which are all very, very important issues. And agriculture only affects what less than one and a half percent of the people or something like that we all know those figures, but it actually affects us all, because we're raising the food. And so it, it's really hard to have those conversations sometimes, which means that we have to have a really fast, which sometimes means we don't have time to really figure out what we can work together on and makes it just tougher to have those decisions.

Paul Yeager   I believe a conversation we've had previously on this podcast gets into go back to your independent nature of the the Transparency Act of that, if you don't have that part that mandates what a packer has to buy. That's their big problem. They because they think sometimes a packer will buy more. But if the Packers not mandated to buy more, they won't. Do you agree with that?

Michael Kelsey   I don't necessarily agree with that. I see their point. I see their point. And and it's one of those conversations we boy, we've had a lot of discussion about this outside of Washington, we need to be able to have it more inside of Washington without the politics, which is I know, is a crazy thing to even ask and say, but it's just a perspective issue. Again, I think eventually, beef demand is fantastic right now. And boy, if we could, we could finalize it and really hone in on that let's build demand for our product packers gonna pay more, especially if we're building more packing facilities that will compete with those folks. And if we're more transparent in our market prices, in some of those bigger contracts and so forth, that would be helpful as well. So it's not that I you know, it's it. Can it be a war on the range? Yeah, we could do that if we want. But that wouldn't be productive. Let's not do that. Let's figure this out together and move forward in a positive fashion.

Paul Yeager   What do you think about Packer margins? I mean, we were at really high levels, we're starting to let off those a little bit. That's just America work.

Michael Kelsey   It, you know, it sure can be can it I mean, sometimes when you when you have a corporate model system, that answers to a shareholder versus answering to that and you know, a family, it makes it a really tough dynamic that can cause some, some challenges, if you will, maybe some of the us versus them type models, the us versus them don't work. We've got to all win at this business. And we can all win at this business. If we meet, in our opinion, meet the consumers demands, let's let's fill that consumer demand. There's a place for it's just like we talked earlier, there's a place for the small guy, there's a place for the big guy, there's a place for the medium guy, just thankful that we raised the best tasting animal protein product in the world. Thank you for letting me put that in there.

Paul Yeager   Michael, let's do this. You're 10 years in on the job. Yep. 10 years down the road. Who's the biggest? What's the face of the cattlemen look like in the state of Oklahoma?

Michael Kelsey   You know, I think 10 years down the road, we're gonna see a lot of generational transfer of of assets land primarily. Again, going back to that age issue. I think you're gonna see a cattle producer, that's very diversified. That's very risk oriented. So they're managing their risk as much of anything. I'll give you an example back in a About three weeks after the August, fire up in Kansas, the pack of the Tyson fire in Holcomb, Kansas, I called a producer and I said, Hey, how you doing? Because I knew he had about 300 calves ready to go the market. He said, You know, I saw my calves before they were born. So I'm really not worried about this market. And I'm like, wow, tell me more about that. I think we're gonna see I'm not suggesting we'll have more people so can't but I think there's just going to diversify their risk. They're going to figure out how do we manage that more appropriately, I don't necessarily think it's more integrated type marketing systems, we'll see more of those. That's, that's natural, but it's not necessarily that I think we're just gonna get creative. We're gonna be we're gonna figure out how to diversify our income, use our land to do that, whether it's wildlife or whatever the case may be, and do a lot of those types of things. We're already starting to see a lot of that I think we'll see more of it.

Paul Yeager   Dry. And we're selling off. I've got my two, two points, right. Do I have it right?

Michael Kelsey   You've got them right. reversal on that trend?

Paul Yeager   I'm gonna I'm gonna go ice. Sorry. I'm gonna go back to whether for a minute dry since 2010, '11 and '12. You hadn't started on the job yet? And it was that dry. Remember that drought? I think we had video out of Oklahoma and we saw the sale barns were full. Are you seeing a repeat of what it was? 10 years ago?

Michael Kelsey   We Yeah, we've we've slowed down a little bit, because we sold them earlier. Yeah, so we're seeing less now because we sold them earlier. Okay. I think I'm afraid we're going to see another resurgence here in the next month or two.

Paul Yeager   Well, and so I guess that I guess the reason I bring it up is it's a little misleading when you see Oh, sales aren't so bad. That's because everything has been sold already. And if it's if it's not going to another feedlot or another pasture, and it's going to slaughter of course that animals not going to resurface.

Michael Kelsey   That's right. And she's our factory. Yeah. She's our fact. She's what makes the calves you know, calf prices. Next year, you're after it's gonna be great, right? Because we're selling all these cows will have fewer calves. But if you don't have any cows to make calves, then you don't really care what calf price is. Right.

Paul Yeager   So yeah, heck of a cycle. Alright, Michael get back to practicing that rock music so we can add rock position to it. All right. Michael Kelsey, thank you so much.

Michael Kelsey   Thank you. Appreciate you.

Paul Yeager   Thanks for the insight there on what's going on with the Oklahoma cattlemen. We'll keep watching each and every week on the Market to Market TV show and every Tuesday, new podcasts come out called the MtoM. That's what this is. Thanks for watching, listening or reading. See you next time.