Planting pause and late arriving rain highlight differences between Illinois and Oklahoma

[Paul Yeager] Hi everybody, I'm Paul Yeager This is the MtoM Show podcast, a production of Iowa PBS and the Market to Market TV show. We are going for a crop check last year we talked to a couple of farmers in North Dakota and Kansas a couple of times during the year. We're going to do the same thing again this year, but we're changing spots just to kind of keep things moving. We're gonna go Illinois, and Oklahoma - Illinois in the heart of the Corn Belt is where we'll talk to Chad Bell. We just talked to Chad a few weeks ago on an episode about his stardom as a Super Bowl actor, Super Bowl commercial actor. So if you want to go back and listen to Chad to get to know him a little bit more, but we're you caught up with him in the cab of his pickup truck. As he waited for it to warm up and dry off. He had just had some rain overnight. So we find out where the early planting window opened for him and what it means moving forward. So you'll hear from Chad Bell, but you're also going to hear from Mike Schulte. He is a farmer in Oklahoma. He also has a day job as the executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission. So we'll find out a better scope picture of the wheat picture. In Oklahoma, I can tell you it's summed up by one word dry, there's a stat he is going to throw out that might surprise you how long the state had gone between measurable rainfalls it's one that he hasn't seen in quite some time. So that is our discussion this week crop progress. If you have any feedback for me send me an email at Paul.Yeager@iowaPBS.org. You can also like us subscribe to this podcast, you can share it with a friend. That's when I really appreciate it. And I really think those core group of you that watch or listen each and every week so here, let's find out what's happening down on the farm. Chad you dress like you're farming today. Any farming today in your  future?

[Chad Bell] The only farming in my future today is doing a little bit of repair work on the beam planter and finishing some setup for a new group of pigs in my pig barn.

[Paul] Alright, so you do have to keep moving, even if it's raining. How are we here in late April?

[Chad] I've got about little over 10% of my corn planted and pretty close to 30% soybeans planted as of yesterday, last night. We planted three days there the week of the 10th, the week of Easter, planted about 25% of our soybeans and that little bit of corn during that time and soil conditions were just perfect. And there was you couldn't have couldn't ask for anything better than what we had. And so we decided to plant some corn and beans that week and time will tell if that was the right move or if we should have planted more or less but we planted some and put some eggs in the basket.

[Paul] Is that up? What you planted? 

[Chad] No. Nope, not yet. I dug on some of it yesterday morning. And it's got a it's got a ways to go the corn does for sure. The beans at least where I dug I didn't spend a lot of time in either field. But I what I did dig was pretty close to coming out here and another few days.

[Paul] If it was maybe a little warmer that that seed probably would have popped?

[Chad] Yeah, if I if I would have planted earlier in the week, probably that week of Easter. It would probably be up. I planted Tuesday or Wednesday, Thursday, Friday of that week soybeans and I think that that helped to kind of drag my feet a little bit and wait till the latter end of the warm weather otherwise, I probably would have had beans up maybe yesterday and they would have gotten frosted and pretty hard yesterday.

[Paul] Well, yeah, I was gonna ask. So you had you're kind of in our area and it was frost. So you did have some frost?

[Chad] Yeah, we had a I would say a pretty hard freeze. Actually. My dad said he had I think 25 on his thermometer at home and the Quad Cities was talking about 27 or 28 degrees. So I would assume that it would be colder a little bit closer to the surface from where those typical temperatures are taken. So I would say we would have had some problems if we had crop up yesterday.

[Paul] So that was the temptation there to plant. I guess you're saying time will tell. But sitting a week after, two weeks after that first round of planting. Are you kicking yourself going? I should have planted more. Are you still okay with your decision?

[Chad] I'm still okay with it. I think looking back now, I would have planted a different hybrid than I did on corn. I think time will tell on that, I thought was that nice warm week warm soil temperatures? I took a risk on some lower, lower scoring cold germ samples for that hybrid, and I thought I'm gonna risk it, and I'm gonna try it. And time will tell on that for sure. But I don't I don't have any regrets. With either crop really short of that. The hybrid selection maybe. But otherwise, I don't I don't think I would have planted any more. Maybe I will maybe I would have planted a few more beans and just kind of sat tight with corn like it did. But we'll get a window at some point. And yeah, we'll get to them.

[Paul] Are you 50/50? corn soybeans, do you think this year have you? Did you change any of your plans?

[Chad] No, no change? The plans are pretty, pretty close to 50/50 every year?

[Paul] And is there any acres? Where if you know the rain just kind of annoys you that you may have to flip something? I mean, do you still have that option? Are you pretty locked in?

[Chad] We're pretty well locked in we got on all of our bean stubble we have everything with anhydrous on it. We don't typically do much for corn on corn and we have most of our soybean acres go into soybeans. We don't have the pre emerge done yet. So there there would be the option to flip. But more than likely I'm I'm not going to make any changes at this point.

[Paul] How are you sitting moisture wise I mean, other than it's keeping you out of the field the subsoil pretty strong.

[Chad] Yeah, we still have tile running. We put in some new tile here over the last couple of weeks. And some events running. topsoil moisture, we're, we're a little short, I mean, all these little rains and even the cool weather that we've had, we've dried out very well for how cool it's been. And so that, that tells me that we're pretty short on topsoil moisture, but we're, we're setting Okay, on subsoil with our tile running. So we're gonna, we're in a good spot, if we can just get some warmer temperatures, even these little rains won't be much of a nuisance to us going forward.

[Paul] Where you are sitting, you can't quite see the Mississippi, but you know, it's close. And that is getting ready to flood I saw a little farther north, and that eventually goes downstream does flooding on the Mississippi impact you at all.

[Chad] It does, it has more in the past than it will this year. Most of my corn goes to an ethanol plant and when so I'm not using the river system for a lot of a lot of my corn acres. soybeans. Not a lot of effect for me either. Personally, most of my beans get shipped in the fall. And a lot of those do go to the river market out of the field. So typically, we're not looking at flood during the fall. But still the river system with the flooding coming isn't having a big effect on me, at least at the moment. But there's a lot of a lot of people that it is having an effect on that have grain to move that's locked in to go into the river market for sure.

[Paul] So let's see lock and dam 15 is the one you're between, 15 and 16? Right. That's what south of you in 15?

[Chad] Yeah. 17 I think I'm between 17 and 16.

[Paul] Okay, yeah, you're just a little farther downstream than I was thinking. Sorry. So yeah, does that close occasionally because of flooding? The river there?

[Chad] Yes, it has 2019 obviously, was a big flood year and things closed down for that for most of the summer, really. If I remember, right, we didn't send any grain to the river terminal until July. I believe that that year was the first first grain that we could haul for the for the year down to the river. Right now things are still open. From what I can tell with some text messages from some of those facilities that they're still still open this week. But I would imagine by the end of the week versus next week, they'll be closed for an undetermined amount of time.

[Paul] And this is a common time for flooding. I always think of the four 420-420-424, 430 timeframe late April is common in your area to have flooding along the river.

[Chad] Yeah, and I think a lot of the flooding this year. A lot of the water in the river is not coming from us. It's coming from the snowmelt up north. So we aren't we aren't contributing much to the to the issue right now but a lot of that snow mountain there still It looks like a lot a lot of snow to melt that come down still yet,

[Paul] You mentioned a lot of your crop goes inland ethanol this time of year, how much old crop do you have to either sell or ship? I mean, as everything's spoken for,

[Chad] We probably have about a third of our old crop corn left to go left to go and to be priced. I've just been kind of selling little bits here and there. As as time allows to get it home. And I wish I was a little more sold than that. But Hindsight is 2020. But you know, markets haven't been reacting the way that I thought they might be with some of these planting delays, and a lot of the potential for prevent plant acres up north. And I think it's things that are kind of doing the opposite of what I think they should happen. But that's just kind of how it works sometimes.

[Paul] You can try to outsmart the market, but in the end, the market makes you not feel so smart. Yeah, exactly. So that's on your core and a third left, what do you have left on beans?

[Chad] Soybeans, I've been sold out. Oh, maybe January, February, I can't I can't remember now that got most of those moves off the combine and sold the rest of them scattered through the wintertime.

[Paul] So where you're at, you're not in irrigated area right? Now. So when you see these reports of it may be wet this summer, or it may be dry, you're kind of stuck at the whatever falls falls, right? There's really nothing you can do at this point.

[Chad] Yeah, so we actually a lot of our ground, we tend to do better and a little bit drier type climate. When we get a lot of rain, we still have we still have a fair amount of farmland that's not tiled well enough that those big rains we just can't handle. And it only takes the only takes a couple of big rains a couple of days a week to ruin a crop when it comes to too much water. But it takes weeks of going without water to really suffer with our crop. So I guess we tend to do better and a little drier than little wetter. 

[Paul] Because last year if I remember what you had told me is that you were dry. And then there was a good stretch of rain. And then you dried off again, right? Is that how that went?

[Chad] Yeah, we were dry going through May and June. And then at the end of June, we caught about four and a half inches of rain and all in one shot. And then after that time for the rest of the summer, or for the most part, the rest of the summer, we were just catching little bit little bits terrain here. And there. We weren't overly dry by any means. After that we just were kind of hand to mouth at that point with rain and everything. Just the stars kind of aligned for a great crop.

[Paul] And you hope just getting that thing in. Do you feel, what are your emotions on a day like today where you're kind of stuck doing those other things instead of rolling the wheels?

[Chad] Well, if this was a, you know, there's no such thing as an average year. But I guess if I had to pick an average planting start date, that would have been yesterday, you know, the last, the last full week, April is kind of my year in year out target to get started. And so I just got to think big picture. And we're ahead of normal right now. And what I do have in the ground I feel pretty good about at the moment. So I mean, there's still a lot of time and who knows, maybe next week will be sunshine and 85 all week and we'll have the crop in the ground by next Friday. I don't know.

[Paul] Do you text the neighbors and did they get antsy too?

[Chad] Yeah, so there's been a lot of that here the last couple of weeks. Especially that week of Easter, they were talking with my ag retailer, there was a lot of guys that are typically patient and don't push the envelope and don't plant till the end of April, or they plant their corn first. They were out there early planting beans. It's just been kind of weird that we've had such a nice window there a couple of weeks ago that some people would typically wait. We're out planting and some people that were normal would normally be out planting. We're waiting so it's been kind of interesting to see who's doing what and and all that and there's been a lot of talk with neighbors on Hey, what are you doing? What do you think and it's, it's been kind of fun to see what what's going through everybody's mind and and kind of what their plan is.

[Paul] Do you see anybody with anything up?

[Chad] I haven't physically seen anything up. I have heard that there is some corn in the area maybe 20 to 30 miles south of here. That was planted just ahead of Easter. That's, that's up right now.

[Paul] And do you, I guess this will be the year that you can figure out if that early planting versus traditional or even first of May really makes a difference on on yield? Are you excited at that data point that you might get but yet apprehensive of? Well, I gotta wait.

[Chad] Yeah, I'm actually it's allowed me Yeah, it's allowed to kind of spread out our workload a little bit, spread our risk. And then an average year, you know, we're just, as soon as it's dry, we're trying to stick it all in while we've, we've only had kind of the small windows so far. So it's just allowed us to spread our risk that way, whether we wanted to or not. And so to be able to see the potential differences and planning dates, pretty nice to have that opportunity that Mother Nature has kind of forced us forced our hand that way, versus doing it ourselves. So interesting to see how it kind of plays out. But, you know, I would, I would like to get some more corn planted, but with it being so cold and chances of rain is my risk appetite for sticking much more corn in the ground is pretty low right now.

[Paul] I guess I should have asked your yield or not your your acreage number, what do you how many acres of corn do you expect to plant and how many beans when you say 50/50? on that? What are your what's your acreage this year?

[Chad] About 600 of each corn, bean.

[Paul] So that means you've got maybe 100 of each in. Wow, maybe 200 on beans?

[Chad] Yep, I got about 80 corn in and little over 200 of beans in right now.

[Paul] Okay. And then you wait.

[Chad] And then we wait. This rain that we just caught overnight here and this morning, didn't show up in the forecast till I think about Saturday or Sunday. So that was one of those things here at the end of last week with this call the call that came over the weekend and everything like well, I'll wait till Monday or Tuesday to start planning for this week. And we'll see what happens by Thursday, Friday, when we got some more rain chances coming in. But then this, this rain that happened overnight, that was kind of like forecast and kind of threw a little bit of a wrench into those plans. But I guess that's just the way it goes.

[Paul] What's your ideal temperature that you like? Both soil and air to plant in?

[Chad] Ah, that's a that's a great question. I guess. As far as the soil temp goes, I'm not overly concerned with soil temperature per se. I'd say 45 or above is okay with me. It's more about the moisture, soil moisture if we're on the wetter side 45 and wet, not good. 45 and dry all risk that, you know, nine times out of 10 Probably air temperature. I like daytime highs at least to hit 60 because that way I know our oil temperature should be trending upward. But we've been struggling to get get conditions that have to increase our soil temperature ever since that week Easter, it's just been just been slow moving or very steady.

[Paul] Well, if I look at the forecast here on my phone it I don't see too many six zeros. It looks high 50s. You're close, but at least not 40.

[Chad] Yeah, yeah. So I don't know. I mean, if you planted everything by the book, we would have planted a bunch there and the weaker Easter and wouldn't have planted anything since then. So I don't know what's right or what's wrong. But I, I got the planting capacity to be pretty patient. And so that's kind of what I'm doing. But at the same time I got other work to do besides just putting seed in the ground. I got new pigs coming in next week. So I kind of want to manage my workload with with that coming on the horizon, too.

[Paul] Well, I did want to close with your pigs. You mentioned that in the beginning. You said so they're coming next week? I guess in a sense, getting that work done when you can't be planting probably helps your mental side a little bit. No one okay, I had to get this work done. I guess it's okay to get it done right now.

[Chad] Yeah. And so that's I spent most of the weekend or at least a good portion of the weekend. Setting up the barn for the new pigs and I got most of it set up and I'll probably finish setting the rest up today as long as the sun doesn't shine and the winds not blowing and drives us off quicker than I think I'll probably finish up preparation for that here today. And then I'll be kind of in a holding pattern again.

[Paul] Well, just a moment ago the sun came and hit the side of your head. So maybe the sun's still trying.

[Chad] It's trying but it's got quite a few clouds to make its way through to stay out for good today.

[Paul] Well Chad I hope it's ideal, optimal, perfect, even imperfect planting, but planting happens soon for you. I appreciate it.

[Chad] Yep. Thanks a lot, Paul. Appreciate it.

[Paul] Mike, I have you fresh off the farm here. You were doing a field day, this morning. What are you seeing in the fields of Oklahoma?

[Mike Schulte] We are on the second field to stop this morning, we will have our third this afternoon in southwest Oklahoma. Today, we've been down at the Tipton Research Station, and we will wrap up at the Altos Research Station this evening. And I have to be honest, it is the first time in the last 10 years that I have been to these build bays in southwest Oklahoma where we have seen measurable rainfall. And so we did get measurable rainfall across the state last night, it's not going to change much. I don't think at this point in time, from what we're going to see on the perspective crop for this coming year. In many instances, it's just too little, too late. But there are some areas that did receive moisture in southwest Oklahoma this past year that look like they will make you know, in the mid 30s, and your higher management intensive producers, there are some areas maybe we're you're gonna see some stuff in the low 60s. Again, those are just instances of the crop being areas of a few in in, in far between places. So that's, you know, that's not what the state looks like, overall, overall, as you get into South Central, Central, northwest Oklahoma, where we have the majority of our wheat production, and then in the Panhandle regions, really dire situations across the state are thankful for the rain, just wish it would have came, you know, two to three months sooner.

[Paul] For those of us, we know Oklahoma,, I-35 kind of cuts you in half or in thirds. Is that right? Is that about right? Pretty well straight down the center of the state. So you're talking on the west edge of 35. It's been dry, continued to be dry. And it's a tough situation.

[Mike] As you move further west. Yes, west of 35. A dry situation, that's where the majority of our wheat production takes place in the state of Oklahoma. There are some areas USDA has in a region where 6% of the crop is favored good, 1%, excellent. 31%, fair 63% in the poor to very poor category, those numbers are just really probably nothing like we've seen in quite some time I looked back, I think it was about 2011, when we had the significant drought back then that we were kind of looking at the same situation as far as crop quality. But that 6% Good 1% Excellent. It would be in the southern far southwest regions, or it'd be in the south central regions of the state where we did get a little bit of moisture. Other than that, there's been a long period of time before we've had measurable rainfall in many places of the state. In fact, and a lot of locations, it's been around them out in the panhandle 235 days, since we've had a quarter inch of rain in those regions. And in many instances, in northwest Oklahoma, we've gone 120 days, 180 days where we've been in the same situation less than a quarter inch rain and measurable rainfall. And then that really hurts us in northwest Oklahoma, because that's where our large wheat production area is.

[Paul] Okay, I guess I didn't fully understand Oklahoma's history here. Would you say that 100 days without rain is something that most could say, Yeah, that happens. Is that a regular occurrence? Or I mean, because like if we go 30 days without a rain here in the Corn Belt, that's a huge deal. But what's what's considered dry, you don't really like it. We need rain every 45 days or 60 days, right? 

[Mike] Well, there's at least some type of measurable rainfall, usually every 20 to 30 days. And I would say in some of your larger waiting in some of your larger wheat production counties in north central northwest Oklahoma, oftentimes, you know, you'll you'll get one to two inch rains at a time. So to go those distances with less than a quarter of an answer that that certainly is abnormal. From from what we generally see. I think that no doubt we've been in a long term drought the last 10 years or so some of this is mirroring probably what we've seen in the 50s and what we've seen in the 30s. But, you know, it's not as uncommon to see these longer periods where we don't receive rainfall in the Panhandle regions but still 235 days without measurable rainfall at that amount. I mean, that's that's a that's a pretty extreme period of time. And so you know, there's an impact just overall for crop production, whether it be other summer crops, as well as pasture and range land to where we've really seen some really tough situations for producers in that region this year, I think our farming practices, no doubt are better than what we had seen in the Dust Bowl. But in some instances, just because there has not been moisture for any type of growth on anything, we've had some really rough days with the high winds this this past spring, to where it was almost like dust, dust bowl conditions, in some places at times.

[Paul] In the eastern part of the state, are they kind of going? Well, we have some rain, I mean, is that you have to just take it when you can, right.

[Mike] Right. And, and so the eastern part of the state has, has still kind of been on par with what they normally would get, they generally get more rainfall in those regions of the state. But that's just not where the majority of our wheat production takes place. In fact, there's just, I would say, probably 5% of our wheat production comes east of I 35, where the rainfall is happening. So it's going to have an impact overall, on crop numbers. You know, I'm a little surprised that the market hasn't really reacted just to how dire the situation is here. In the Southern Plains, based on the same situation, Texas is going through the same thing in West Texas, we're seeing the same thing through central Kansas and western Kansas, where a large portion of their wheat belt exist, and also seeing the same thing in eastern Colorado. And I would say that the situation is probably even more dire, when you talk to producers in the Kansas region and just look at the Mesonet readings of where they've been with extreme and exceptional drought conditions in those areas, too. And so, you know, we're we're, we're certainly looking at a larger impact of significance, I think just on how this overall crop is going to be for hard red winter wheat in this region. I think that we are seeing a lot of production in other parts of the world. And that has, that has been why the market hasn't reacted up to this point in time. And I know, we're only one piece of the pie or the piece of the puzzle. But But I don't know that the market has really, you know, factored in just to how bad it is, I think that they think, you know, oh, well, we'll wait till we crop production numbers start being reported, which in Oklahoma, that'll be on May 2 with the Oklahoma Grain and Feed, that'll be the first estimate for this crop year. And then the Kansas wheat tour, their crop estimates will be coming out the third week of May. But I just have to think that the market is going to start reacting at some point when those numbers are being reported. Because just based off of my experience of the last 15 years at the wheat commission, we've had some tough years 2014 Was it was a tough year for us at 51 million bushels. 2018 was also a tough year at 52 million bushels, we had some late freeze situations and drought conditions and those years. But I think that this year up to this point in time looks much, much worse than those years. And so, you know, I don't want to give my estimates out before they come out next week, based off of my assessments, I will say that I think that, you know, certainly we're going to be looking at a much worse situation for crop production than we did in those years of 2014 and 2018.

[Paul] So closer to that to 2011 is what you're saying. 

[Mike] 2011 was also a bad crop production year. Those numbers up to this point on estimates were very unfavorable. We had extremely high temperatures in 2011. And we got the crop harvested. And actually there was some late freeze situations in 2011 that affected our estimates up to this point in time. But we still had moisture up to certain points before the crop harvest where we came in stronger that year. But then after we got the crop harvested that that light June, we went like 100 days over 100 degrees with the 100 degree temps. And it certainly did have an impact. It just had an impact at a different time. So we didn't see the crop production loss in the year of 2011, like we did in 14 and 18. And certainly, we're gonna see that that same type of loss now in this year, it's just I think it's just inevitable it would something would have, you know, it has to be a miracle for us not to not to have the same type of numbers that we were looking at in in 2014 or 18. And the rain is going to help us. You know, I think there's areas in the central part of the state where there, there are producers that are management intensive and the way that they're doing their methods and in those instances, you know, you look at going you know 100 to 125 days without any moisture at all from planting, it's really kind of phenomenal just to even think that there could be something alive out in the field in those instances, but there are areas that, you know, look like they are going to still make 20 to 25 bushels per acre. And I think this rain in those instances is really going to help the wheat stretch at this point in time. And so I'm hopeful maybe, maybe it'll be a little bit better. You know, it's really kind of a mixed bag, when you look out in fields across the state to, again, you're you're better ground on some of your farms look like it may make 30 bushels per acre or 35. And then you'll get into areas where you're on just real marginal ground, and then that's what's going to really bring the yield down in these instances where, where it may make anywhere from five to 10 bushels per acre. And then just, you know, just talking with producers, once you get west of 81 Highway, which is you know, 25 to 30 miles west of I 35. Once you really get on in in those regions, it just really changes and a lot of that crop has already been disastered out all across the state and Western, northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle regions.

[Paul] So what is the dry last 235 days mean for you moving forward after this crop?

[Mike] You know, I just think, you know, producers are probably looking at it certain situations of contemplation. And what they're going to do, you know, an inch to two inches of moisture certainly is is is wonderful news for us. One thing I've noticed just in the fields of southwest Oklahoma, you can tell that there is moisture in the soil profile, but there is no water in the ditches anywhere you look. So it has taken it up. So by no means do I think that this means that we are out of out of a long term drought at this point in time. So you know, I think producers are going to weigh options maybe to put summer crops out. And in some of these regions. Of course, I think that producers are making those management decisions right now in southwest Oklahoma, for dryland cotton, but you know, in areas where they irrigate out of the Lugert-Altus Irrigation District, you know, the lake is is really dry, so they're not going to have the water yet at that point in time. So that that is still a consideration that producers are gonna have to take with with management decisions that they're making. And, you know, as you get into north central Oklahoma, where we see a lot of soybean production in the summer months, I would suspect producers are are weighing at those options to get to go into that. But again, I think that they're they're being cautious about what they're doing it because it's going to take more than then one or two inches of moisture to be making those management decisions. The other thing is, is that where we have had crop losses, a lot of times if the crop doesn't make, we will, we will go ahead and cut that for hay that we crop for hay for forage purposes for cattle. And in many instances, producers were hoping that, you know, the hay situation is extremely dire for cattle producers, I think you were going to you know, see that as an option. But the crop just really didn't even have enough forage to to make hay. So in those instances, we really took a loss on that that as well. Right now at this point in time.

[Paul] We had a conversation about six months ago with you know, the noted livestock expert there at Oklahoma State and it was already a tough story then for livestock producers you have many of your members are multi crop and livestock as well. Sometimes one supposed to help balance the other one. This is just tough all around. Is there any give me a little bit of give me some sunshine somewhere, Mike, give me a silver lining here for someone?

[Mike] Well, cattle prices have been higher. But you know, it's been really hard for the cattle producers as well. In many instances, they were trying to hold on to their herds. And I think on the cow calf side that you know, the producers have had to look with liquidating herds so that that's been a challenge. Again, I think there was this hope that there would be at least some type of of system or mechanism for hay on the crop if it didn't make and, you know, there are places where they are laying down hay. But I don't think that the the amount of hay that we've seen in years where maybe where there was a crop loss before where wheat production has gone into that is anything like we've ever seen before. And so I think it's still going to be a really tough period for individuals running cattle or if they have a cow calf operation. Because you know, it's going to help things as far as pasture growth and things like that. But the one thing that the that I've just seen this spring driving around the state as well as at the grasslands have not have not come back as fast as what they normally would in the spring just because we haven't had the moisture to replenish them. So I think you know certainly things are going to look at a lot different a day or two from now than what they have. But I don't I don't think that it's a magic bullet to get us out of some of these situations that producers are dealing with right now.

[Paul] Yeah. And that was a common conversation topic I had with a producer in the in the Panhandle a couple of days ago, who was talking about exactly what you're saying, it's my, my pasture is dry, and nothing's gonna help it anytime soon. So Mike, I guess, for a national story, or for a national audience looking at what's Oklahoma, what do you want to be the parting wisdom of you know what your situation is? And not necessarily anybody can help. But just to know about what's going on there?

[Mike] Well, you know, I always, I always try not to be overly negative. I don't like to be all doom and gloom. But I just I do hope that consumers, as well as policymakers realize that it's really been a difficult past year and a half for our individuals in production agriculture, just due to the significant drought. And I know we have a lot of other things going on in the world that are impacting the market and, and, and pricing. And so, you know, I think it's only going to take one major event maybe to change that discussion, we see that all the time, whenever we see exports being limited other Ukraine region, based on the issues that they're having over there. And then when things get to flowing, again, that seems to be impacting the market, we seem to have a lot more wheat now coming out of Australia that we didn't have three to four years ago, because they were in the same situation we were in. And so I think that's impacting our markets right now. But I just I hope that individuals making purchasing decisions for the milling industry in the US and globally realized that the United States, while we're not going to run out of wheat, or flour, you know, at this point in time, it's probably probably one of the worst crops that I have seen in the Southern Plains, in my lifetime, and I've talked to a couple of producers just in my region, the other day one was 71 years of age, and one was 52 years of age. And they had said the same thing. They've never experienced anything like this in their life. And I think part of that is, is the lack of moisture, and then the extreme winds that we have had too, as well, I mean, just, you know, going for five days with a 40 to 50 mile an hour wind gust. And then the warmer temperatures that had come earlier, all just kind of have created a perfect storm for really a challenging time for us in agriculture.

[Paul] I guess let's leave it at this, Mike. What is the mentality? I mean, the farmers always optimistic. They always think we're gonna put it in rains will come something will work for us. How do you keep the spirits up of producers here in two to six months when they're making decisions on the next crop? Go ahead and plan it. Rains gonna come? How what, tell me get me in the head of a producer of over there?

[Mike] Well, I think you're right. I think as producers, we are always eternal optimist. And we always try to find a way to make something out of nothing. And so I think that, you know, oftentimes out of out of bad situations, good things come. And I think that, you know, this too shall pass. We've gone through these periods in time before, if you look back in history, I think this is just one of those times where we're really having some of those struggles from Mother Nature. And I'm hopeful with the rain that we have received, since it is the first amount of measurable rainfall all across western Oklahoma, that maybe we will get into a different weather system and things will be more positive for us a month or two from now.

[Paul] We'll see how it all shakes out. Mike Schulte. Thank you so very much. I appreciate it. Thank you, Paul. Thanks to Chad Bell and Mike Schulte, for their time on this installment of the MToM Show podcast. New episodes come out each and every Tuesday. Follow or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And we'll come right into your device. Kind of cool, isn't it? We'll see you next time. Bye, bye.

Contact: Paul.Yeager@IowaPBS.org